Research 2000 (8/10-12, likely voters, 5/4-6 in parens):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 48 (56)
Joe Sestak (D): 33 (11)
Undecided: 19 (33)
(MoE: ±5%)
Sestak still has a lot of work ahead of him in convincing Democratic primary voters to reject an incumbent they generally like (R2K finds Specter’s approval among Dem voters to be a pretty sturdy 74-21 compared to Sestak’s 51-8), but he’s made some pretty significant progress already. (Rasmussen’s primary poll, released on Wednesday, pegged the race at an even-narrower 47-34 for Specter.)
General election nums:
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (55)
Pat Toomey (R): 40 (31)Joe Sestak (D): 42 (37)
Pat Toomey (R): 41 (32)
(MoE: ±4%)
It’s clearly getting a bit hairier for Democrats everywhere lately, but these numbers are a far cry from Rasmussen (8/11, likely voters):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 36
Pat Toomey (R): 48
Other: 4Joe Sestak (D): 35
Pat Toomey (R): 43
Other: 5
(MoE: ±3%)
For what it’s worth, I find the R2K numbers a bit easier to believe, but in any case, this election isn’t shaping up to be the cakewalk that it appeared to be in April. With a protracted Democratic nomination battle in place until the spring and the national environment getting sunnier for the GOP, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Likely D to Lean D. Pat Toomey is still a seriously flawed nominee with a lot of weaknesses to exploit, but the Democratic nominee (and the DSCC) will have to work harder than expected to keep him down.
Looking at the crosstabs, I am not especially worried about the general election. Toomey just doesn’t have much room for growth against either Democrat.
Toomey trails against both in the Philly suburbs, where PA elections are decided. Moreover, look at blacks and the city of Philadelphia itself: there are lots of voters claiming to be undecided who are guaranteed to vote for the Democrat.
Six months of general election campaigning will doom Toomey (just imagine how far to the right Specter would move to marginalize Toomey).
This is a safe seat, which means absent a sleeping with sheep scandal we win.
we have a 1994 type scenario in 2010 (unlikely since partisan voting habits have hardened since then) or Sestak/Specter completely implode (more likely with Sestak than Specter). I think Toomey would slightly prefer Specter since the latter has 100% name ID, however, its still a long ways off and 3 months of heavy political bombardment will finish Toomey, even among the Dems who really never liked Specter.