Great stuff, as always

The areas of Latino growth are, I think, the most important part of the story -- not just in the heavily Latino parts of the country captured here, but in smaller but significant numbers all over the country (even here in central Indiana).  Bottom line -- if the Republicans continue to be a party that appeals basically only to whites, they'll become a permanent minority party.  If we can build on the Latino support President Obama got (which, remember, many critics during the election said he wouldn't!), we're in a really, really good position.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 12:34:37 PM UTC

Hispanics

 I think we definitely can lock up Hispanics as Democrats if we can get them to vote for us in three straight elections. We already got two when Congressional Republicans in 2006 won 30% of the Hispanic vote and McCain only won 32%. I think it was more like 29% for McCain if you look at the areas where Hispanics voted.

I read this interesting article that said Hispanics will wait paitently for immigration reform until late 2010 when many will become impaitent. If Obama wants to lock up Hispanics as solid Democrats for a long time, he has to address immigration as soon as possible.
Getting Sotomayor definitely helped Obama but I do not know if Sotomayor has any coattails.

Also, Hispanic growth appears to be slowing since there are less jobs here, there are also less immigrants. Hispanics will keep growing because there is a pretty high birthrate among them.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 13:40:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Immigration reform

is next after health care.  They've already started working on it.  Although not sure where cap and trade fits in there.  (Yuck, I read too much redstate, I almost put cap and tax.)

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by: Andrew @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 15:33:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not just the right thing to do

but also the thing that would seal a D majority among Hispanics for many elections to come.  

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by: tietack @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 15:42:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Intersting

FWIW, I would expect PA-01 and PA-02 to get less black and more white as Philadelphia gentrifies. Here's an interesting question: when will the Florida "Jewish" districts give way to non-Cuban hispanic districts? There's no guarantee that retired Jews will move to Florida ad-infinitum. I don't think DWS or Wexler are in any immediate danger of a primary challenge, but I also don't think that they're in Congress for life--notwithstanding the partisan nature of their districts.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 13:15:24 PM UTC

well definately not Wexler

he's not in congress any more

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

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by: 707stuckinKCMO @ Sun Feb 28, 2010 at 15:42:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

David Scott

It's a fascinating thing that the Congressman seeing the biggest growth in black population, David Scott, was recently the victim of having a swastika painted on his office sign in the Atlanta burbs.  Scott, a black man, now represents a majority black district he's too conservative for.  That "painter" was out of touch and threatened .

Two key conservadems from Maryland are seeing large increases in black population: Steny Hoyer and Dutch Ruppersberger.

Gene Green turns 62 this week.  When he retires or is forced out, the next Congressman is Hispanic.  Since House pensions are no longer as generous as they were, I suspect he'll try to hold on for another 10 years or more.

Texas is now a majority minority state that demographically looks a lot more like California than the rest of the US.  Fewer Asians and more whites.  But majority minority and not heavily black.  IIRC (and I could be wrong) Gene Green and Lloyd Doggett are the only white Democrats in the House from Texas.  That's a fascinating political split.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 13:54:43 PM UTC

You forgot ....

Chet Edwards -- one of the most courageous members of the House, given how he votes vs. the political make-up of his district.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 14:11:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

wow, justified praise for a blue dog!

Sometimes, it seems like a torrent of people who don't want anything to do with D congressmen who do their best in R districts.

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by: tietack @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 14:32:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

he isnt a Blue Dog

he's that cool

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by: Andrew @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 15:35:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You made me look it up

Wow, you're right! However, he's still on the Open Left list of "Bush Dogs".

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by: tietack @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 15:41:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In my opinion, that list was just silly

IIRC, last time around Bowers wanted to primary most of the House leadership -- along with several Dems in very Republican districts, and practically half of the Congressional Black Caucus (OK maybe not half, but more than a couple).  Even outside of the merits of it, which I think are sketchy at very very best, it was political fantasy.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 18:10:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

While I agree with you on the merits

I cite the "Bush Dog" list to show that the move against moderates even in heavy R-leaning districts is serious.

While I think there's no excuse for blue dogs like Jim Cooper in heavy D districts, we need to nurture blue dog Ds in heavy R-leaning districts where their survival may be in question.

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by: tietack @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 19:46:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good find

Edwards is almost unique.  Gene Taylor in MS has a somewhat similar profile.  Jim Mattheson has the family name and Mormon/Rocky Mountain is different than southern.  The Salt Lake City area is very slightly bluing anyway.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 15:39:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gene Green's history is unusual

He has been the first and only representative of this district since its creation as a Hispanic majority district. It's not as if the district's demographics changed out from under him. For that reason, I think it would take an extraordinary challenge to defeat him.  

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by: brittain33 @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 15:05:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seems like a lot of opportunity after the 2010 census

Played right, it should enhance our prospects in 2012 and beyond.

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by: tietack @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 14:33:49 PM UTC

Small states

Small states with one or two House members are generally not too representative of the national population. And they are growing slowly.

Twelve states and DC have 3 or 4 electoral votes.  Three are growing faster than the national gain of 8.0% between 2000 and 2008: Idaho (+17.8%), Delaware (+11.4%), and Alaska (+9.5%).

Hawaii is the most diverse state in the Union with only 24.9% of the population non-Hispanic white and 39.9% Asian.  That doesn't cover Hawaiian Islanders.

Alaska and Delaware each have under 70% non-Hispanic whites but do it in different ways.  Delaware has a black population 20.9% and Alaska has a large native population.  All the others are less diverse and the largest minority in the Dakotas is native American.  Rhode Island has a surprising (to me) 11.6% of its population listed as Hispanic.

The District of Columbia remains barely majority black at 54.4%.

Rhode Island is at the cusp of losing its second House member.  Its population in 2008 would merit 1.51 House members.  Just glancing but Nebraska is likely to lose a seat which would make the Lee Terry seat and its one electoral vote a moot point.

The accuracy or inaccuracy of the Census is a major point.  Estimates run millions above the actual Census count and traditionally undercount minorities and poor people.  Traditional methods, quite frankly, benefit Republicans big time.  No wonder they spend so much effort undermining amy other method.  Only a traditional count, for example, has any possibility of saving three seat for Nebraska.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 16:30:59 PM UTC

RI's hispanic population

Not surprising to me, Providence is about 1/3 Hispanic and there are also communities in places like Central Falls and Cranston. Also I'm not sure if "Hispanic" includes Portuguese and Cape Verdeans, both of whom have large communities in RI.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 19:44:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think "Hispanic" does include Portuguese.

That is the case in some parts of California, especially Tulare County which is majority "Hispanic", but solidly Republican; 57-42 McCain (very Republican compared to the state). CA-21, which includes all of Tulare, is 43.4% Hispanic and was 56-42 McCain.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Wed Oct 14, 2009 at 00:47:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Asian population

What does this mean politically?

Is there a common voting pattern of Arabs, Indians, Pakistanis, Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Vietnamese, Philipinos and others ?

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by: fai calif @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 18:18:56 PM UTC

well,

I know that most of the growth is Chinese, Korean, and Indian, who all vote strongly Dem. I also know that Arabs used to be strongly Republican but that changed after 9/11. In most places the Asian pop is pretty well-mixed, only in a few areas does the ethnic comp make a difference (as in the Vietnamese population in northern Orange County).

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)

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by: Rupper @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 18:32:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would be surprised

if Indians vote solid Dem.  Just anecdotally, almost every Indian I have met in Florida is a Repub.  I could be wrong, but it seems counterintuitive.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 19:35:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indians are fairly solid dem

And by that I mean like 2:1. I should know, I'm Indian. And anecdotally most everyone voted democrats, although I'm from Illinois (don't know how representative that is). A lot of Indians are big fans of the Clintons though, so it was weird during the primaries. Older generation were Clinton supporters, younger people were Obama supporters.  

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by: sulthernao @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 21:39:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Solid

The Indian vote is solidly Democratic in NJ.  Parsippany is one example where voting in a town of roughly 50,000 people is closely tied up along ethnic lines.  Asians (mostly Indian) and Jewish people vote mostly Democratic; Italian-Americans vote Republican.  In one recent election the vote for mayor was divided by less than 50 votes.

9/11 has been mentioned here.  The paranoia of 9/11, at its worst, was personally threatening to some Asian Indian males who saw themselves as looking slightly "Arab."  Crazy, but true.

The Asian vote has played a huge role in turning once Republican areas of the suburbs into Democratic strongholds.  Bergen County, NJ and Northern Virginia come to mind.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 23:10:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not common to all

But of your list, the Vietnamese are the only solidly Republican group, though I suspect the Hmong refugees from Laos and neighboring areas are Republican due to the Vietnam War and their pro-US sympathies therein.  Some Japanese are, and Arabs used to be until 9/11.  Now...not so much.  They are now heavily Democratic, as are most other Asians.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 18:38:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

St Paul, MN

has the largest Hmong population outside of Laos and they are all extremely Democratic.  I worked for a Hmong candidate who was running to represent the east side of St Paul where they mainly all live, my candidate ran as the leftist candidate opposed to the moderate incumbent.  Her aunt, Mee Moua is a state senator and helped out quite a bit.  And the chair of the St Paul school board is Kazoua Kong-Thao, which yikes I wont say anything ignorant and assume she is hmong but it's probably a safe bet.

All DFL and all quite liberal even for DFL'ers.

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by: Andrew @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 18:55:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

oh and she was running for city council

I only specified the area of the city and not what seat

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by: Andrew @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 19:02:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I knew St. Paul was a center

But I assumed the Hmong population just got out-liberaled by other St. Paul residents.  Apparently not.  Wonder why they didn't shift into "anti-communist" Republicans after Vietnam like the Vietnamese refugees did?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 19:15:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

maybe

because they weren't rich back in Laos. Most of the immigration from Vietnam and Cuba came from the upper-class.

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)

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by: Rupper @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 19:35:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Book The Emerging Democratic Majority

noted that since the 90s most of the Vietnamese and Cuban populations have been liberalizing their politics and the younger generations especially are Democratic friendly.

As a whole the Asian population is highly Democratic friendly, especially the main groups, Chinese and Japanese Americans, Filipinos and Indonesians tend to be liberal as well.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 19:42:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Asian American voting pattern

This is admittedly based entirely on my casual observation but I think it is pretty accurate:

The first group is overwhelming Democratic in registration and actual voting (in order from most loyal Democrats to least):

Non-Mormon Hawaiian
Japanese
3rd gen or older Chinese (roughly those whose family immigrated to US before WW2)
Thai
Hmong/Laotian/Cambodian
Tibetan
Non-evangelical Korean
Taiwanese
Non-Mormon Polynesian (mainly Samoan)

The 2nd group is kind of split in registration but votes mainly Democratic in national and state elections (in order from most loyal Democrats to least):

Non-military affiliated, non-veteran Filipino
1st and 2nd gen Chinese (1970-1990s - balk of them arrived after 1989)
Malay and Indonesian Chinese
Catholic and Buddhist Indian and Sri Lankan
Other secular or non-religious sub-continent Asians (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi)
2nd generation Vietnamese

The 3rd group is largely Republican by registration and votes very conservatively (in order from most likely to vote for Democrats to least)

Military or veteran affiliated Filipino
Self-identified Chinese from Taiwan
Evangelical Korean (which is the majority of Koreans in US)
Sub-continent religious Hindu or Muslim Asians (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi)
Non-Chinese Malay and Indonesian
Mormon Polynesians (Hawaiian and Samoan inclusive)
1st generation Vietnamese

Not politically engaged currently (don't vote, don't care has no concept of either party or political ideology):

Burmese
Hong Kong Chinese
Singapore Chinese
Very recent Chinese immigrants from China (2000+)

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by: bzcat @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 22:22:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I can vouch for TX-22

Vietnamese growth there is amazingly huge in the Harris county portion of the district. Definitely hard core GOP.

Also, the rudest people when it comes to door-to-door canvassing. Had a tendency just to not answer/shut the door on you/say people did not live there/etc. just to be left alone. Last month of the campaign I was working on, I had a habit to delegate out Vietnamese households to others or just skip them. It's not that they were not persuadable, it's that they had no interest in being persuaded or to talk to anyone. They also had the greatest tendency not to speak English which just made them more difficult to deal with.

/rant

And to think, my hopes were being raised once I saw TX-22 is not majority minority.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Wed Oct 14, 2009 at 06:24:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]