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KY-Sen: Mongiardo Posts Big Lead Over Conway in Own Poll

by: James L.

Thu May 28, 2009 at 9:54 PM EDT

Garin Hart Yang for Dan Mongiardo (5/12-13, registered Democrats):

Dan Mongiardo (D): 43
Jack Conway (D): 28
Undecided: 29
(MoE: ±5.4%)

The Conway camp is raising a big stink over this poll, correctly pointing to the methodology's rather portly margin of error. However, this is the first poll we've seen of the primary, and it's not at all inconceivable that Mongiardo would be starting the race in the lead; a February poll from Research 2000 indicated that Mongiardo has stronger name recognition throughout the state, with only 5% of Democrats not having an opinion of him compared to 24% for Conway.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary continues to be lively:

Conway is scheduled to attend a Saturday night fundraiser at the Fort Mitchell home of Nathan Smith, the former vice chairman of the Kentucky Democratic Party. [Mongiardo spokesman Kim] Geveden noted that the suggested contributions for the event are $250 to attend the fundraiser, but for $1,000 contributors can attend a "private conversation" with Conway.
"If Jack is charging $1,000 for a private conversation I can't imagine what it would cost if he was ever elected U.S. Senator," Geveden said in an interview. "You don't have to pay $1 much less $1,000 to have a private conversation with Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo."

Only another year of this. Sigh.

James L. :: KY-Sen: Mongiardo Posts Big Lead Over Conway in Own Poll

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KY-Sen: Mongiardo Posts Big Lead Over Conway in Own Poll | 19 comments

Wow I didn't think they'd start

getting into it like this since there has to be a loser and the loser would still have a chance in a future race like governor or senator as long as they didn't offend the other guys camp.

I hope Mongiardo doesn't keep this tone.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 01:59:21 AM UTC

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Mongiardo seems to want to make this primary be

...the good ol' boy vs. the fancy boy.

by: James L. @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 02:02:40 AM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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What a ridiculous move

As if Mongiardo won't be hosting high-dollar fundraisers himself. This is one of the dumbest attacks I've ever seen in a primary - and a great way to turn voters off before Nov. 2010. Sigh.

by: DavidNYC @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 02:58:58 AM UTC

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yes,

its one of the completely stupid and irrelevant attacks politicians make knowing they're hypocritical but guessing voters probably won't be able to see as much. Its common business in politics. You pump rich guys for money. Its similar to Bush calling Kerry the most liberal Senator in 2004 even though he knew full well it was a skewed sample becuase the only votes Kerry came to vote for were big issues and so of course he would have voted 100% the party line, same thing with Obama, but the public didn't realize this little quirk and so it made a very good little attack, despite being a misconstruction and cheap.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 18:10:46 PM UTC

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So I could tell Mongiardo off about mountain top removal and supporting bigoted marriage amendments for free?

Oh thank you God!!!

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

by: ARDem @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 02:00:15 AM UTC

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lol

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 18:08:15 PM UTC

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Looks like I'm going to be ignoring

this race, then.

by: andgarden @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 02:33:34 AM UTC

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If it's Bunning

That's perfectly reasonable and honorable. We could beat Bunning with my dog. Lest I be misconstrued, I'm grieving the loss in the Supreme Court in California suffered with the passage of Prop 8 as hard as most anyone here. I do think, however, that despite being seen as a personal attack, Mongiardo's support of Really Crappy Marriage Amendments would be pretty much expected (if he didn't, there'd probably be outrage, in fact) outside of Louisville and, maybe, Lexington. I also personally believe there are national issues equal to, if not above, same-sex marriage in importance in our current multi-crisis world.

I'll admit I'm only indirectly affected, and only affected at all because of a promise I made to an good friend in college that I wouldn't get married until she could (her choices are New York...her birthplace, and the Maryland-DC metro area where she lives, so she may get the chance sooner than we think).

So, that said, I'm backing Conway. I think he's probably more liberal than Mongiardo but still someone who could do very well. But, if Mongiardo's the winner, I can't say I'll not send money to capture an easy seat, though...because I probably will.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 03:11:30 AM UTC

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If the stakes got high enough

(like maybe if we were going to lose the Senate) I'd consider it. I backed Bob Casey pretty strongly in '06.

But under the circumstances, I just don't need the aggravation. KY can choose its own Senator.

by: andgarden @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 03:19:31 AM UTC

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We can never pass up the chance to get a dem ellected unless...

He's corrupt or there is a better alternative. Whoever comes out of the primary will be better than any of the repbublicans. Who knows, if we keep pushing maybe we can get to 67 and get rid of that damn filibuster rule and reinstate it if we lose seats lol.

by: admnok @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 10:19:11 AM UTC

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If both of the candidates next November

are Kentucky bigots, it will be very hard to convince me that I have a dog in the race.

by: andgarden @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 14:22:13 PM UTC

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As someone who is actually gay and would like to be married

I'd still vote for a DOMA advocate if he lived in Kentucky because the republican surely does as well. But he may agree with me on climate change, supreme court nominees, et al. Politics isn't about finding your clone, it is about making the best choice of the worst choices. Obama and I don't agree on everything including gay marriage but his position allowed him to woo some moderates.

by: admnok @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 14:32:26 PM UTC

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If I lived in Kentucky, I could probably be convinced

to vote for him. However, from several states away, I'm not going to lift a finger.

by: andgarden @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 14:48:24 PM UTC

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Lifting a finger

Right now Kentucky is ranked number 4 in the most likely to flip according to fivethirtyeight.com If the republicans have to play defense here it will help us in places like Deleware and Colorado which I'm assuming you like having more liberal dems like Bennet and Biden? Also, a Kentucky dem would probably be more liberal than say Bill Nelson, and maybe Blanch Lincoln, or a couple of others. Thus pushing the democrats ability to push a more liberal agenda.

by: admnok @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 15:05:25 PM UTC

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You think I just rolled off the turnip truck?

You might have had a point in 2006. Not today.

by: andgarden @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 15:14:09 PM UTC

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andgarden

and this is where everything goes to heck.

We begin to look at the situation of...well we have the majorities....and we have the presidency and now we don't need to support moderate Dems anymore and should simply focus on getting liberals elected.

Wrong wrong and more wrong.

If that was the case, then don't bother with about 20 states because you aren't going to get true liberals elected statewide in them.

Facts are facts.....some Democrats like Ben Nelson are more conservative then most of us are. But he will still vote with us more than and Republican likely to be elected from his state.

The same thing could be said about Mongiardo.

Just because we have the majority is no reason to begin to throw people like Mogiardo out the window simply because he doesn't share tyour ideals on a few issues. He shares your ideals a hell of a lot more than Bunning does.

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

by: skywrnchsr509 @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 19:49:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My guess is that even you

have issue positions that would cause you not to support a Democrat.

But since this discussion is going places David doesn't like, I'm going to bow out.

by: andgarden @ Fri May 29, 2009 at 20:13:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

lets redirect it then...

obviously Kentucky present an opportunity in a primary. Many on here think Conway is the better candidate than Mongiardo and I'm going to agree with that so its Conway that has my support in this primary. I have no problem trying to get the better Dem elected in open seats like this.

But if Mongiardo wins....a senate seat is a senate seat and if we can win it, we need to support the winner of the primary as best we can.

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

by: skywrnchsr509 @ Sat May 30, 2009 at 03:45:57 AM UTC

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I wouldnt even think of donating to him

but I only donated to like 5 last time so meh. But I wouldnt be too heart broken, but that depends on how the election goes and how he turns out to be on other issues.

by: Andrew @ Sat May 30, 2009 at 06:45:15 AM UTC

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