• CA-Sen: We’re starting to get fundraising reports filtering in, via the media and the rumor mill. And one of the most eyebrow-raising numbers comes from Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, of all places: he pulled in $330K in the third quarter, leaving him sitting on over $700K. He’s been given afterthought status as the NRSC and tradmed have rushed to fawn over Carly Fiorina, but his seeming success at tapping movement conservative wallets indicates that he won’t be going away quietly.
• FL-Sen: When you have so many people giving you money, a few of them are bound to be very bad apples…. Alan Mendelsohn, a prominent eye doctor and chief fundraiser for the Florida Medical Association PAC, was also a key financial backer of Charlie Crist and a member of his transition team. Yesterday he was charged by a federal grand jury with mail and wire fraud, aiding and abetting fraud, and lying to federal agents.
• IL-Sen: Maybe Mike Ditka doesn’t have the same iconic power that he used to, but if he does, then upstart GOP primary challenger Patrick Hughes got a really big get. The former coach of da Bears endorsed Hughes, who seems to be coalescing most of the hard-right, anti-Mark Kirk sentiment in the Senate primary.
• MA-Sen: More showy fundraising numbers out of Massachusetts, where everyone is scrambling for money in view of the primary election a few months away. Most notable is AG Martha Coakley, whose only real weakness seemed to be a lack of money (as she already has statewide name rec, is the only woman in the race, and a big edge in the polls). That’s a weakness no longer, as she raised $2.1 million in less than a month. By contrast, Rep. Michael Capuano raised only $300K in that period; even with the $1.2 mil in his House account, his one advantage — money — has now vaporized. The big surprise is City Year founder Alan Khazei, who raised $1 million in just a week after a late start to his candidacy; the question is whether he can convert that into a decent share of the vote. Celtics co-owner Steven Pagliuca raised only $200K, but can dip into his own money to advertise.
• NV-Sen: A long but must-read piece from the NYT looks at the tangled web between John Ensign and the Hampton family. Most significantly, it looks like Ensign not only went further than previously thought in trying to line up a job for Doug Hampton (the mistress’s husband) but then used his governmental power to do favors for Hampton’s new employer, Allegiant Air — certainly a violation of Senate ethics rules. And this is the Ensign that new GOP golden girl Sue Lowden was trying to circle the wagons around, even long after most of the rest of the local GOP had decided he was better served under the bus.
• NY-Gov: This is interesting: Mitt Romney is moving to back ex-Rep. Rick Lazio in the governor’s race and hosting a Lazio fundraiser. Since polls show Lazio getting completely flattened by Rudy Giuliani if they face off in a gubernatorial primary, Romney’s expenditure of political capital is either a) a sign that insiders are pretty well aware that Giuliani won’t be getting into the governor’s race after all, or else b) a repayment for Lazio’s backing in the 2008 prez primary and a thumb-in-the-eye for primary rival Giuliani.
• GA-12: More news out of the 12th: Wayne Mosley, a wealthy doctor and the NRCC’s recruit in the race thanks to his self-funding capacity (in fact, one of their top recruits in the nation, if you believe Mosely himself), had to drop out of the race. Mosely is being sued by his hospital for breach of contract, and apparently that’s taking up all his time and money. That leaves Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith and activist Jeanne Seaver as options to go up against Blue Dog Dem Rep. John Barrow.
• HI-01: Here’s some good news for those of us who’d like to see the House stay nice and Ed Case-free: state Senate president Colleen Hanabusa is getting in the race for the Democratic nomination for the open seat in the 1st being vacated by Neil Abercrombie. Hanabusa’s main opponent looks like it will be ex-Rep. Ed Case, who beat Hanabusa in the 2002 race in HI-02; the progressive Hanabusa may have better odds against the moderate Case this time, as Case alienated a lot of the local party with an ill-advised primary challenge to Sen. Dan Akaka in 2006.
• MO-03: Rep. Russ Carnahan picked up a Republican opponent: attorney Ed Martin. The 3rd is a D+7 district that has presented Carnahan with little trouble in the past.
• NY-23: Dede Scozzafava finally hit the TV airwaves with a new ad, leading the polls but lagging both her opponents in the battle for the airwaves. Also, check out Robert Harding’s thorough examination at the Albany Project of Scozzafava’s not-so-liberal actual voting record in the Assembly, if you’re looking for a counterpoint to yesterday’s Daily Kos piece about Scozzafava.
• SD-AL: Republican state Rep. Blake Curd, a Sioux Falls surgeon, is the first opponent to officially get in the race against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Secretary of State Chris Nelson is still considering the race, though, and given his statewide profiel seems like he’d be likelier to win the GOP primary if he got in.
• VA-10: Rep. Frank Wolf, the Republican dean of the Virginia delegation, has picked up a Democratic challenger in the form of attorney Patrick Lewis. Demographics are quickly moving this NoVa suburban/exurban district in the Democratic direction (it’s up to R+2 now), but Wolf has the kind of personal staying power that makes Lewis’s challenge an uphill fight.
• OH-SoS: Bad news out of the Ohio Secretary of State race (on the short list as one of the nation’s most important downballot statewide offices): Franklin County Commissioner Marilyn Brown decided to end her bid for the Democratic nomination, preferring instead to run for re-election. While this may spare the Dems a contested primary, this leaves only the much more conservative state Rep. Jennifer Garrison in the race, which may leave the base unenthused for the general election.
• ME-Init: Democracy Corps has a poll out on the anti-gay marriage ballot measure in Maine. They find 41% “yes” and 50% “no.” (Remember, as with California’s Prop 8, a “yes” vote is a vote against gay marraige.) These numbers are slightly better than the near-even split an R2K poll found a couple of weeks ago. But as Markos notes, D-Corps tested registered voters, while R2K looked at likely voters. (D)
I actually think Scozzafava’s ad is quite…pleasant.
And, as far as Romney goes, I feel like Paterson’s recent rhetoric is only further encouraging Giuliani to make a run, so I presume this is just reward for Lazio’s endorsement. Plus, I kinda wouldn’t have expected Romney to endorse Rudy anyway.
she sits in the type of oppositely partisan seat that the opposition party picks up in off years. with a statewide candidate like sec nelson she’s going to be vulnerable even if she seems popular. sort of like chaffee in rhode island, (senate i know, but same conecpt). she has organization and money which is good, but it will be a race to watch.
would give Hawaii and all Asian-American delegation, with 3 out of the 4 being of Japanese descent.
people in massachusetts loveee her. Go Coakley!
She is the State Senate President, Gary Hooser is the Majority Leader, who is running for Lt. Gov.
I had to fight tooth and nail with young Mr Harding on TAP because he wanted Jimmy Dahroug to lose another critical state senate race while I was promoting any realistic alternative who could win. My candidate ended up being Brian Foley who did beat Trunzo giving us the State Senate, Harding even once had the audacity to write that the state senate could be won without Brian Foley winning the seat! With that as a measurement of insight I would certainly take anything Harding writes with a grain of salt!
I don’t care who the dem nominee is, I’d vote for them no matter what and be uber enthusiastic to do so. We need to redistrict Ohio. We are so close to making republicans the party of the south. If we can do that they will die off. At some point the south is going to get black enough that the republicans will have nowhere to do
“DeVore is to Fiorina” as “Sestak is to Specter”
where:
Fiorina & Specter = the establishment’s picks
DeVore & Sestak = the longshot upstarts for Senator
in addition to the OH SoS?
he should have ran for Governor, where I think being a wingnut would have carried him to victory with 35%.
As there are no major elections this November in the state (correct me if I’m wrong). So determining who will be a “likely voter” is a crapshoot as this is so unique there is no historical data to draw from. Unfortunately, I’m concerned about this. Low-turnout battles tend to favor the anti-gay activists (something about “them dern gays” just gets those folks riled up!). In all seriousness, with the Portland Archdiocese throwing its weight behind the initiative the anti-marriage crowd is more likely to have better organization come November.
Why do these political religious groups have tax-exempt status again?
according to the AP the SoS is running for the house of reps… Damn!
If she’s bailing on the race, I think it’s a sign that Brunner may be running for reelection.
My concern is, will other progressives run in the primary and allow Case to eke out a win? I think that’s particularly likely since Hanabusa killed gay marriage in the State Senate earlier this year.