Sestak still has a lot of work ahead of him in convincing Democratic primary voters to reject an incumbent they generally like (R2K finds Specter's approval among Dem voters to be a pretty sturdy 74-21 compared to Sestak's 51-8), but he's made some pretty significant progress already. (Rasmussen's primary poll, released on Wednesday, pegged the race at an even-narrower 47-34 for Specter.)
General election nums:
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (55)
Pat Toomey (R): 40 (31)
Joe Sestak (D): 42 (37)
Pat Toomey (R): 41 (32)
(MoE: ±4%)
It's clearly getting a bit hairier for Democrats everywhere lately, but these numbers are a far cry from Rasmussen (8/11, likely voters):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 36
Pat Toomey (R): 48
Other: 4
Joe Sestak (D): 35
Pat Toomey (R): 43
Other: 5
(MoE: ±3%)
For what it's worth, I find the R2K numbers a bit easier to believe, but in any case, this election isn't shaping up to be the cakewalk that it appeared to be in April. With a protracted Democratic nomination battle in place until the spring and the national environment getting sunnier for the GOP, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Likely D to Lean D. Pat Toomey is still a seriously flawed nominee with a lot of weaknesses to exploit, but the Democratic nominee (and the DSCC) will have to work harder than expected to keep him down.
