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Pres-by-CD: Most Votes

by: Crisitunity

Wed Apr 08, 2009 at 4:09 PM EDT

Time for another installment in the slicing 'n' dicing of our presidential-election-results-by-congressional district dataset. One interesting thing I noticed (that has sort of a "well, duh" feel to it if you think about it for a minute) is that the districts that had the largest raw numbers of votes for Obama or for McCain were rarely the same districts that gave them the best percentages.

The raw vote numbers instead can point to a variety of factors: districts that experienced rapid population growth since redistricting, districts that started out the decade with high population (for instance, some at-large districts haven't grown much, but have always been very big), districts in civic-minded states (like Wisconsin and Oregon) where turnout is always high, and low-income minority-majority districts (where, despite increased turnout for Obama, overall turnout is still comparatively low).

District	Rep.	Obama votes	District	Rep.	Obama votes
WA-07	McDermott	308,226	TN-01	Roe	75,255
PA-02	Fattah	298,834	AL-06	Bachus	74,657
WI-02	Baldwin	286,089	TX-08	Brady	74,545
NC-04	Price	275,205	NE-03	Smith	73,099
MD-04	Edwards	270,377	GA-09	Deal	70,366
CA-08	Pelosi	266,210	TX-29	Green	66,808
IL-02	Jackson	260,869	TX-19	Neugebauer	65,020
CA-09	Lee	260,662	AL-04	Aderholt	58,863
OR-03	Blumenauer	260,128	TX-11	Conaway	58,326
IL-07	Davis	255,470	TX-13	Thornberry	53,860

The biggest Obama vote totals tended to come in districts that don't necessarily have the highest PVIs, but are the some of the most stereotypically "liberal" districts centered on mostly-white cities with left-leaning traditions (Seattle, Madison, San Francisco, Portland). Some of the more relatively affluent African-American-majority districts round out the list. (The lowest Obama totals did in fact come from the districts with the worst Obama percentages, with one big exception: TX-29, which Obama won easily, but has the fewest total votes of any district.)

District	Rep.	McCain votes	District	Rep.	McCain votes
FL-05	Brown-Waite	249,328	CA-35	Waters	27,789
WI-05	Sensenbrenner	243,597	CA-33	Watson	27,672
AL-06	Bachus	243,465	CA-31	Becerra	25,441
MT-AL	Rehberg	242,763	NY-12	Velazquez	23,504
GA-03	Westmoreland	235,263	NY-06	Meeks	22,302
FL-01	Miller	234,185	NY-11	Clarke	20,709
FL-04	Crenshaw	233,446	NY-10	Towns	19,677
CO-06	Coffman	229,715	IL-04	Gutierrez	18,453
TN-07	Blackburn	229,068	NY-15	Rangel	14,954
FL-06	Stearns	228,651	NY-16	Serrano	8,437

The highest McCain vote totals mostly came in rapidly growing suburban districts that lean Republican (MT-AL is also here, simply by virtue of its size). Half of these districts are ones where Obama got at least 40% of the vote, so these aren't necessarily the most right-wing territory (heh, except for AL-06). However, these are districts that will need to shed population with 2012 redistricting, so their Republican lean may leach out into currently neighboring districts. (The districts with the most pitiable McCain totals tend to overlap the districts with the highest PVIs.)

District	Rep.	Total votes	District	Rep.	Total votes
MT-AL	Rehberg	491,092	TX-15	Hinojosa	167,821
FL-05	Brown-Waite	446,316	NY-16	Serrano	167,443
NC-04	Price	438,937	CA-43	Baca	164,830
CO-06	Coffman	437,740	CA-34	Roybal-Allard	142,774
WI-05	Sensenbrenner	421,962	CA-31	Becerra	142,662
WI-02	Baldwin	414,638	IL-04	Gutierrez	139,546
DE-AL	Castle	412,412	AZ-04	Pastor	132,076
MN-06	Bachmann	412,408	CA-20	Costa	129,561
FL-06	Stearns	408,014	CA-47	Sanchez	128,277
FL-07	Mica	401,966	TX-29	Green	108,507

For context, here are the districts with the highest and lowest total number of votes. The districts with the greatest numbers of votes are mostly ones we've already seen, depending on whether they lean Democratic or Republican. The lowest totals are in Hispanic-majority districts, where citizenship and language barriers are at issue.

Crisitunity :: Pres-by-CD: Most Votes

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Pres-by-CD: Most Votes | 15 comments

About FL-05

That district actually isn't as republican as the numbers of McCain votes might make you believe. It's only like R+4. The reason McCain took in so many votes is because the district has a TON of seniors and very high turnout every election.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Apr 08, 2009 at 20:14:38 PM UTC

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Obama got 43% of the vote there

so, yeah, it's not a dark-red district. It is, also, one of the nation's most populous districts according to current estimates, thanks to all those seniors moving in. And unlike some of the other districts that are some of the most populous because of post-2000 growth but have very young populations (like NV-03, UT-03, and AZ-06), those seniors actually are great at turnout.

by: Crisitunity @ Wed Apr 08, 2009 at 20:39:45 PM UTC

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What's going on with

Pasco and Hernando Counties, specifically. Al Gore won both of them but Obama lost them. Are they trending against us? Are they more "traditionally southern" than the rest of Florida? Especially considering how well Obama did in the rest of the Tampa Bay area, it's strange that he lost these two counties.

16, Male, MI-01

by: Menhen @ Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 00:00:01 AM UTC

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Both counties are >92% white

Probably more a racial factor than anything else. I wouldn't read too much into Obama's slightly weaker performance than Gore.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 01:04:12 AM UTC

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PA-02

Not really improved from '04 IIRC. You see the power of the Philly machine. (Interesting that Obama wasn't able to turn out numbers like that during the primary).

by: andgarden @ Wed Apr 08, 2009 at 20:24:52 PM UTC

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IIRC several Oregon districts would have been in the list of 2004 districts with the most votes due to vote by mail. None of them asre on the list this time. I checked and the high vote districts had around 370,000 votes in 2004, Also weren't there two Colorado Republican districts the last time. Now there are one.

WI and MN continue on the list.

Only Bachmann's district had a hotly contestted House contest.

This is a function of congressional districts with high population and a few states in the upper midwest with heavy voting participation.

by: David Kowalski @ Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 00:17:13 AM UTC

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Colorado has two Republican districts: CO-05 (Colorado Springs) and CO-06 (south Denver suburbs.) McCain carried the 3rd and 4th, albeit narrowly, and both elected Dems to the House.

CO-06 was 53-46 McCain; it's hard to believe it's the same district that gave us Tom Tancredo.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

by: TDDVandy @ Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 07:41:09 AM UTC

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Isn't the 4th also a district where we gained by some insane amount?

And that gave us Musgrave for a while.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 14:51:17 PM UTC

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Yes

That district is trending blue very fast. Obama won it by several points.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 14:54:54 PM UTC

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Not quite

McCain still carried the 4th by a very slim margin.

by: James L. @ Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 17:57:19 PM UTC

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It might also backslide

in an election where Obama isn't on the ticket. There are two big universities in the district (Colorado St. and N. Colorado) so I could see the Dem totals slide a lot in an off-year when there isn't revved-up student turnout.

by: Crisitunity @ Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 18:08:27 PM UTC

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We'll see

It's not like the congressional race was close. Markey won by 12 points. Ya, repubs will probably have a better candidate in 2010, but I still expect them to nominate another nutter.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 18:33:17 PM UTC

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I do hope you're right

But I fear the GOP in Eastern Colorado caught a clue. The Larimer County (Fort Collins) GOP, in particular. If SSP's digest is correct, moderate former state senator and current Larimer County Commissioner will likely run. This job-jumping might hurt him, and I'm not exactly turned on by it, but it might not matter at all.

But, anyway, Johnson is a pro-Referendum C fiscal moderate (which is to say he supported removing some of the more odious restrictions on the nutty Colorado revenue law that is TABOR, which prevents any sort of growth...or even maintenance...in government services) and, while he is pro-life and not particularly LGBT friendly, he's not a nutter screaming it from the rooftops. A vet by trade, he was well-liked by most members on both sides of the aisle in the statehouse and is generally an affable fellow, unlike guys like Scott Renfroe in Greeley or Kevin Lundberg in Loveland.

Let's hope he doesn't make it out a GOP primary. If he does, this is a hell of a fight...with Markey probably starting at a distinct disadvantage. That said, the organizational growth of the Larimer and Weld County Democratic Parties (along with my mom's work in Douglas County) has been phenomenal.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Fri Apr 10, 2009 at 00:23:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Keep in mind, even if the Republicans start nominating moderates

they still won't have a concerted direction for their party for a while.

So even if they start nominating moderates, they'll continue to be vulnerable for at least a good amount of time.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Apr 10, 2009 at 00:33:30 AM UTC

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True

This race is almost my backyard, though, so I care about it alot. And Steve Johnson (I can't believe I didn't name him) would be one of the ideal GOPers they could run.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Fri Apr 10, 2009 at 00:39:01 AM UTC

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