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NJ-Gov, VA-Gov: Republicans Lead in New R2K Polls

by: James L.

Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 3:41 PM EDT


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/3-5, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40 (39)
Chris Christie (R): 48 (46)
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4%)

Being down by "only eight" is about as rosy as it has gotten for Corzine over the last month. The glimmer of hope for Corzine here is that many of the undecideds are minority voters; 28% of African-American voters, 18% of Hispanics, and another 18% of "Others" are still noncommittal, while only 4% of whites are still on the fence -- a slice of the electorate where Christie is enjoying a monstrous 58-34 lead. (Hat-tip: andgarden)

And now for Virginia...

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/3-5, likely voters, 6/15-17 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (44)
Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (45)
Undecided: 6 (11)
(MoE: ±4%)

The fact that this one isn't as ugly as PPP's findings (McDonnell +14) or SUSA's (M+15) is cold comfort right now. Again, if the 22% of African-American voters who are on the fence come home to Deeds, the margin becomes quite a bit tighter, but Deeds will need to shave off some McDonnell voters in order to get the job done.

Another point of interest here is that R2K finds Deeds ahead by 65-27 in "Northern Virgina". Of course, I'm not sure how exactly R2K has defined NoVA, but SUSA had Northeast Virginia going for McConnell by 56-41 in their polling last week. (PPP found the 703 going to Deeds by a very limp 51-44 margin.) In any case, these are the voters that Deeds will have to excite, so it's time to get cracking.

RaceTracker Wiki: NJ-Gov | VA-Gov
James L. :: NJ-Gov, VA-Gov: Republicans Lead in New R2K Polls
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NJ-Gov, VA-Gov: Republicans Lead in New R2K Polls | 27 comments
What about the indie in NJ?
Did he not get polled?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Not as far as I can tell
Not sure where those missing 3% belong, though.
[ Parent ]
I thought that
Prediction - winner doesn't get 50% because some people who want to vote against Corzine vote for Daggett instead of holding their nose voting for Christie. The debates are crucial.
[ Parent ]
Elections in NJ are fought on TV
So far as I know, Daggett isn't on TV. He's an also ran.
[ Parent ]
Hence the debates no?

[ Parent ]
Maybe
I'm not sure how much TV attention a debate will get. Not as convenient as TV ads.
[ Parent ]
On the contrary
Daggett qualified for matching funds and thus will appear in the television debates, in addition to presumably running ads on TV and radio.
[ Parent ]
I think passing some health care
legislation by November is necessary for Deeds to win.  The glow from passing major healthcare reform might get the Democrats to come out for Deeds in November.

Deeds isn't going to win this race unless the Obama voters show up.  He isn't going to be able to win it in SW Virginia and by winning moderates and conservatives.  

END OF RECESSION
I think when Q3 is reported and it is official that the recession is over, then democrats can cleam some credit which should give them somewhat of a boost.  This will probably help Obama's numbers quite a bit so he will have a little more political capital to spend on VA.  I doubt he will spend any in NJ because if he helps Corizine through, there isn't much gained and he loses some capital and if Corizine loses Obama takes a hit for being so involved with the race.
[ Parent ]
End of recession will help some
with independents and moderates.  But Deeds will end up with his share of them.

Not passing a health care plan by November (or that it looks like it will clearly pass) means that the liberal/black base stays home.  And Deeds loses if the base doesn't come out.

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen NJ
50-37 so similar ballpark.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

My brain has gone to mush
Can somebody convert the topline for me in Virginia if turnout was even, say 36-36. Thanks.
Deeds wins Dems 77-17
McD wins Repubs 88-6 and independents (28% of the total vote) 55-40.
[ Parent ]
53-41, I believe.

[ Parent ]
Thanks

[ Parent ]
Deeds
There was a 538 piece right after the primary.  It said that Deeds' strategy in the primary was focused on persuasion rather than turnout.  I think he's doing the same thing in the general - trying to convince those who will turn out, no matter what, to vote for him.

I've always found Deeds to be a compelling candidate, so perhaps I am biased, but I think that he might just be able to pull it off.  With some smart use of TV time and President Obama's help in NoVa, I like his chances.

Thats not going to be enough.
In terms of what the likely voter model is right now for Deeds, there isn't enough voters for him to simply persuade them to vote for him. Even if he evens up the indepedent vote it would be enough. Deeds needs to turn out the young and the blacks or he won't win. He will likely do much better than the typcial Democrat downstate, but unless he wins that region by crushing margins (Deeds may be from Bath County but the region still heavily leans in the GOP direction and McDonnell isn't losing massive amounts of Republican leaning voters there) there simply isn't enough voters to make up for poor turnout in NOVA. While Deeds may be somewhat reluctant because of Obama weakening numbers in the state, he desperately needs the President to significantly increase the number of young and black voters in that region. He will need to get rid of his deficit with indepdents voters with McDonnell to ultimatley win, but getting the base to turnout is his most immediant priority. If it doesn't turn out then a win or a modest loss could very well turn into the blowout victory so many of these polls are showing. Deeds is starting to look weaker in Corzine in NJ, and that isn't a good sign.
[ Parent ]
Weaker than Corzine?
Major
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
loldogs?
Is this some new phenomenon?

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Hold on there!
To say Deeds is weaker than Corzine is simply ridiculous. There are still 3 months still to go, and most people aren't paying any attention. You are right that Deeds needs to focus more on NOVA and African American areas, no question, and there are signs that Deeds is getting the message.

But by no means is this as far gone as NJ.

[ Parent ]
BREAKING
Mel Martinez is resigning. What will Charlie Crist do?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
WHAT?
Why?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Palinitis
No way Crist appoints himself. Caretaker time.
[ Parent ]
Palinitis?
Does he want out because he's sick of the whole damn situation, or does he want out because he himself is sick of the whole damn situation?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Whatever he is out without completing his one and only term
I imagine he is leaving because he wants to start cashing in. Why wait until January when he is leaving anyway?
[ Parent ]
FL Sen
The fix says that it will be former repub gov from 1986-1990... Something Martinez, I wonder if he is a moderate or uber conservative.  If Crist is smart he will put the most conservative guy he can find to quash Marco Rubio.
He's pretty right wing
Defeated after one term by Lawton Chiles.  
[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov, VA-Gov: Republicans Lead in New R2K Polls | 27 comments

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