NJ and VA are moving in opposite directions

But I don't feel great about either race, and I think the most likely outcome is that Dems will lose both.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 10:22:59 AM CDT

Agreed

as it is looking like we've got a better change holding the garden state now

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by: lordpet8 @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 14:54:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Isnt this how Deeds won the primary?

Focus all on ROVA (rest of virginia), he let Moran and McCauliffe battle each other on the NOVA air waves and then in the end, he finally started his advertising push there, closed the gap, and won the primary in a bit of a route.

Do you think he's trying a similar strategy?  

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by: Andrew @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 10:25:26 AM CDT

Maybe

But then again, the reason that strategy was smart in the primaries was because he could count on Moran and McAuliffe ripping each other to shreds. In a two-way race, this is a disatrous strategy, he needs to get some presence in NoVa now (not necessarily the form of television ads, but something).

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

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by: DGM @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 11:19:28 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Little problem there

He had two primary opponents. You can't sneak through like that in a general (at least, not in the United States).

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by: DavidNYC @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 21:19:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

the reason he came back in NOVA

Was purely the Washingtonpost endorsement...  IMO anyway.  I think what deeds needs to do is get the base engaged.  Even if he isn't the most liberal guy he needs to remind them that the future of Virgiinia and whether or not we get to keep the dem gains we've made in the house and such rest on him and redistricting.

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by: admnok @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 10:32:01 AM CDT

That's a half-truth, admnok......

The WaPo support definitely helped and gave Creigh some margin, but he had a very good TV ad on the air up here and otherwise benefited from a statewide surge that had nothing to do with WaPo.  He might not have won the region outright without WaPo, but he would've been competitive and run much closer than anyone thought possible.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 14:09:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Initially I was having a bad time with Doug Wilder.

But now now I am pissed off with deeds. What is preventing him from exploring both ROVA and NOVA simultaneously? It cannot be money. Kaine can give him all he needs.

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by: fai calif @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 12:38:44 PM CDT

Anyone

know why Deeds was able to make it REALLY close to McDonnell in the AG race in 2005.  

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by: ehstronghold @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 13:07:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Coattails, ehstronghold. Coattails.

Kaine's October surge carried over downballot.  Even the very liberal Northern Virginian Leslie Byrne almost got elected that year.

That's not to say Deeds' campaign or Byrne's campaign didn't matter.  Campaigns always matter.

But ultimately Deeds and Byrne both had looked like goners for a long time, and yet they caught up at the end because they were in Kaine's party.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 14:12:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Give this one time

Im not going to pay attention to this one until late september. Deeds should pull even by late september early october, we just need to give this one some time.

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by: jmartin4s @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 13:56:53 PM CDT

Let me add a qualifier to my comment DavidNYC highlighted......

One thing I should have considered and didn't as I typed was that Deeds' statewide campaign hq is in Alexandria, and it's possible all the NoVA field work is being coordinated from there.  I'm open to that possibility.  I've never visited the hq in Alexandria, so I just don't know.  And this train of thought makes me want to make time for a visit!

So it's plausible that my observations are misleading, and fairness to the Deeds campaign dictates that I acknowledge that.  My walk lists have always included asking for data on the Governor's race,* and with limited resources the Deeds folks might have decided that such piggybacking is the best way to canvass when they just don't have the unprecedented gobs of volunteers Obama enjoyed here.  That's not necessarily a bad canvassing strategy.

But the problem, of course, is that the above possibility only begs the question:  "What's the purpose of the Deeds cubicles in Tysons Corner?"  Is it extra space they plan to grow into?  Or, is it indeed like the McCain campaign, an eerie signal of how bad things are going?  Deeds has, in fact, been invisible here.  There are virtually no bumper stickers and not a single yard sign anywhere in McLean that I've driven, and I get around.  There are no radio or TV ads.  My wife and I have received no direct mail, even though we both voted last November and when we showed up on my own walk lists last year I made sure to put her down as "independent" which she is and that should carry over to current voter identification lists--so she's exactly the type of voter who should receive direct mail.

Again, maybe the Deeds campaign has made a strategic decision to conserve resources and then go hog wild on direct mail and radio and TV after Labor Day.  It's possible that's a good strategy if the budget doesn't allow more earlier.

I'm at least heartened that the WaPo poll confirms that most people aren't paying close attention, and indeed are much more disengaged than at this time in 2001 and 2005.  WaPo polls for Maryland and Virginia are, IMO, the gold standard in polling for these states' elections, and I take this poll more seriously than any other.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 13:58:38 PM CDT

Yeah

Number that could change their mind or are still undecided (a whopping 52% of RV) was slightly shocking to me. But at the same time encouraging. Deeds actually has a slightly firmer base of definite voters at least in this poll. What is says to me is that if people actually get to hear from Deeds they are open to supporting him. And the same poll at a similar stage (actually September 6-9) four years ago? 51-44 Kilgore. Don't give up on this one yet folks.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 16:23:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thanks for all your reports

From the field.

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by: DavidNYC @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 21:20:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

lol, VA-Sen?

I think you mean VA-Gov

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by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 15:05:48 PM CDT

Um, wow

I can't believe that no one (including myself) noticed this until now. Thanks -- I just changed that.

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by: James L. @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 15:20:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

During the primary

NLS used the term Creightards. I was not happy. Now Creigtards does not seem to be a misnomer.

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by: fai calif @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 17:54:26 PM CDT

VA

What a horribly run campaign, I feel bad for supporting him during the Primary.  It's like they are trying to lose.

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by: Tekzilla @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 00:37:14 AM CDT