Survey USA (10/30-11/02, likely voters for primaries, registered voters for general, 8/15-17 in parens):
Rand Paul (R): 35 (26)
Trey Grayson (R): 32 (37)
Other: 15 (20)
Undecided: 18 (17)
(MoE: 4.7%)
Dan Mongiardo (D): 39 (39)
Jack Conway (D): 28 (31)
Other: 18 (17)
Undecided: 16 (14)
(MoE: 4.1%)
Check out those GOP primary numbers. If Rand Paul knocks off Trey Grayson, that really would be quite the coup. The Paulists represent a different, weirder strain of outsider Republicans than do the teabaggers, but I almost wonder if they might make common cause in a race like this. On the other hand, I've gotten the sense that Greyson fits the mold of the tribal conservative, so he ought to satisfy the extremists despite his establishment cred. Despite his millions, Ron Paul's high-water mark in the GOP primaries last year was just 24% (Idaho), so I'm a bit skeptical that Rand's stronger fundraising alone is the reason for his surge - or perhaps this just means the comparison of son to father is imperfect. Either way, I'm eager to hear from folks on the ground in Kentucky. (And I also want to see if other pollsters confirm this movement.)
The Dem primary numbers are a bit frustrating. Despite getting crushed on the fundraising front and having several embarrassing tapes get released, Dan Mongiardo still leads Jack Conway. Not only do I like Conway far better, he performs better against both Republicans (more on that in a moment). Still, there are a lot of votes up for grabs, and the primary isn't until May. What's more, Mongiardo is beating Conway 2-to-1 among self-identified liberals (who make up a fifth of the Dem electorate); given that Conway is largely running to Mongiardo's left, he ought to be able to make serious headway with that group. For his part, Conway just put out an internal poll from the Benenson Strategy Group showing him down just three points.
Dan Mongiardo (D): 38 (40)
Trey Grayson (R): 48 (46)
Undecided: 14 (16)
Jack Conway (D): 39 (37)
Trey Grayson (R): 43 (44)
Undecided: 18 (18)
Jack Conway (D): 44 (43)
Rand Paul (R): 39 (38)
Undecided: 17 (19)
Dan Mongiardo (D): 43 (43)
Rand Paul (R): 43 (41)
Undecided: 15 (16)
(MoE: ±2.4%)
The fact that Mongiardo has slipped all the way back to ten points behind Grayson troubles me, as does the fact that he's tied with Paul. Meanwhile, Conway's numbers have improved a touch. Still, a lot can and probably will change between now and election day. The real news, though, is that Mitch McConnell and his merry band of potentates have a lot to worry about right now. |
