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IA-Gov: Branstad's Back; SSP Moves to Tossup

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 07, 2009 at 12:39 PM EDT


Because four terms as Governor just aren't enough:

Former Gov. Terry Branstad filed papers today creating a campaign committee for governor, signaling the beginning of a potential comeback campaign for the Republican and reshaping the race for the 2010 primary election....

Schwarm, who plans to file the paperwork, said it should not be interpreted as a definitive sign that Branstad is committed to running. But veteran Republican strategists see the move as a tacit campaign launch, establishing Branstad as the prohibitive favorite capable of thinning the robust primary field.

Branstad, the current President of Des Moines University, was Iowa's Republican Governor from 1982 to 1998. You might think that makes him an ancient mummy, but he was only 35 when first elected, so he's only 62 years old (heck, he probably has another four terms in him). Branstad has polled well, pulling down high favorables and beating current Democratic incumbent Chet Culver in head-to-heads. Polls, however, have also shown a surprisingly low number of people thinking it's a good idea for him to run again, especially among older Iowans (the ones who actually remember him).

This suggests that while Branstad starts out in strong position, once voters are reminded of the lingering negatives from his administration he may lose some steam. There's also the little matter of the Republican primary, where it seems unlikely that some of the hard-right candidates (like Bob vander Plaats) will step out of his way. With all this in mind, Swing State Project is changing this race to a Tossup.

RaceTracker: IA-Gov

Crisitunity :: IA-Gov: Branstad's Back; SSP Moves to Tossup
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vulnerabilities in Branstad's record
As I wrote at Bleeding Heartland today, I see three likely lines of attack for Branstad's Republican rivals:

1. During his first three terms as governor, Branstad kept two sets of books in order to run illegal deficits. His fiscal mismanagement was the main factor driving support for then Congressman Fred Grandy during the 1994 Republican primary. State Representative Chris Rants has already started hitting Branstad on this front. Last week he asserted,

"Culver's repeating the mistakes Branstad made in the 80's. He moved money on paper and delayed payments from one fiscal year to another until it finally caught up to him and he raised the sales tax to square the books. He could only hide his deficits for so long. It's these kinds of accounting gimmicks that caused the fallout between Auditor Johnson and Branstad."

"We Republicans need to be better than that if we expect to earn the trust of Iowans," added Rants.

Richard Johnson, state auditor during most of Branstad's tenure, is now co-chairing Bob Vander Plaats' campaign. Expect to hear more from him in the future.

2. During his four terms as governor, Branstad didn't deliver on various issues of importance to conservatives. Branstad selected a pro-choice lieutenant governor and didn't get an abortion ban through the legislature even when it was under Republican control during his final term. Vander Plaats has already promised not to balance his ticket with a moderate, and if Branstad announces a pro-choice running mate (which is rumored to be in the works), a lot of the Republican rank and file will be furious.

Branstad campaigned every four years on a promise to reinstate the death penalty, but he never got it done as governor.

Last week Rants promised to press for an amendment on gun rights to the Iowa Constitution. Perhaps we'll hear more in the future about Branstad's failure to do enough on this front.

3. Branstad raised sales taxes, the gas tax, and favored other tax increases as well.

Tax hikes are never popular with the GOP base, and Rants and Vander Plaats are certain to educate primary voters about Branstad's record. If Christian Fong decides to stay in the race, we'll be hearing from him about this issue too. Ed Failor, head of Iowans for Tax Relief, is one of Fong's key political backers and fundraisers.

Meanwhile, the Iowa Democratic Party has already started responding to the Draft Branstad PAC's revisionist history, and will continue to call attention to how Branstad governed. Here is the IDP's response to the first pro-Branstad radio ad. The IDP has also created the entertaining Iowa Knows Better website, with information about all of the GOP candidates for governor. Here is the page on Branstad, with details on Branstad's two sets of books, tax increases, use of state bonding, and failure to pay state employees what they had earned.


jeez
should he win and serve out his full term, would he be the first person to serve 5 4-year terms as governor, or a total of 20 yrs?

Not that I can find
That's arguably another line of attack in and of itself.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
There are no others who have served 5 4-year terms, that is
Not even Edwin freakin' Edwards.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
George Wallace comes close
He served four terms.

1963-1967

1971-1975
1975-1979
1983-1987

BUT, his wife, who served from 1967-1968 was a surrogate for Wallace, so 4 1/4 terms

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


[ Parent ]
5 with 16 years
Clinton served 21 years in New York.  According to the wikipedia lists for each of the 50 states that is the longest period.  His 18 year strretch is the longest consecutive period.

Those who served 16 years include Jim Hodges of NC (1977-85, 1993-2001), Jim Rhodes of Ohio (1963-71, 1975-83), William Janklow of Ohio (1979-87, 1995-2003), Branstad of Iowa (1983-1999) and George Wallace of Alabama (1963-67, 1971-79, 1983-87).  Only Branstad served 4 consecutive terms from this group.

The only Governor to serve 15 but not 16 years was Arthur Fenner of Rhode Island from the George Clinton era (1790-1805).  Nelson Rockefeller, Jim Thompson, Tommy Thompson, William Livingston of NJ, William Milliken and Robert Ray all made 14 years (Rocky nearly hit 15).


[ Parent ]
And if Goodhair Rick Perry
manages to win next year, then in 2014 he will join the 14er club.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Not to be overly picky,
but I guess I'm going to be :)

It was Jim Hunt that was the twice two-term governor of North Carolina, and William Janklow was governor of South Dakota, not Ohio.


[ Parent ]
True
But he's not the longest serving Governor ever.  To find that man, we need to go the wayback machine and set it for 1777 or 1801...place: New York City for the former and Albany for the latter.  Governor George Clinton of New York served 6 3-year terms from 1777-1795.  For good measure, he came back to serve another from 1801-1804.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Deja vu, 1982!
I never thought I would see Terry Branstad and Roxanne Conlin on the ballot again.

Me either...
Conlin was leading until it was announced she had paid no income taxes after campaigning on the issue of the wealthy not paying taxes.  Branstad's win was a rare GOP win in 1982.

I hope the unannounced Dem against Grassley isn't her, but someone else.  


[ Parent ]
Rare?
I suppose you mean that, generally, 1982 was a Democratic year, but Republicans had been doing well in Iowa in that era. Prior to '82, the Governor's office had been held by Bob Ray (R) since 1968, and Republicans had unseated incumbent Democratic Senators in 1978 and 1980.

[ Parent ]
Yepsen hit job
Her income fluctuated greatly from year to year. She'd had a year with a high income and paid high taxes. The following year her income was way down. David Yepsen really pushed the story to make it look like she'd been evading taxes she owed.  

[ Parent ]
Thankfully Yepsen is retired now
and we don't have to put up with that bullshit any more.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
if she runs against Grassley
they will bring back all that crap, along with the "Taxanne" bumper stickers.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
but my God, we have so much stuff to hit right back with this time.  Grassley is not some no-name statewide officeholder like Branstad was in 1992.  He's got a thirty-year record that now includes attempting to singlehandedly scuttle the health care bill and alleging that Obama wasn't born in the United States.  Decades-old stuff about Conlin may not stick as well as that will.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Chet Culver vs. Grassley
Culver is more likely to loose to Branstad than Grassley. If the public option can pass than I think it might be possible to unseat Grassley. So let Terry have the gov and lets make an attempt at picking up a senate seat.

Grasley vs. Culver II
Of course, Grassley won his first Senate election in 1980 by defeating Culver's father, John Culver.

[ Parent ]
I couldn't disagree more
Grassley's brand is much stronger in Iowa than Branstad's. Culver has a much better chance of being re-elected than of defeating Grassley. Branstad's ratings are likely to go down once he gets into the rough and tumble of a campaign. He's criticizing Culver's budget policies, which is frankly a sick joke to anyone who remembers Branstad's real record.

[ Parent ]
Culver has a decent shot of being reelected
I agree that tossup is the appropriate status for the race now -- whereas anyone angling for Grassley is going to have a decidedly uphill battle.

You know, this cycle we are really going to test out the theory that bringing back previous holders of a seat to run for that same seat is a good strategy.  The Republicans are putting this to the test by running Branstad in IA, Charlie Bass in NH-02, Steve Chabot in OH-01, Steve Pearce in NM-02, and maybe Mike Sodrel in IN-09 (though that last one isn't a good test case because the pounding Sodrel took in 2008 has discredited him as a candidate).  I tend to think that this is not a very good strategy, because the poll numbers of such figures are artificially inflated since people remember constituent service better than they remember why they didn't like their politicians in the first place.

Mind you, I don't blame the Republicans for trying -- seats like IA-Gov and NM-02 were out of their reach without this gambit.  But I have a feeling fresh candidates like Kelly Ayotte will do better than these dried-up retreads with easily-punctured auras of inevitability.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...


[ Parent ]
Republicans are winning the recruiting battle so far this cycle
that's for sure.

While Democrats are running and hiding from any tough race, the Republicans pull out a strong candidate to run against a strong incumbent.

2010 should have been/should be a great year, but not if they have backbone and we don't.  Culver having a strong opponent and Grassley not is the clearest example of this phenomenon.


Slight exaggeration
I would say they've edged it. Dems have their fair share of strong recruits too - Robin Carnahan, Jack Conway, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, Elaine Marshall, Bryan Lentz, John Carney, Steve Pougnet, Tom White, John Callahan, Charlie Justice, Terry Goddard, Alex Sink, Neil Abercrombie, Roy Barnes, Jim Rex, John Kitzhaber. I'd even argue Jerry Brown though I know you disagree.

[ Parent ]
Conway and Melancon though are the only toughies
I mean recruiting a strong person who should go in as an underdog against an incumbent.

It's not exactly a leap of courage for Carnahan, Hodes and Brown to run for open seats.

They got solid candidates against Dodd and Reid.  We got air against McCain, Grassley, and Kansas, and didn't get Cooper.


[ Parent ]
Hunt, etc.
You are right.  That is what happens when you write something at 3 am.  I jumped a line on Hunt (Hodges was the name above him on my list).  As for Janklow, I was too busy deciding whether to get snarky about the auto accident.

Thanks.



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