Yeah, I think Deeds is a goner

Not that I think Moran or McAuliffe would have done any better.

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by: davybaby @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 18:45:19 PM UTC

Nah, there's still time, but Deeds needs the economy...

...to start looking better to the everyman voter.  Not good, but just clearly going in the right direction.  We might not get that soon enough to save Deeds, but it's plausible voter confidence in the economy could strengthen enough to get him over the hump.

That all assumes Deeds runs a competent campaign from here on out, which I don't think he's done.  Deeds has been invisible in NoVA all this time.  I've been door-knocking for Del. Margi Vanderhye's reelection with Deeds piggybacking on it, and beyond such piggybacking there's been no sign of Deeds doing anything.  I was in the coordinated campaign office in Tysons on Saturday to pick up my walk list, and the Vanderhye field director was the only human being present in the entire huge, cavernous offices.  The Deeds cubicles were dark and abandoned.  I hope they were all out door-knocking!  But they certainly aren't soliciting volunteers to help!

Deeds has done some good things recently to reach out to the base, but what's occurred to me just this weekend is that, ultimately, he doesn't have an argument for wanting to be Governor that appeals across the board.  McDonnell's "Bob for Jobs" shtick works.  It just does.  Why does Creigh want to be Governor?  I know the boilerplate notion that he's a continuation of the successful Warner/Kaine era, but that doesn't really answer the question.  He needs an argument personal to himself, and it isn't there.  In short, there's no message.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 03:04:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is why I backed Moran

This is a base election, period. Moran would have appealed more to the base electorate in NoVa and the heavily African-American Democratic electorates in Richmond and Hampton Roads.

It will be sad if the most extremist, crazy, right-wing ticket in modern Virginia political history is able to get elected by political cross-dressing -- four more years of little to no progress in Virginia. But, that's how it's looking.  

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by: Ron @ Wed Aug 19, 2009 at 16:01:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ron, Moran was the least electable of the 3......

No Governor's race is a "base election" to the point of base voters overwhelming swing voters.

And you're overstating Moran's strength in NoVA, as the primary results themselves proved.  Primary voters are the base voters, and Deeds crushed Moran even in NoVA.  Even in Moran's own district Deeds stunningly outperformed all expectations by a lot.  If Moran couldn't perform better against Deeds in NoVa, then he would struggle against McDonnell in Fairfax, Prince William, and Loudoun.

Moran comes off as a fire-breathing liberal, and that plays poorly downstate.  It doesn't bother me, and indeed that would be my first choice, but that's secondary to winning.  Where Deeds might be overly concerned about holding down McDonnell's margins in rural white areas, Moran would get crushed there much worse than Warner and Kaine, and he doesn't have the pull elsewhere to make up the difference.  And Moran has never shown any particular strength with black voters to expect him to outperform with them or gin up turnout above normal levels.

We picked our best candidate.

Not the best campaign...that would have been McAuliffe.  But I've been door-knocking and can't imagine trying to sell McAuliffe in McLean where I live.

McAuliffe was the best campaign but a bad candidate.

Deeds is the best of the three as a candidate but running a terrible campaign.

But Moran has a bad statewide candidate profile and ran a terrible campaign.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 03:08:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think it depends on what the Virginia electorate

that shows up in 2009.  If it is similar to the one in 2004 (which is how it is looking now), McDonnell will win easily.  If it is similar to the one in 2008, Deeds has a chance.

IMO, Deeds will lose unless a health care bill is passed (or clearly will pass) before Election Day.  Unless health care reform is passed giving a victory to the administration, many first time voters in 2008 ("Obama Democrats") will simply not show up.

My prediction: McDonnell will lead big until mid-October.  Health care signing ceremony will be in late October.  Like in the primary, Deeds will surge like crazy at the end.  The race will be decided by less than 2% either way.  

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by: JSmith @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 19:21:58 PM UTC

Agree mostly with JSmith......

There has to be a health care bill signed before November.  But also confidence in the economy has to rise, and the timing of recovery is out of everyone's control and requires speed as a matter of dumb luck for Deeds to benefit.

Deeds, for his part, hasn't run a good campaign since winning the primary.  He did well in fundraising, and Joe Abbey is a good manager, but there's no message.  Why does Creigh Deeds want to be Governor?  I don't know.  I know why I will vote for him, and it's because I'm a base Democrat who wants the more liberal, or at least less conservative, candidate to win in almost any general election.  But there are not 51% of Virginia voters who want that.  Most want to hear why each candidate wants to be Governor.  McDonnell has explained it:  to build the economy and create jobs.  He doesn't have any ideas that actually will accomplish that, but he at least makes an argument for it, and that's more than Creigh has done in explaining his own candidacy.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 03:11:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Couldn't vote in the poll

Obviously if both states voted today Christie and McDonnell would win but we got quite a bit to go yet. Ask me again in the middle of October.

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by: conspiracy @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 21:27:54 PM UTC

Gone

VA seems pretty far gone.  Yes there is still 3 months, but Deeds is showing zero signs of turning things around.

At least Corzine has had some positive things lately.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 03:30:58 AM UTC

Well

Deeds showed no sign of life in the primary until the last month.

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by: JSmith @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 04:06:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

VA

All thanks to the WAPO endorsement.  His campaign did little to make that happen.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 14:51:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not true, Tekzilla, you're swallowing a myth......

I don't know if you heard this notion from Larry Sabato, but he, too, promotes the falsehood that "Deeds won because of the WaPo editorials."  Sabato's latest comments on the Virginia Guv race really have left me with no confidence in his knowledge of campaigns and elections.

It's just not true.

Deeds was running a fantastic campaign for months before the primary, largely thanks to campaign manager Joe Abbey.  Ben Tribbett at NotLarrySabato.com was pointing out how strong a campaign Deeds was running, and crediting Abbey, well before anyone else was acknowledging it, even though Ben himself ended up endorsing McAuliffe.  The Deeds campaign won because they made a critical strategic decision to ditch field and use their limited dollars on paid media, which was really what got Deeds over the hump.

Understand that the WaPo certainly helped, but all those editorials did was to turn what would have been a closer-but-still-convincing Deeds win into a full-scale blowout.  WaPo mattered only in NoVA, but Deeds cleaned house in every region of the state.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 17:48:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

there's no way a single news-paper endorsement led to that massive Deeds blowout.

Newspapers endorse candidates all the time and for the most part we tend to ignore them.

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by: skaje @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 20:43:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So

how did he win in a landslide in the entire state? I don't think the rest of Virginia would be that swayed by an endorsement by the Washington Post?

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 22:39:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My opinion

Dems saw Moran and McAuliffe brutalizing and pissing on each other rhetorically and said "No, thanks. We'll vote for the nice guy from downstate."

Deeds also had very strong support from the Democratic members of the Virginia State Senate, many of whom have the best grassroots operations in all of Virginia politics -- especially in NoVa. When state Senators like Mary Margaret Whipple in Arlington, Dick Saslaw in Alexandria/Fairfax, and Chap Petersen in Fairfax all came out -- strongly -- for Deeds, those weren't just empty endorsements, they were endorsements with built in field/grassroots components.  

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by: Ron @ Wed Aug 19, 2009 at 16:06:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]