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SSP Daily Digest: 10/8

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 3:10 PM EDT


• IA-Sen: Check out the nosedive in Chuck Grassley's approvals, polled by SurveyUSA but helpfully arranged in an easy-to-view downward trajectory by Senate Guru. He's down from 71/22 in January to 50/40 in September. Was his bad faith negotiating on health care so transparent that it moved his numbers this much? At any rate, this ought to provide some encouragement to high (or at least medium) profile Dems still considering the race.

• NC-Sen: Not much change in the newest PPP look at the North Carolina Senate race, although Richard Burr might be benefitting a bit from broader Republican momentum. Burr's approval is still a paltry 36/35, but he's beating Generic Dem by 45-34 now (he lost that race 41-38 in June). He beats named Democratic opponents by at least 10 points, including Rep. Bob Etheridge 44-33 and SoS Elaine Marshall 44-32.

• NV-Sen: This is not the headline you want for the launch of your campaign in Nevada, where support of the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump is something akin to support for syphilis: "Yucca Dump Backer Runs for Senate." The dump backer in question is Sue Lowden.

• KS-Gov, Sen: Nowhere is a bigger recruiting disaster for the Dems than Kansas, where they don't have anybody lined up for the open seats for either Senate or Governor. However, it now sounds like state Dem party chair Larry Gates is expected to enter the gubernatorial race. The Senate race is a bigger question mark, although state Treasurer Dennis McKinney hasn't exactly ruled it out.

• MD-Gov: Bill Clinton is doing some fundraising for someone not named Kendrick Meek. He'll headline a fundraiser this week for Gov. Martin O'Malley (a Hillary endorser in 2008). O'Malley has yet to draw a noteworthy opponent for 2010.

• FL-08: Although the GOP is waiting around for state Sen. Daniel Webster to make up his mind on a run, another less-known Republican figure is charging straight into the race: 30-something real estate developer Armando Gutierrez Jr., who's expected to announce his candidacy today. Gutierrez, via his father (who was spokesman for the Elian Gonzalez family during that bit of nastiness), is well-connected in the Cuban community. (Although, with the exception of ex-Sen. Mel Martinez, there's not much of a Cuban political community in the Orlando area.)

• HI-01: State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa got a boost today, with an endorsement from EMILY's List. This will give the progessive Hanabusa a nationwide fundraising profile to go against moderate ex-Rep. Ed Case in the open seat primary.

• MN-01: GOP State Sen. Julie Rosen is considering a race against Rep. Tim Walz in the rural 1st District. Rosen, however, is a prominent moderate, and she might be on the losing end of a GOP intramural fight, much as happened to state Sen. Dick Day in the 2008 primary.

• NY-15, Gov: Weird rumors were going around last week that the dual dilemmas of David Paterson and Charlie Rangel would be solved by Rangel stepping down and Paterson being given the Democratic nomination by party bosses in the ensuing special election, giving him a nice permanent job in NY-15 to pry him out of the Governor's Mansion. Well, yesterday Paterson said thanks but no thanks.

• NY-29: This is kind of cryptic: Rep. Eric Massa says he'll be making an important annoucement on the 10th. It may just be an announcement of his re-election, but it's strangely worded; I'll leave it to you to parse the verbiage.

• MT-St. Sen.: Legal trouble for the Montana state Senator who was behind the wheel in the drunk boating accident that injured Rep. Denny Rehberg and several others. Greg Barkus was hit with three felony charges for his role in the accident.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/8
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/8 | 71 comments
Corzine!
The pair of polls out today from SurveyUSA and Democracy Corps prove that if the voters won't like Corzine, the Corzine campaign will just beat the sh*t out of the competition until they do!
Yup
Corzine has a real shot.  
[ Parent ]
That's how New Jersey rols

[ Parent ]
Odd gender breakdown in Survey USA
Unusual to have more men than women. Basically a tossup now though and still more than three weeks to grow the trend into a lead.
[ Parent ]
Yup, I think that's probably a false finding
though there's an outside chance that it reflects the excitement of the Republican base in this cycle.

In any case, I would be, ahem, sweating profusely if I were Chris Christie.  

[ Parent ]
I recrunched the numbers for men vs woman
I was very conservative in my estimate giving woman a 51 to 49 edge over men considering that PPP did 53 to 47 and CNN exit polls had 54 to 46.
The new results
Christie 42%
Corzine  41%
Daggett  14%
Other     1%
Undecided 2%

Corzine can absolutely win this if he keeps pushing the mamograms issue.

[ Parent ]
Corzine leads by 3 in GQR poll
[ Parent ]
LT gov debate tonight in NJ
Kim Guadagno vs Loretta Weinberg vs Frank Esposito

Kim Guadagno comes off awful in public

listen to her at the end, she sound like a wacko


[ Parent ]
Don't forget
Christie "throws his weight around":


[ Parent ]
Who's running with who(m)?
I'm guessing Guadagno is Christie's running-mate?
[ Parent ]
Yes. (n/t)

[ Parent ]
Lt. Gov. nominees
State Senator Loretta Weinberg is Corzine's running mate. She's from Teaneck, in Bergen County.

Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno is Christie's running mate. She's from Monmouth Beach.

Frank Esposito, a longtime administrator and history professor at Kean University, is Daggett's running mate. He's from Ocean Township, in Monmouth County.

I actually wasn't able to watch the debate tonight, but I taped it and will be watching it pretty soon.  

[ Parent ]
I watched it
It was a lively, confrontational battle, waged mostly between Weinberg and Guadagno. Esposito seemed to be trying to portray himself as the "serious" candidate of the three, but he was surely overshadowed by their sparring. Frankly, I thought Guadango gave the strongest, most forceful performance, although she also struck me as overly-abrasive at times. Weinberg was nothing to write home about.
[ Parent ]
McDonnell is now up by 9
in latest WaPo poll.
Well, I'm not one for hyperbole...
...but yeah, I think Deeds is probably done. I don't expect Obama to stump for him, and I imagine fundraising begins going more the way of NJ and NY-23. Say hello to Governor McDonnell.
[ Parent ]
Okay, I'm convinced
Deedsy's pretty much down for the count.  Maybe the Washington Post editorial page will bail his butt out again, but I'm not terribly sanguine on this one.

Corzine, on the other hand, looks to be gaining real steam. I think the most optimal/realistic outcome we can hope for on Nov. 3 is for one lost governorship (not terribly surprising), one retained governorship (actually quite surprising), and... knock on wood... a pickup of one House seat (in real terms the most significant of the three).

[ Parent ]
In *real* terms, each of the governorships is more important than a single House seat.
Especially when they're such big states.  Virginia should be a swing state again in 2012, and New Jersey has marriage equality on its table, as well as many more local issues that a Republican governor could fuck up.

For short-term political purposes though, NY-23 is pretty important for the House.  Demoralizing the GOP and its donors now, and remoralizing Democratic freshmen and challengers, would be worth an awful lot.  Especially if we get a moderates vs conservatives fight out of it.  Bring the popcorn!

[ Parent ]
NY-23 Prediction
It's still early, but B/S'ing is good for the soul:

Owens--40
Scozzafava--35
Hoffmann--25

McHugh's Dem opponent got 35% of the vote in 2008. So I'm just basing everything for the Dem off of that.

[ Parent ]
I think Scozzafava will win
But I'm not much of a prophet, so let's just wait and see. :-)
[ Parent ]
I Don't Buy It
Considering that Dems have made such inroads in VA in the past eight years, Deeds' floor is 48 percent. Because McDonnell has waged such a competitive campaign, his floor is def 48 percent, too. I still assert they're fighting over 4 percent of ppl.

I say Deeds wins by hundreds of votes on election night. But he has his work cut out for him. Curtail the negative campaigning and go out on a positive note.

[ Parent ]
It's more like
Deeds' floor is 45%, McDonnell's floor is 49%. Deeds' only chance of winning is a third come-from-behind surge in the last days of the campaign.

Also, I'm sick of the "Washington Post saved him" crap. If that were true, why did he win overwhelmingly in Richmond and Hampton Roads?

[ Parent ]
The big mo
Plus, support for McAuliffe was very soft in Richmond and Hampton Roads.
[ Parent ]
KS Gov and Sen
Somebody please explain to me how we are benefitting from Sibelius in DC.
She never had any intention of running for Senate anyway
so we get a competent HHS Secretary.  
[ Parent ]
Please explain
Please explain how we would have benefited from her in the Senate.
[ Parent ]
You don't think having a Democratic Senator from Kansas
for the first time since the 1930s would be a good thing?
[ Parent ]
It Would Be Another ConservaDem Adopting the Affect of "Moderation" (n/t)

[ Parent ]
Sebelius would have been about as good as McCaskill has been.
And I think McCaskill has been quite satisfactory, given that there's only 100 senate seats available and they can't all be from Connecticut.
[ Parent ]
McCaskill's Great
Did you see the way she handled that town hall?

I'm thinking a Dem from Kansas would be a lot like a certain Dem from Nebraska who serves in the Senate.

Ahem--toupee!

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I don't agree.
"A Dem from Kansas," sure.  But Sebelius proved to be pretty courageous in her time as governor.  My only specific memories are of vetoing the coal fired power plants, but there were other things to admire besides the mere act of getting elected, of that I am confident.

Sebelius was no Freudenthal or Brad Henry.  She was not a generic DINO.

It's all moot now, of course.

[ Parent ]
Brad Henry
I lived in Oklahoma for almost my entire life and Henry has done a great job as governor of Oklahoma.
[ Parent ]
Perhaps a Run for Prez?
I dunno--she may still be considering a run for Prez in '16, and a voting record from representing KS for six years would have been hard to defend to libs and conservatives.
[ Parent ]
versus Hillary?

[ Parent ]
Good Point
Who knows, Obama did it, I'm pretty sure others would at least consider it.
[ Parent ]
It's all relative
She would've replaced Brownback, after all.
[ Parent ]
Jezus
Say senator Tiahrt for 24 years.

It's simply unbelievable that people here can actually say they prefer hard right nut jobs to sane Democrats in the current administration holding power.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

[ Parent ]
I agree
Even if Sebelius were to be a Senator in the Ben Nelson style, that's still rediculously better than Sam Brownback.  Bad Democrats are better than fringe Republicans.
[ Parent ]
I dont mind the conservative Senators
because they generally pick and choose the issues they will screw us on.  The House seems to have plenty that wont ever vote with us on a tough on ever, but the Senators, they pick and choose.
[ Parent ]
Perfect Senate
Is having 60 senators with 50+ being solid, and less than ten blue dogs, like we have now, BUT the Majority Leader needs to be able to get all 60 in the caucus to vote for cloture.  That's what is important.
[ Parent ]
You're kidding, right?
You don't think Sebelius would have been a better senator than a Republican? You seem to think that on a scale of 1-10, if 10 is the best and 1 is the worst, it's better to have a 1 or 2 than a 7. And with all due respect, I think that's very illogical thinking.
[ Parent ]
Two words
Not Daschle.  
[ Parent ]
fry
The MT. State Senator is a republican.
Too bad the Montana Senate isn't closer (27-23R)
because this guy will almost certainly be resigning in the near future.
[ Parent ]
WEll it isn't too bad
if we won it'd be 26-24... so all we'd have to do is win one more seat and it'd be a tie... And we have a dem gov so would that mean that the dems would control the senate?
[ Parent ]
Well the Lt. Gov is a Republican,
although he was elected on a fusion ticket with Schweitzer so perhaps he'd defer to the governor's wishes.
[ Parent ]
according to wikipedia
If the state house is a tie the sitting governor's party is in control.  Not sure if it is different for the state senate.  Still looking that up.
[ Parent ]
Found it
the senate is the same, so if dems can tie it up in 2010 then we will have control.  Also ten repubs are forced out by term limits along with five dems.  So it is possible we can tie it up and take it back.
[ Parent ]
Thanks for looking that up.
I just assumed that the Lt. Gov. broke ties, as they do in most states. Montana has an interesting law regarding ties...if New York had such a law, last summer would've been about 40% less stressful (since it would've just taken Monserrate to restore the State Senate to the Democrats).

You inspired me to look into Montana law regarding state senate vacancies. Since Barkus' term is up at the end of next year, it looks like local officials would appoint his replacement (who must be from the same party), who would serve until the next regular election. If I'm reading the law correctly, a special election would only occur if there was a vacancy 85 or more days before the general election in the second year of a senate term (which in this case would've been 2008). So the Montana Senate would still be 27R-23D even if Barkus resigned. Ah well.

[ Parent ]
This may hurt worse than expected
He's the majority Whip so it could make the whole caucus look bad.  Also he was first elected in 2003 so he can run again.  If he runs he probably loses, if he doesn't run then that's 11 repubs not running for reelection versus five for dems.
[ Parent ]
I did see that he is the majority whip
so perhaps that can sully the state senate leadership in the eyes of the electorate. Also, didn't the senate majority leader make headlines last year for badmouthing the governor or something similar? I seem to recall something but I don't remember enough of the details to know where to look. As for Barkus this article says that he would not be able to run for reelection next year due to term limits. I guess state senators can only serve two four-year terms.
[ Parent ]
KS Dems
Home state pains--KS Dems are such a mess. Larry Gates & Charles Schollenberger would be decent enough sacrificial lambs against Brownback & (hopefully) Moran, I just wish we could get candidates who have a real shot of winning. Personally, I'd rather see Lt. Gov. Troy Findley go up against Brownback. He has elected experience, a statewide profile, and as Sebelius' former chief of staff, could make the argument that he'd be an extension of her (popular) rule as opposed to wingnutty Brownback.

Six & McKinney could replenish the statewide bench if they win, but that's a big "if". We've got state Rep. Raj Goyle putting up a fight for the open seat in KS-04, but I think the race that's the most winnable is getting no attention: KS-02.

Lynn "Great White Dope" Jenkins ran as a moderate to defeat then-Congresswoman Nancy Boyda in '08, but in trying to shore up her base has since turned into a gaffe-prone handmaiden for Rush Limbaugh. State Sen. Hensley, quoted in the article, would be a strong candidate against her, and wouldn't have to give up his state Senate seat. But man, whatever happens, KS Dems are probably screwed for yet another cycle.

I'm just filling out my Philly absentee ballot now
and I'm delighted to see that, for the first time, postage is paid on the return envelope. Does anyone know of a law change that would have made this possible for a domestic absentee ballot?  
I got my Delco ballot.
  I have to pay postage.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
[ Parent ]
Intersting
I wonder where Philly found the money. . .? (When you think about it, it's not a bad move; the people who would notice might become better-disposed to the board of elections, an elected body).
[ Parent ]
IA-Sen: Still waiting for that mystery candidate who'll give Grassley the race of his life.
Those declining Grassley approvals could help make the case to him/her.
But maybe it's not a politician. Are there any famous Democrat sports figures from IA?
It looks like it's Roxanne Conlin
[ Parent ]
Outside of Vilsack, Miller and Braley
Probably the best possible get. Grassley is certainly favored but who knows what can happen.
[ Parent ]
if that's who it is, sounds good.
And so everything breaks correctly, maybe we'll get another female Senator.
[ Parent ]
Of all the races, we need a strong candidate here
All the clucking about Grassley being unbeatable should have gone out the window when he was just a few points ahead of Vilsack in that one poll this year.

It really and truly sucks to be an incumbent right now, of either party.  We have a reasonable shot at Grassley with a strong candidate, especially an aggressive visionary one.

Maybe more importantly, giving Grassley a pass will hurt Culver.  We need to be contesting Iowa like it is a blue state, not like we are desperately fighting to hold on to what we got.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

[ Parent ]
Surprised President Clinton
Hasn't been to Jersey. Corzine was there for Hillary as much as anybody. Certainly in terms of visibility.
MN-Gov
St Paul Mayor Chris Coleman (D) will not run for governor.

http://www.startribune.com/pol...

My guess is that this will help neighboring  Mayor RT Rybak but I really do not know.

Wow, Im shocked
My one friend from college is his  finance director and then my other friend is just other hired staff.  They told some of my College Democrat friends that'll be announcing Oct 26th that he's running and to please be on hand to get some bodies at the announcement.  One of them blabbed to me, I blabbed to one of the friends that I knew and so then I got late night phone call the next day making sure I dont say anything on the blogs.

Quite shocked, Coleman made a lot of big hires and my friends telling me the exact date he was going to announce leads me to believe that either he decided last minute not to.  Or maybe my friends just lied to get us off the right scent.

[ Parent ]
DE SEN
Castle raised just $57,600 in the months of July, August and September, according to a report

But Castle began October with $853,000 left in his campaign account

CQ politics

Delaware campaigns are cheap
Unless they buy Philadelphia TV.
[ Parent ]
I think for a real campaign in DE
You have to go up in Philly.
[ Parent ]
Yup
Markell did, and it probably made all the difference in his primary race.  
[ Parent ]
Carney didn't? eom

[ Parent ]
Markell outspent Carney by a large margin
it's the only way he could win, especially with the state party running ads on behalf of Carney.
[ Parent ]
GA-08: Another Republican challenger to Marshall.
He had actually filed with the FEC weeks ago, but this is the first time I've seen the media take note of him:

http://www.macon.com/local/sto...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

CA-Sen: Boxer Up 14 Over Fiorina
Gibbs: Obama Supports Dem for NYC Mayor
SSP Daily Digest: 10/8 | 71 comments

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