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NY-23: Scozzafava Getting Obliterated in Late Fundraising

by: DavidNYC

Mon Oct 26, 2009 at 10:25 PM EDT


A few questions have come up about the FEC's so-called "48-hour reports." They're actually pretty simple. From a PDF on the FEC's website:

Who Must File FEC Form 6

Principal campaign committees must file 48-hour notices on contributions of $1,000 or more received after the 20th day, but more than 48 hours, before 12:01 a.m. of the day of any election in which the candidate participates. ...

When to File

FEC Form 6 must be received by the federal and state (where required) filing offices within 48 hours after acampaign's receipt of any contribution of $1,000 or more received after the 20th day, but more than 48 hours before, the date of any election in which the candidate participates.

The candidates in NY-23 have been filing 48-hour reports since the close of the reporting period for their "pre-special" fundraising reports, Oct. 15th. But because the 48-hour reports have to be filed very quickly, all three campaigns had already posted a bunch of them before they were required to file their pre-special reports. We gathered those numbers in the right-hand column of the chart in this post.

As you can see from the link, Bill Owens was already kicking ass in this department as of last Thursday. But since then, the disparity has grown much, much greater. Both Owens and Hoffman have each filed three new 48-hour reports; Scozzafava, by contrast, has filed just one. The overall tally is therefore no surprise:

     Owens:   $73,100
     Hoffman: $43,100
     Dede:    $ 2,000

Now, these reports only cover big ($1,000+) donations, so I suppose it's possible that Dede is raking in a lot of last-minute small-dollar checks. But I tend to doubt that. One thing we do know for sure is that Republican members of Congress - who seldom write checks for less than four figures - have all but forsaken her. Fewer than twenty have given to her so far, and none in her final hour of need. Meanwhile, by my count, over sixty have given to Owens, and many more than once - giving money via campaign committees and leadership PACs, and making donations for 2009 and 2010. This flow has continued unabated - just yesterday, Rep. Joe Crowley's PAC threw down another $5,000, and Rep. Charlie Gonzales came in for $2,000.

I'm not sure even Obi Wan Kenobi could help Scozzafava now - not that he would.

DavidNYC :: NY-23: Scozzafava Getting Obliterated in Late Fundraising
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Pawlenty is supporting Hoffman
because he feels like Hoffman could win the same way Pawlenty did, with no where near 50% of the vote. hahahaha and because he wants the GOP nomination in 2012 (which he has no chance of getting)  

Lesson for R candidates in 2010 (unless Scozzafava wins)
Carry a teabag in your pocket, or else your money will dry up.

This is a little troublesome
I do not want her to collapse completely, otherwise Hoffman might begin to consolidate Republican support.

I, too, have worried about this, but the NRCC and RNC...
...are continuing to prop her up.

We need DeDe at least to end up in the teens on election night.  I think she'll get that, she's got too much institutional support to dive into Arthur Schlesinger territory.

And if you don't remember who Arthur Schlesinger is, shame on you for calling yourself a SSPer!  :-)

He was the Republican who got 10% against Lieberman and Lamont in CT-Sen 2006.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Shame on me, a pox on my house!......
It's Alan Schlesinger, not Arthur.

I am not worthy!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Bonus points if you remember the name
"Alan Gold". :)

[ Parent ]
From memory
Was that the fake name he used to evade a casino blacklist?  

[ Parent ]
Ding Ding Ding!!! Yer a winner! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I was wondering why you were asking about
a great historian.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Scozzafava is still getting endorsements - and Hoffman's gaffes should hit too
Papers, David Martin (congressman before McHugh), Most local Rs are still endorsing Scozzafava.

Here's the Watertown paper on Hoffman, w/r/t Fort Drum

http://www.watertowndailytimes...

To obtain the endorsement, and campaign cash, of the conservative Club for Growth, Mr. Hoffman signed a statement promising not to request earmarks, which the group defines as any spending requested by only one chamber of Congress or not requested by the White House. By that definition, a total of $114 million in construction at Fort Drum - including weapons training facilities, improvements at Wheeler-Sack Army Airfield and a family support center - would not have been built this decade.


[ Parent ]
The Martin endorsement...
This further fuels my belief that at the end of the day, rank-and-file Republicans will come to Scozzafava's side. Yes, Hoffman's gonna rock the conservative/populist/idiot/Independent vote, but I think the Martin endorsement + Hoffman's Fort Drum gaffe + Newt Gingrich's "Scozzafava or bust" sentiment should all result in her netting at least 30% of the vote here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Disagree, I think DeDe doesn't sniff 30......
She's out of money.  The RNC and NRCC aren't coming close to keeping up with Owens and the DCCC, or even with Hoffman and CfG.  So her message (is there one?) isn't being heard.  All this sideshow stuff helps keep her from falling into the single digits for sure, but she could finish in the teens on election night.

Hoffman will finish 2nd.

Unless the Democratic GOTV is awful, as I noted in another comment here.  Then it's disaster for us, much worse than losing a 2-way to DeDe.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I agree
I think Dede comes in 3rd.  The last poll was before the gaffes and hiccups.  She doesn't have the money and she is losing momentum.  I don't think she get 30% and CLOSER to 20% is more like it.  If she falls below 20%, then Hoffman might win this.  

Once this election is in the bag, Obama needs to appoint another GOP congressman from a similiar district to something.  This has done more to widen the gap in the GOP than any legislation Obama has or could ever propose.

Multipication by division anyone?


[ Parent ]
Mary Bono Mack?
Anywhere she could go?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Would want to wait until the immigration debate is rolling to do that.
SoCal conservatives are probably reasonably fired up.  But activating the latino base of the district with immigration reform, and blowing up the conservative coalition with the issue, would be a jedi move.

For now, with cap-n-trade moving onto the table...  maybe a New Jersey district?  or Frank Wolf?  

I have to assume Mike Castle was offered a job a long time ago; it would have been political malpractice not to.  If they offered Peter King one, I'm sure they offered Mike Castle one, and probably Jim Gerlach too.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
On the Senate side
What ever happened to the brilliant idea of naming Olympia Snowe head of the Small Business Administration? Was it offered, and she just didn't take?

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
As soon as the rumor came up she immediately responded saying she would not take a cabinet position.


[ Parent ]
and, the SBA administrator isn't even Cabinet level anymore


[ Parent ]
And that's why I'm pretty sure
Scozzafava comes in second.  Yeah, Hoffman is picking up support from the likes of Santorum and Palin.  Big whoop, Scozzafava is getting local R support and that's much more important.  She's still going to lose, and badly, but I seriously doubt she's going to get under 20% as some here expect her to.

[ Parent ]
Anyone know anything about the quality of Owens' GOTV???......
This crazy race comes down to voter ID and dragging their asses out to the polls next Tuesday.

The one thing that worries me is that Hoffman's seat-of-pants operation could really cobble together some happy turnout among the real crazies.  They strike me as perhaps an impoverished cousin of the patchwork quilt GOTV work the Kerry campaign and allies had across the country in 2004.  It wasn't bad at all and got us all the targets in a lot of precincts in a lot of key states, including Ohio.  But it proved inferior to the top-down approach of the Bush operation.

Meanwhile, Dems have been less a patchwork quilt and much more top-down starting with Obama last year, with high-level voter targeting.

But ultimately a local campaign has to do the work, and I've heard or read nothing on what NY-23 Dems are doing on GOTV.

I think poor GOTV is the only way we lose.  But doing something poorly is easier than you might think, and there are a few billion failed candidates and campaigns out there to prove it!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


FWIW
Chuck Todd indicated earlier today (via Facebook/Twitter feed) that he suspected Owens had the edge on the ground by virtue of the heavy SEIU involvement.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
That's the sense the start party has
the local Dems are pouring a lot into Owens' campaign...think it's very likely he'll crack 40%.

I'm expecting a 41%-34%-25% type of race.  


[ Parent ]
DTOzone, are you in upstate NY? You sound like...
...you have access to some info on what's going on up there beyond what I can find on blogs or news sites.  If so, anything else you can share?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Does anyone know
when the last time Scozzafava had to run a race was? She might not have an existing operation.  

[ Parent ]
Quality of Owens GOTV?
This special election is at the same time as the off-year election for town and county seats.  While many local candidates run unopposed, if there is one contested local election, people will come in and vote.

I crunched the numbers for the NY-20 special election - 56% of the voters for the Presidential election showed up to vote on March 31. When you figure Presidential elections will have the highest turnout 56% percent isn't shabby.

Plus the scenario for the Democrats is that this is the best chance to flip the district since the Republicans are fighting among themselves.  That will drive their GOTV.


[ Parent ]
Thanks, that was another question I meant to ask but...
...forgot, whether other stuff is on the ballot.  I assumed there had to be, since that was the implied rationale for holding the special on November 3rd.

Purely local stuff doesn't really help all that much in turnout, but needless to say it brings out a few people who aren't targeted by the candidates or parties for the special.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Maybe a job for amster yoda this is


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Swing State Project gets a flyby
in the NYTimes on NY-23:

The seat - in a district where certain areas have been represented by Republicans since the 1800s, according to an analysis by the Swing State Project, a political blog - became vacant after President Obama appointed John M. McHugh, the district's long-serving Republican congressman, as secretary of the Army. It is the only Congressional seat that will be decided next week.


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Awesome - but inaccurate
The reporter seems to have forgotten CA-10.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
lol,
This is the kind of site that would instantly correct the NYTimes.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Many have
You would they they would know after so many missed it

[ Parent ]
The virus, it's spreading!
"This is the shot that needs to be fired to Republican leaders to wake them up," said former Representative Marilyn Musgrave of Colorado, who was one of the most outspoken conservatives in Congress until her defeat last year.

HA HA HA.

Incidentally, if I lived in the district that would be everything I'd need to go out and vote for Owens. These are some seriously scary people, and they can't be allowed to win elections north of Charlotte anymore. (To that end, what a massive statewide effup in Virginia this year. The Republican slate is insane, but it's going to win up and down the ticket.)


[ Parent ]
Steven Shannon
and Cucinelli? What the hell happened there? I seem to remember Democrats praising him as the strongest of Democrats three statewide candidates.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Republicans are energized
and Deeds failed to excite the Democratic base.  

[ Parent ]
How do people think Brian Moran would have done?
He's generally derided in places like the Republico as unelectable statewide, but he certainly would not have had problems exciting the base.  The Jim Moran-related fundraising issues were problematic.  But on issues, McDonnell is at least as extreme.

How do we think a Moran vs McDonnell race would have played out?

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
At the very least
I doubt he'd be in worse shape. Deeds isn't picking up the moderates/independents he needs to be viable. Moran would probably be doing even worse with them, but at least NoVa would give a fuck. I don't think he'd be the favorite, but it's possible that he might at least still be viable. I think we were pretty cocky at the beginning of '09, but realistically, this race was always going to be a little tricky. Moran may at least have a had a Howard Dean-type effect that built up the grassroots in VA such that it would make the state more Dem in the long run.

I have a friend who lives out there who's incredibly depressed by the whole situation and, while she'll show up to vote against McDonnell, really can't come up with much of a reason that Deeds deserves to be governor. How much of the base holds their nose and follows her lead will determine how close Deeds gets to 50% (maybe helping a few other Dems across the finish line in the process).  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Moran had no appeal outside of the beltway
The Post poll shows Deeds still winning Northern Virginia 56-43; Moran may have increased that margin a little, but he would have been killed everywhere else in the state.

[ Parent ]
Moran easily could have the SAME base problem right now......
Deeds' central problem is the same with the base as with swing voters:  he has no message, no "rationale for his candidacy" as Chuck Todd would put it, no "positive message" as many on the Virginia liberal blogs put it...it all adds up to the same thing:  Deeds hasn't said anything about himself to make people want to vote FOR him.

And that was Moran's problem in the primary, where he followed the same strategy vs. McAuliffe that Deeds followed vs. McDonnell.

Further, being viewed as a sure loser becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where one's own base doesn't turn out...why vote if you'll lose anyway?  People show up for Presidential elections anyway, but for anything else the perception of a candidate's chances can affect turnout.

And on top of that, Moran really did have a poor profile for downstate, as you asked.  He comes off as a NoVA liberal, with the negative caricatures downstaters attached to that.  And because of that, even in parts of NoVA like where I live, in McLean, his margins wouldn't necessarily have been any better than Deeds, especially if he's perceived as a sure loser as election day approaches.

We wouldn't be any better off now with Moran or McAuliffe.  They'd be struggling just as much, but for different reasons.  People forget that McDonnell was beating ALL our choices in ALL trial heat polls as far back as last winter and all the way through the primary.  McDonnell ALWAYS was the frontrunner because he was the more skilled candidate with a srong candidate profile.  Only McAuliffe among our choices had comparable campaign skills, and only Deeds had a similarly competitive candidate profile.  None of the three had both.  So it was always an uphill struggle.

Deeds was and still is the best choice because you really can't change your profile, but you can learn from past mistakes and good advisors and run a good campaign.  Unfortunately Creigh never did that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
This is one big lesson why
Being the blank canvass candidate is stupid.  I absolutely cannot stand when people running for office wont confirm themselves to a side on the issues, which is kind of what you described Deeds as sounding like.  Like when it took Tedisco however long to say he'd vote against the stimulus.  Before running for office, a candidate needs to decide on a message and an image and go with it.  Being wishy washy and trying to appeal to everyone just makes a candidate look weak and doesnt give anyone a reason to vote for them.

[ Parent ]
Shannon ran a bad campaign
His only advantage has turned out to be having more money than Cuccinelli.

[ Parent ]
Way to go on the NYT shout out!
My only fear is that if this site gets too much MSM coverage, we'll start getting innundated by the idiots who post comments on most of the other political blogs, instead of the reasoned, responsible, knowledgable bunch we have now.  There's a reason this is my "first read" blog every day!

[ Parent ]
either there is a fair bit of moderator clean-up here
or they haven't found our little political haven yet, because I have noticed the exact same thing: with a couple of notable exceptions, people from the "other side of the aisle" who post here appear somewhat reasonable and not at all like the bomb throwers who have taken over most other message boards (you ever see the boards over at Politico and WaPo and Time and other traditional media orgs?  they're crazier than Sarah Palin when she's forgotten to take her ritalin).

[ Parent ]
Jeez
Anyone else having major problems pulling up SSP tonight?

Male, 23, DC-At Large

Yes but it seems better now
n/t

[ Parent ]
Poor Dede
I bet she wishes every day that she'd just switched sides and run as a Democrat. Let this be a lesson to all potential party-switchers....doing it is much better than dealing with the Republican base.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

She applied to be the Dem nominee
but all of the tax problems in her brother's business that she invested in made them discount her.

[ Parent ]
Now the Minutemen have a pro-Hoffman poll
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

They don't even dare release internals (AFAIK - props to anyone who can find a website for these "Neigborhood Research" folks).



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