| Our latest moves:
CT-Sen (Dodd): Lean D to Tossup
Chris Dodd may have received a bit of good news lately on the Countrywide mortgage fiasco (the Senate Ethics Committee cleared him of any wrongdoing and the Hartford Courant's editorial page recently came to his defense on the matter, saying that there was no there there), but it really remains to be seen whether or not the damage done to his reputation can reverse itself. The most recent Q-Poll has ex-Rep. Rob Simmons beating Dodd by a 48-39 margin; if an incumbent under 50 is in an ugly situation, an incumbent under 40 is in seriously dangerous waters. While we've held out hope that Dodd can correct his course, he doesn't seem to be doing any better than running in place. His best hope right now may be for an extremely expensive, nasty Republican primary.
Of course, with the recent news that Dodd is undergoing treatment for prostate cancer, it's possible that he may choose to retire, in which case this race will be turned upside-down yet again. (J)
IL-Sen (Open): Likely D to Lean D
It's difficult to imagine Barack Obama's home state voting to put a check on the White House's power next year, but with Rep. Mark Kirk making his candidacy official and popular state Attorney General Lisa Madigan taking a pass on the race, the GOP has about as good of a shot as they're gonna get. Yes, Kirk didn't exactly have the smoothest launch possible, but his most recent Twitterfail isn't the kind of stuff that will sear itself into anyone's lasting memory besides the most diehard of newsjunkies. What he does bring to the table, though, is the resume of a battle-hardened incumbent who has performed the rare feat of surviving in a Dem-leaning district since 2000.
The likely Democratic nominee, on the other hand, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, is bringing some baggage to the table in the form of his family's bank loans to convicted felons and his unsuccessful overhaul of the state's college investment program -- a fund that lost $85 million under Giannoulias' watch. Giannoulias touts his ties to Barack Obama at every possible moment, but it remains to be seen whether Obama, who is notoriously squeamish when it comes to campaigning for fellow Democrats, will come to his aid anytime soon.
Of course, the news that Roland Burris may be reconsidering his decision to retire doesn't help things out in the least. The sheer power of Illinois' blue slant is the only thing keeping this race out of the Tossup column. (J)
MA-Gov (Patrick): Likely D to Lean D
Deval Patrick's approval ratings are bad even by the standards of most other governors in northeast and Rust Belt states. On top of that, a recent Boston Globe poll shows Patrick narrowly trailing both of his prospective Republican opponents. This poll is also likely to encourage Democrat-turned-Independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill to get into the race. The good news for Democrats is that Cahill seems to sop up most of the Democratic anti-Patrick protest votes that were going to the Republicans. The bad news for Patrick, in particular, though, is that there are just so many protest votes that it's plausible Cahill could ride them to victory. It's entirely possible that, a year from now, we could have two "Lean I" races on our board (here and in Rhode Island). (C) |
