VA-Gov: Fifth Pollster Shows Big Deeds Gap

Taylor Nelson Sofres for the Washington Post (8/11-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Creigh Deeds (D): 39

Bob McDonnell (R): 54

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±_._)

The MoE is blank because the WaPo didn’t specify how many out of their 1,002 registered voters qualify for their likely voter screen. It would hardly seem to matter, though – the Washington Post (via a company called TNS) is now the fifth pollster to peg Deeds well behind after his post-primary bounce. The WaPo hasn’t tested before, but the other four outfits (R2K, PP, SUSA and Rasmussuen) have all shown sharp declines in the trendlines. I’ll just let the picture do the talking:

It looks like this isn’t shaping up to be our year. And this tidbit from SSPer DCCyclone (whose activism is commendable) doesn’t inspire me, either:

Deeds has been invisible in NoVA all this time. I’ve been door-knocking for Del. Margi Vanderhye’s reelection with Deeds piggybacking on it, and beyond such piggybacking there’s been no sign of Deeds doing anything. I was in the coordinated campaign office in Tysons on Saturday to pick up my walk list, and the Vanderhye field director was the only human being present in the entire huge, cavernous offices. The Deeds cubicles were dark and abandoned. I hope they were all out door-knocking! But they certainly aren’t soliciting volunteers to help!

Sadly, this reminds me all too well of Sean Quinn’s regular dispatches about dark or nearly empty McCain HQs around the nation last year. Sigh.

(Hat-tip: Kyle)

UPDATE: DCCyclone chimes in again in the comments with some more thoughts.

18 thoughts on “VA-Gov: Fifth Pollster Shows Big Deeds Gap”

  1. But I don’t feel great about either race, and I think the most likely outcome is that Dems will lose both.  

  2. Focus all on ROVA (rest of virginia), he let Moran and McCauliffe battle each other on the NOVA air waves and then in the end, he finally started his advertising push there, closed the gap, and won the primary in a bit of a route.

    Do you think he’s trying a similar strategy?  

  3. Was purely the Washingtonpost endorsement…  IMO anyway.  I think what deeds needs to do is get the base engaged.  Even if he isn’t the most liberal guy he needs to remind them that the future of Virgiinia and whether or not we get to keep the dem gains we’ve made in the house and such rest on him and redistricting.

  4. But now now I am pissed off with deeds. What is preventing him from exploring both ROVA and NOVA simultaneously? It cannot be money. Kaine can give him all he needs.

  5. Im not going to pay attention to this one until late september. Deeds should pull even by late september early october, we just need to give this one some time.

  6. One thing I should have considered and didn’t as I typed was that Deeds’ statewide campaign hq is in Alexandria, and it’s possible all the NoVA field work is being coordinated from there.  I’m open to that possibility.  I’ve never visited the hq in Alexandria, so I just don’t know.  And this train of thought makes me want to make time for a visit!

    So it’s plausible that my observations are misleading, and fairness to the Deeds campaign dictates that I acknowledge that.  My walk lists have always included asking for data on the Governor’s race,* and with limited resources the Deeds folks might have decided that such piggybacking is the best way to canvass when they just don’t have the unprecedented gobs of volunteers Obama enjoyed here.  That’s not necessarily a bad canvassing strategy.

    But the problem, of course, is that the above possibility only begs the question:  “What’s the purpose of the Deeds cubicles in Tysons Corner?”  Is it extra space they plan to grow into?  Or, is it indeed like the McCain campaign, an eerie signal of how bad things are going?  Deeds has, in fact, been invisible here.  There are virtually no bumper stickers and not a single yard sign anywhere in McLean that I’ve driven, and I get around.  There are no radio or TV ads.  My wife and I have received no direct mail, even though we both voted last November and when we showed up on my own walk lists last year I made sure to put her down as “independent” which she is and that should carry over to current voter identification lists–so she’s exactly the type of voter who should receive direct mail.

    Again, maybe the Deeds campaign has made a strategic decision to conserve resources and then go hog wild on direct mail and radio and TV after Labor Day.  It’s possible that’s a good strategy if the budget doesn’t allow more earlier.

    I’m at least heartened that the WaPo poll confirms that most people aren’t paying close attention, and indeed are much more disengaged than at this time in 2001 and 2005.  WaPo polls for Maryland and Virginia are, IMO, the gold standard in polling for these states’ elections, and I take this poll more seriously than any other.

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