This brings a smile to my face

I remember when Steele was saying that the NY-20 race would be a referendum of how Obama was doing as president.  If Tedisco had won, the dems may be in an even bigger hole with passing reform than they are today.

If Deeds, Owens, and Corzine in their respective races, this could give the last jolt the dems need to pass the health and energy bill.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 05:02:45 AM UTC

Really, this is the race I feel most strongly about

It will be upsetting if Corzine loses.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 05:06:02 AM UTC

Aside from maine of course.

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by: andgarden @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 05:06:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't want Christie to win it either

But I don't see why a politician like Corzine is so near and dear to you, more so than a much more important race in swing state Virginia with a good, clean, and competent Democrat who would make a good governor-something Corzine will never be.

At this point I'm mostly pulling for Corzine so NJ can show its Democratic chops; yet again crushing Republican hopes. Its a testament to Corzine's well earned unpopularity that he can't open up a double digit lead on Christie despite the rather terrible campaign he's run and how much further to the right his views are to the general New Jersey electorate. I mean Christine Todd Whitman barely won originally over a wildly unpopular governor and then in 1997 she won by even smaller margin against a state senator, (Jim McGreevey), that she outspent and had 4 years as a relatively competent incumbent on. In addition NJ had a significantly stronger Republican presence in the 1990s, (professional and wealthier women continue to leave the party as well as many moderates). Whitman was a fairly liberal Republican, not on the level of Lincoln Chafee perhaps, but far to the left of Christie who is a fairly standard packaged Republican conservative of the kind that does not normally break 44% in NJ, and on top of that he has proven to be quite the sleazebag, that's what's making this upcoming upset interesting to me; I never expected it from the formerly popular clean guy face, the white knight of NJ clean government. If Corzine still goes down and does one favor it's that he has politically mutilated the Republicans most popular and attractive statewide figure and removed much chance that he'll be able to do much, get reelected, or help put Republicans foot in the door of NJ becoming a solidly Democratic state, (despite State Party Democrats best efforts to the contrary).

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 05:50:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

For the issues that I care about most

Corzine is simply far more liberal than Deeds. I'm looking for another medium-sized state to enact marriage equality legislatively, and New Jersey will do that years (probably decades) before Virginia.

Frankly, I think your image of Corzine is just wrong.

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by: andgarden @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 06:56:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NJ is passing it

after the election during the lame-duck session.

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by: Andrew @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 13:23:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Corzine loses

I would not count on that.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 13:41:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

agree

If Corzine loses and/or Dems lose seats in the State Assembly I imagine the political will to pass marriage equality in the lame duck session will diminish quickly.  

27, Independent, NJ-12

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by: HC Liberal @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 14:04:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wrong

While I am way too lazy to look up all of the articles (and im in class), it has been repeatedly said that it'll be voted on during the lame duck session.  Them choosing to do it during the lame duck session instead of prior to the election means they dont want the issue to hurt their electoral chances but them repeatedly saying it will be brought up during the lame duck sessions shows that they intend to get it done.  I've seriously been reading about them passing it during the lame duck session since the beginning of the year.

Not to mention, do you really think Corzine losing means that the Dems will back off trying to get gay marriage passed?  The opposite should be the more logical choice as if Corzine loses, gay marriage cant get passed with Christie in office and would have to wait at least 4 years.  No, they'll get it done because they'll know this is their only chance to get it done.

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by: Andrew @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 15:24:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, in your opinion it's "wrong"

But I think you are wrong. If they lose, they will not have the political will to do it.

You have way to much faith in politicians, it seems to me.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 15:27:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sooner is better

George Norcross, the biggest and most crooked boss in the state, is a conservadem.  He just engineered dumping Codey as President of the Senate this week and has a history of working hard to the right (see Corzine).

I'd do it before his errand boy becomes state senate President in the next session.

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 16:55:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How did he do that?

A party boss was able to get the President of the Senate removed? Is Codey still a senator?

Is there any criminal activity here that the Feds should look at?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 18:51:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's still in the Senate

but Norcross got enough votes in the state Senate to oust him as President.

New Jersey Democrats tend to be split among North Jersey/South Jersey lines. Typically a North Jersey Dem leads in one chamber, and a South Jersey Dem leads in the other. The current Assembly Speaker, a South Jersey Dem, is retiring and is likely to be replaced by a North Jersey Dem in the next session. So I guess the Senate Dems got together and acquiesced to install a South Jersey Dem as Senate President.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 23:35:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere

that it's actually state law that the leader of one chamber must be from a different part of the state than the leader of the other chamber.

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by: Politik @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 23:48:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure but there might be such a law

If so, it would mean that the Speaker of the Assembly and the President of the Senate would have to hail from different counties.

That's another part of Norcross's chess game: He's further attempting to force Codey (who hails from Roseland, in Essex County) out by having the legislators in his machine back Assemblywoman Sheila Oliver (who hails from East Orange, also in Essex County), in exchange for many North Jerseyan legislators' backing of Steve Sweeney (Norcross's candidate for Senate Pres). That way, the South Jersey machine and the Newark machine both get to control one of these two key posts. The difference from the status quo is that while both regions will still control one of these posts, Oliver is a pawn of Newark machine head Stephen Adubato, Sr., where Codey was well-known as a political rival of Adubato's.

Gotta love the smoke-filled rooms of New Jersey politics. I feel bad for Codey, who was one of the better governors we've had in the modern era.

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 01:19:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow.

Nice knowing we in California and New York aren't the only ones with dysfunctional state legislatures!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 01:24:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's difficult to describe how powerful George Norcross is in just a few words.

He's alarmingly powerful...a true puppet master. This isn't the first time Norcross forced a change of power in the Senate either. In 2002, Norcross approached John O. Bennett, the Republican Co-President of the Senate, to try and force him to appropriate funds for a proposed arena in South Jersey. When Bennett refused, Norcross stormed out, informing him, "I will fucking destroy you." Norcross's machine then utterly ruined Bennett's public career, culminating in his defeat in his 2003 bid for re-election.

To better understand the full scope of Norcross's power as the Democratic political boss of South Jersey, read this.

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 01:07:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm Sorry, blame me

I am so affair to self-grandizing politicians who spend 100 million plus dollars of their own money to buy elections and get the right to run from the State Party over real candidates and who then proceed to shut down the state government because they can't even agree with the Democratically control State House because he utterly refuses to compromise and on a power trip basicalyl tries to manhandle the legislative body into following his commands.

Then to solve budget problems he tries to lease out federal property to a private corporation that would have power to place in unfairly high rates for what should be a public service. He appointed Farber AG despite the obvious fact she was a walking ethical disaster who had to resign when it came out she pressured police investigations on her boyfriend.

What's more I'm not that concerned about Gay Marriage, NJ already has a Civil Union plan that I feel is more than sufficient to last the a few extra years; if I had to make some choice between Deeds and Corzine winning. Virginia is far more important politically than New Jersey.

My image of Corzine is not that wrong and frankly its one shared by just about every non-hyperpartisan Democrat in the New Jersey area. I do happen to follow NJ politics and I am critical and expectant of progress. Corzine has been a huge disappointment and aside from having basic positions I agree with he has done a terrible job managing NJ through various crisises. It isn't enough just to agree with me, especially in NJ, I expect ethical qualities, reform, and progress, three things Corzine is a miserable failure at. However I would probably pull the lever for him to keep national Republicans from getting a race to crow about and because Christie is such a scumbag too.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 16:53:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As a New Jerseyan

...I can't tell you how right you are.

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 01:37:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You live in Pennsylvania, right?

So your interest in the NJ gubernatorial race is that of an outsider. No offense, but as a New Jerseyan, I don't agree with your desire to elect the most liberal candidate possible every time. Admittedly, marriage equality is not an issue I really care much about. Still, when I vote for governor, I want to pick the best candidate, and that might not always be the most liberal one. Frankly, Corzine has been a disastrous governor for New Jersey, and while I appreciate your desire to have liberal Dems governing as many states as possible, I personally desire to have a less inept governor than the one we have now by this coming January.  

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 01:32:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I reject every premise of this comment

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by: andgarden @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 13:26:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

On what grounds? n/t

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 14:04:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't want to speak for andgarden

but we reject the sentiment that a)Corzine is corrupt and a horrible governor due solely to his won actions, b) marriage equality is not that important and most importantly c) that electing the most liberal governor possible every time should not the main goal.

Now I do have exceptions.  I oppose those who are cancers to our agenda even if they may be slightly more liberal than the opponent.  I put Parker Griffith (and possibly other Blue Dogs) in that category.  I would proudly vote for the GOP candidate in AL-5.  I put Joe Lieberman in that category, and have voted for the Republican (if I lived in CT) if Lieberman won the Dem primary there in 2006.  I put Harry Reid, the most incompetent Senate leader in many many years, in that category, and would consider voting for the GOP nominee if I lived in Nevada just to get rid of Reid as Senate leader.  I might put Bill Owens in that category, I don't yet know.

But Jon Corzine is unpopular for the same reason why James Florio was unpopular, because he for the most part took bold progressive steps that forced people to have to make a few sacrifices regarding taxes.  He deserves a second term.  

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by: JSmith @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 14:32:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not far off

It would take more than what you name to get me to vote for a Republican, but otherwise I agree.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 03:52:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Whitman

Whitman was not even "fairly liberal."  Her tax cuts and pension refinancing are responsible for the fiscal mess that state's currently in.  She had a horrible record on labor issues.

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by: Paleo @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 10:42:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perhaps

socially liberal would be better put.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 16:41:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This comeback is stunning

Christie was literally polling over 50% this summer.  And yet somehow, I imagine a bunch of people are smiling, knowing that they predicted this turnaround, when everyone else had written this race off as a sure loss (generally, not a bad idea when incumbents are polling in the 30s).

If Corzine actually wins this will be a horrific upset against the GOP.

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by: skaje @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 07:28:40 AM UTC

Not a comeback, per se

Corzine's numbers have really gone up so much as Christie's have gone down.

http://bluejersey.com/diary/12...

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 01:34:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Question...

...who was the last incumbent Governor to win re-election, despite consistently hovering at an approval rating below 40%?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 12:33:15 PM UTC

good question

I would like to know the answer.

If Corzine pulls a rabbit out of this hat, in the middle of the worst recession in 25 years, it will be absolutely devastating to Republican morale.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 12:46:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe Gray Davis?

He was pretty unpopular in 2002 and still got reelected over that nutbag that pledged to keep the "soul" of the Republican Party intact.  (The State of California, not so much)

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 12:53:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Blago?

His may have been worse when he beat Topinka.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 14:09:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rick Perry and John Baldacci

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by: jmartin4s @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 14:27:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Arnold when really low

It wasn't sustained but for a short while he looked toast in late 2005 and early 2006.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 14:40:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And both won less than 40% of the vote!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 15:51:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Go Jon Go!

I'm looking forward to November when Jon Corzine wins this race.  Corzine can win this race, and he should win this race.  He may be unpopular, but from what I've seen, I don't think there are many politicians in the Garden state that are wildly popular.  Menendez was in trouble in 2006, but he was elected by a decent margin.  Lautenberg was also considered to be endangered, but he won in double digits.  If my memory serves me correct, both Menendez and Lautenberg both outperformed the polls on election day.

If I had to guess, a Corzine/Christie/Daggett race will eventually end up at 47/45/8, with Corzine squeaking it out.

I'm optimistic on this race.  To me, this race is pretty much to a tossup now, but Corzine will keep hammering away and will be re-elected.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 12:48:37 PM UTC

Lucy is holding out the football for Charlie Brown....

 You have probably heard that quote before. Republicans have not won a statewide race in New Jersey. They always get worked up about them, thinking they have a shot. In 2000, they thought Bob Franks would beat Corzine but Franks lost by 3 points. In 2002, Forrester lost by ten points to Lautenberg. In 2006, Menendez beat Thomas Kean Jr. by 9 points. These are all races Republicans thought they could win. Well, they did not.

Even I got a bit worried that Corzine would lose but when he unleased the money and started exposing Christie problems (which happens all the time because if you live in New Jersey, you will know that politicians just bash each other and try to paint the other as a crook,) I knew this race would be a nail biter.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 13:35:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It goes back further than that

Jim Florio ended up losing by a tiny margin to Christie Whitman after beind down double digits late in polling. Even before that Brendan Byrne actually ended up winning from being in a similar hole. This isn't over. It is on the brink of being a tossup. I think it will be by election day but work has still to be done. I'd feel much confident if the president had a couple trips planned for later in the month.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 14:43:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NJ Polls and physical appearance of candidates

Should be looked at as broad barometer as opposed to a kiss of death for Democrats.

Christie is flawed, and the news is out about his questionable ethical conduct.  Also, IMO Christie doesn't look very good on TV.  Part of the reason is that Christie has a weight afliction (I'm trying to be nice) and subconsciously many of us tend to view obese people as complacent and lazy.  Although Jon is no beauty, he's not physically unappealing as Christie.  I always thought that in NC many voters may have voted for Kay over Liddy because Kay is attractive and Liddy is old and getting more feeble.  Appearances do matter...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 15:15:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

R2K crosstabs

here.

Two positive signs: Corzine is winning women and many undecideds are from his base. One negative sign: Christie's favorables are not underwater in this poll. Upshot: Corzine is outperforming his favorables and Christie is about matching his.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 14:55:53 PM UTC

I think the former is more important

If Dems come home and vote Corzine wins. How did the debate go?

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 15:04:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I didn't watch

but I doubt almost anyone else did either.

I think Corzine's attacks are sticking, though.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 15:10:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CQ

Says the debates were pretty tame compared to the ads both men have been running.

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by: admnok @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 15:34:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mmmm

Not sure who that helps. Maybe if Christie did nothing to stop the trend that is good news.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 15:43:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Most everyone agrees that Daggett won the debate.

I think he did too, but this isn't just me saying this. Most analysts and newspapers thought so as well. Daggett's not a natural public speaker, but he managed to get in all the zingers (at one point, when Christie and Corzine both said they thought it was good to have an independent voice in the race, he said, "Sounds like these two guys might vote for me!"). He also impressed by being the only one of the candidates who had a clear and detailed plan for providing property tax relief. Christie still refuses to specifically say what he'll do, and Corzine isn't really covering the issue. I recommend skimming a transcript of the debate (not sure the issues will be as interesting to you as they are to me, as a New Jerseyan), but just to give you an overall sense of it, Corzine's performance was bland and underwhelming, Christie came out of the debate "bloodied," according to the Star-Ledger, and Daggett was the only one who came out of the debate looking good.  

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 01:27:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, and by the way...

Christie tried a terrible, terrible catchphrase out for size in his closing statement:
"Hope can be real again."
I can't even type that with a straight face.

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 01:35:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]