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SSP Daily Digest: 5/7

by: Crisitunity

Thu May 07, 2009 at 2:56 PM EDT


• PA-Sen: Well, something finally went right for Arlen Specter. After Specter got condemned to the basement on all his committees on Tuesday night, Majority whip Dick Durbin doled out a little charity this morning by giving up his own chair (Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Drugs) and handing it over to Specter (apparently without Pat Leahy's say-so). I'm wondering what Specter had to do behind the scenes to smooth things over; if the rumors flying that Specter is poised to re-flip-flop back to supporting EFCA are true, that's probably the answer.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy is still making noises about a primary challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but with her frequent caveats about stepping aside if someone younger takes on the challenge, it seems like she's doing it more to yank Gillibrand's chain on gun control issues. Gillibrand has been a reliable vote in favor of gun controls since entering the Senate, going so far as to co-sponsor the current bill to close the gun-show loophole. McCarthy confesses to being "very happy about it. I just want her to stay there."

• NH-Sen: Judd Gregg tells CQ that wherever he goes, he's bombarded by Republicans begging him to run for another term in the Senate. He says he'll listen to their entreaties, but he's "comfortable with where" he is.

• AK-Gov: Governors in general are having a rough go of it these days, and now even the once-mighty Sarah Palin is suffering, falling to a mundane 54/41 favorable rating according to Hays Research. Senator Lisa Murkowski, by comparison, is still at 76/18.

• OK-Gov: Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is still publicly undecided about the governor's race, and kicking the can down the road on a formal decision. Reading between the lines of his statement, it sounds like he's having some trouble fundraising, saying "You don't take on something like this unless you know you will have the resources to do it."

• CO-04: The GOP got the candidate it wanted, to go up against freshman Rep. Betsy Markey in this now R+6 district. State House minority whip Cory Gardner, who represents the vast emptiness of eastern Colorado, announced that he'll be running. Univ. of Colorado regent Tom Lucero is already in the hunt for the GOP nod.

• MN-06: One day after former Independence Party Lt. Gov. candidate Maureen Reed said she'll be a Dem candidate in 2010, the 2008 candidate, Elwyn Tinklenberg, confirmed he'll be running again, against one-woman gaffe machine Michele Bachmann.

• CA-47: GOP Assemblyman Van Tran made it official, setting up his exploratory committee for an uphill bid against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Latino-majority district in the heart of the O.C. (Discussion underway in Gus Ayer's diary.)

• ID-01: Idaho state Treasurer Don Crane spent the last week glad-handing GOP leaders and fundraisers in Washington, DC, fueling speculation that he's ready to challenge frosh Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick next year. Would his candidacy dampen the spirits of ex-Rep. Bill "Brain Fade" Sali, who is currently mulling a rematch? (J)

• GA-09: When you have an R+28 district, the only question about an open seat is what variety of wingnut you're going to get next. Former state Senator Bill Stephens (who lost the SoS primary to Karen Handel in 2006) announced he'll run to succeed Rep. Nathan Deal, retiring to run for governor. Former state Transportation Board chair Mike Evans is already seek the GOP nom.

• IL-11: The GOP has lined up Air Force Captain Adam Kinzinger to run against freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the Chicago suburbs. His exploratory committee is open, but he's currently serving in Iraq and won't be able to make a formal announcement until summer.

• MI-11: We've got somebody willing to step up against Bad Thad McCotter in this Dem-trending seat in the economically hard-hit Detroit suburbs: fundraising consultant Natalie Mosher. The DCCC sounds like it's going to keep looking for someone else, but if that fails, bear in mind that McCotter barely won in 2008 against a different Dem nobody.

• GA-12: When you're running for office, it's important to sell yourself... but not oversell yourself. Surgeon and Iraq vet Wayne Mosely, who's running against Rep. John Barrow in the D+1 rural Georgia district, recently tweeted that the NRCC rated his race as one of the top 3 in the nation! Uh, no, there's no ranking system, responded the NRCC, although they did concede that they were "very excited" about Mosely's candidacy.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/7
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SSP Daily Digest: 5/7 | 39 comments
Leahy
I read that Leahy blocked the move.
Yeah, Roll Call
last hour posted a new article basically consisting of Leahy, Durbin, and Reid all passing the buck to each other in a circle, but the basic takeaway was that Leahy says "nothing's been settled yet."
[ Parent ]
more Roll Call
Meanwhile, Specter declined to say whether he agreed with Reid's assertion Wednesday that he would vote with his new party on all procedural votes.
Well the DINO is certainly keeping his word that he won't be a loyal Democrat.
Totally dump for him to risk pissing off Reid right now as Reid seems to be one of his only supporters left in the caucus.
[ Parent ]
meant: "Totally dumb ..." nt

[ Parent ]
i highly doubt the palin fav poll
it's understandable that her pop would fall, following her disasterous veep nom career and the blight effecting all govs due to the economy, but that much of a fall seems like just to much.  until i see a second poll with similar results, this is certainly no more than an outlier.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Then you obviously aren't keeping up with Alaska politics
I believe she's at 54%, if not lower.  

1. Her nomination of a nutter for Alaska Attorney General got VOTED DOWN by the AK state legislature, the first time such a nomination has ever been voted down in Alaska.

2. Her grandstanding on the stimulus money cost her big.  If there's one think Alaskans  of all stripes love it's free federal money.  Palin tried to reject a significant portion of it, and once again the state legislature slapped her down and took the money.

[ Parent ]
Sarah Palin-mania...has it run its course?
Do you think the GOP is in bad enough shape where she will be their 2012 Presidential nominee?  She will get slaughtered.  A rightwing nut friend of mine proposed a Palin/Steele Presidential ticket.  That would be hilarious if it actually happens.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Palin/Steele?
Obama would probably break 400 EV's against that ticket.
[ Parent ]
Palin/Limbaugh!
Or Limbaugh/Limbaugh's Ass

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
At least Palin is not at 77% anymore
I found McCarthy's statement funny.

I'm glad the GOP has a bad candidate in CO-04, no one from that vast emptiness can win the district and those from are usually hard right social conservatives which allows Markey to run strong in Weld and Larimer, where's it important to win.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Palin was 86% positive
[ Parent ]
The GOP's favorite sport
Oh, this'll be fun to watch.  Rep. Gardner is considered the wunderkind of Colorado state GOP politics (along with the much more moderate Josh Penry).  On the one hand, he's in a stronger position within the party than one might imagine and may do well from Morgan County eastward.  But, there's going to be a war.  Unless he publically backed out, Larimer County Commissioner and Fmr. State Sen. Steve Johnson, a relative moderate (pro Referendum C, pro-life but not a social nutter) who is amicable and well-liked (at least personally) among legislators of both parties, is in the game, as well.  Let the cannibalism begin!!

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
wow, Steve Johnson seems like a huge
threat.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
wow, Steve Johnson seems like a huge
threat.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
GA-Gov, GA-SoS
Not a campaign story, but an indication of the darkness within the heart of Republican Gubernatorial candidate (and current Secretary of State) Karen Handel.  Notice, also, that her FACTS are wrong:

http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Thanks for the shout-out on CA-47
At Orange County Progressive, we know CA-47 very well and we know Loretta and Van Tran.

Although Loretta gets a lot of crap from the blogosphere, because of her Blue Dog status, local progressives continue to be enthusiastic supporters of our friend Congresswoman Sanchez, who has been there on the votes that took courage, like voting against Bush on the invasion of Iraq.


Anyone else
Crack into the highly anticipated (if you're a redistricting junkie like many of us are) Dave's Redistricting App yet?
I'm pretty impressed so far. Pretty user-friendly once you get the hang of it. The obvious next step for it to go in would be to add in voter-registration numbers and/or 2008 prez results, but this is still a fantastic effort. Pretty much anything that makes the functions and devices of the government more accessible and transparent to everyday people should be applauded.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
I played around with it a little bit
I found it interesting but fairly limited and pretty difficult to work with--especially because you can't save on a Mac.

I think if we could get some color-coded political and demographic data, and we had some way to manipulate the existing districts, it would be more interesting.

Also, it's really easy to miss small census blocks when you're sweeping through an area.  

[ Parent ]
I havent checked it out yet
I, too, would like political and demographic data. Especially political. I dont think itd be much fun, for me personally, to make districts if it doesnt have political data.  
[ Parent ]
That last point
Is something that's been bugging me. I'd be nice if there was some way to select many blocks at once if they're all going to be in the same district.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
It needs something like the Photoshop toolset
We are, after all, "drawing" districts.

But what I find most limiting is the lack of political data and the fact that demographic data is presented in a cumbersome way. It would take ages to draw districts the way I would like to.

[ Parent ]
Yes to political data
There are several user-friendly changes to be made, but the absence of voter reg/Obama numbers makes it limited. I don't know how Dave would even go about adding that kind of information, since the foundation of the program is those census-blocks, not precincts. Otherwise I think it's a great program.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I more or less finished my first map a little while ago, but the Seattle-based district is ~20K too small because there are blocks here and there that I missed.
I still feel like it's a fantastic program, but it's sorta a work-in-progress at the moment.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
It's a promising work in progress. I think the political unit we really want to work with is the VTD.  
[ Parent ]
I think some of the demographics are off
There is no way Rockdale County, Georgia is that white.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
He doesn't even list Georgia as being supported

[ Parent ]
It's there
Unless I'm using older data or something.

I'm thoroughly enjoying hypothetically fucking over Phil Gingrey and John Linder.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
That line reminds me of xkcd
Enjoying voyeurism of the hypothetical couple 150 meters away, along with some phrase like "statistically work it, baby".

Now, if we could actually realistically fuck them over...though I think that Lynn Westmoreland is more satisfying, if only because he's "uppity".

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
it is
amazing huh. 74% and it went 54% for Obama. So much for the all white southerners are racists theory.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
That was the 2000 Census
I'm sure it has gotten less white by 2008.  Bush beat Gore there in 2000 62-33.
[ Parent ]
Anyone have Hardball on just now?
Tom Ridge was Matthews' guest

CM "Hardball time, who will you vote for for Senate?"
TR silence "Depends who the candidates are?"
CM "Toomey the Republican and Specter the ex Republican."
TR "That's the great thing about America it's a secret ballot."

This was preceded by Chris asking if Toomey could win the general and Ridge answering it depends who the Democrat is. He expanded he would want to see who else is running in the Republican primary instead of answering if he would support Toomey.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Wow
But I wonder if hes saying that as a favor to the Republican establishment who clearly would not prefer Toomey. Maybe the right wing talk radio crowd would but the establishment would not.  
[ Parent ]
If this interview gets out bigtime
then the right-wing activists will react more negatively to this than the establishment will react positively.

This is going to be a battle of wills between the Republican establishment's ability to whip their team into line and the Republican base's ideological dissatisfaction with the Party establishment.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
The wingnuts will win that battle here
Toomey is the clear favorite.
[ Parent ]
Of course we know who he'd vote for
And it's not Toomey.
[ Parent ]
Matthews interviewing Ridge
Those interviews are always to the point of embarrassment.  If Matthews liked Ridge much more than he does he'd give the guy a big fat kiss on air.
[ Parent ]
MI-11 Lack of surprise this time
As with Ken Calvert over in CA-44, we won't enjoy an element of surprise this time; don't be surprised if a nobody doesn't get anywhere close.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
CA-44 I agree
But McCotter's district is so marginal I think it'll be close regardless.
[ Parent ]
Comments on Goddard's Wire, as advertised today on electoral-vote.com
"Perry Claims Gap With Hutchison is Narrowing" - heard that before.

"Henry Pressured to Run for Senate in Oklahoma" - not sure if I've heard that before.  This article links to a Southern Political Report article, which has some stuff we've already discussed here, and these pieces:

OK-Sen:

The word from the Sooner State is that Gov. Brad Henry (D), a moderate Democrat, is getting lots of pressure from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to run for the US Senate next year if -- as is looking likely -- US Sen. Tom Coburn (R) decides to step down. Henry has managed to stay reasonably popular despite having to contend with a Republican legislature. Coburn, who has yet to say yea or nay on a 2010 re-election bid, raised only a pittance ($17,000) in the 1st Quarter, which suggests he isn't planning to run again. Meanwhile, the OK GOP is looking like the gang that couldn't shoot straight in this year's state legislative session, failing to pass its two top priorities, tort reform and an English-only proposal, plus lost an anti-stem cell research measure. Stay tuned.

Coburn's retirement "likely"?  He doesn't even actually need a pittance in order to win in Oklahoma.  I don't think his lack of fundraising is a concern.

OK-Gov primaries:

In the Oklahoma governor's race, US Rep. Mary Fallin (R) is leading potential primary opponents among likely Republican primary voters and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) is ahead among likely Democratic voters, indicating that 2010 could be the year of the woman in Sooner State politics. The Sooner Poll, taken in late April, gave Fallin 45% to 26% for former Congressman J. C. Watts, who has not announced, and 5% for socially conservative state Sen. Randy Brogdon, who has announced. On the Democratic side, Askins got 34% to 29% for Oklahoma Attorney General Drew Edmondson.

South Carolina - Inez Tenenbaum:

Former Palmetto State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum (D) has been appointed by President Obama to chair the Consumer Product Safety Commission, likely to be a particularly active group under this Democratic administration. Tenenbaum, who was an early Obama backer in 2008, ran for the US Senate in 2004, garnering 44% against Jim DeMint's (R) 54%.

I guess she's out of the picture to run for anything in 2010; oh well.

"Kennedy May Be Strongest for Senate in Illinois" - WTF???  Okay, the article links to a Chicago Sun-Times article with lots of trivia...and this piece of surprising information.

Wait, seriously, what?  Rahm, what happened with Caroline?  Wasn't that a bad idea?  And what exactly is wrong with Alexi or Lisa?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

SSP Daily Digest: 5/7 | 39 comments

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