SC-04

Inglis looks like a dead man walking. He's got five (!) opponents already, and two of them look viable, Thomas and a prosecutor named Trey Gowdy, who's raised $88k so far (compared to Inglis's $130k, although Inglis has $180k on hand). If either force him into a runoff, it doesn't seem likely that he'd survive.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 19:52:45 PM UTC

I hope he wins

Inglis is a very conservative Republican, so not someone I'd ever actually favor in a general election, but he has shown integrity, courage, and an independent spirit. It would be sad and a real shame if he loses the Republican primary.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 20:02:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Further comment

If he does lose, I wonder whether President Obama would consider nominating him for a position of some kind.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 20:02:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

craziness

I used to live in South Carolina, and Bob Inglis was very popular among the Republicans there...a real conservative's conservative, with a statewide profile from his run against former Senator Fritz Hollings.

To imagine Inglis finding himself left of his party...it's just pure craziness.

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by: skaje @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 21:20:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Inglis I vs. Inglis II

Inglis was in the House from 1992-98, where he was a true whack-job. He gave up his seat to run against Se. Fritz Hollings in 1998, and then returned to Congress in 2004 to replace Jim DeMint.

Since Inglis returned to office he's certainly been a conservative Republican, but compared to his past--and to other South Carolina Rethugs--he seems almost sane.

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by: davybaby @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 22:31:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One thing I have noticed about Inglis

both in his first round in the House and this round, is that he never used racebaiting, unlike most Southern Repubs.  He has also lamented the racism in his party, aggressively hired blacks, and supported removing the Confederate flag.

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by: JSmith @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 01:19:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sounds similar to, though a bit more mellow than,

this dude.

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by: californianintexas @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 01:27:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

However,

in his first election, rumors were spread, allegedly by his campaign, that his opponent, incumbent Liz Patterson, was a Lesbian.  This, despite the fact that she was a Sunday school teacher.

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by: Vadranor @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 02:50:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I didn't say that Inglis wasn't a homophobe

he is.  I'm just saying that he is one of the few Southern Repubs who are not racist.  

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by: JSmith @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 02:53:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who are the others?

The only non-racist Rs that stick out in my mind are John Warner, Charlie Crist and maybe Bill Young of FL-10. I'm not too sure about the Bushes. Homophobic? Yes. Classist? Yes, but racist?

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by: corran horn @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 17:57:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I lived in SC, but not the 4th CD during that election...

... and this is the first I have heard of Lesbian rumors.  Not saying it didn't happen, but it must have been below the radar somewhat.  He did run a stealth campaign that year, and she underestimated him.

Inglis is a genuine 'thinker', and he has shown true courage.  Unless there is a hard fought Democratic primary in this race, I will be compelled to vote for him in the GOP primary. A thinking conservative is far better than a knee jerk reactionary like David Thomas.        

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by: vicupstate @ Mon Aug 10, 2009 at 12:54:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Inglis

Might actually be better served just running for Gov. Given that hed probably be the lone, sane conservative in a stacked GOP field he might have a real shot at winning. There are sane conservatives even in SC and they might be enough to get him to 30% or so. And that might be enough to win it all.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 06:21:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Possibly in the first round

but not in a runoff

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by: fatcathobbes @ Mon Aug 10, 2009 at 06:23:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Virginia US House Seats

This is just my view from Florida, as I've followed Perriello closely since he's a fairly progressive Democrat from a somewhat conservative, although traditionally Democratic, district.

Perriello is doing town halls I believe in all counties of the 5th district over the recess, as well as other outreach events, including volunteering for Habitat for Humanity. He seems to be doing more town halls than any other Congress member from looking at schedules and news reports and has even avoided the rioting rallies that other members have faced. He similarly campaigned all over the district, including opening offices in all the counties, in the 2008 campaign, which I think helped him get elected. I actually think he will get re-elected, even with many progressive votes, especially the energy bill, that he has been taking in Congress, as he has a good real-populist appeal with actual votes and a campaign finance stance (rejection of PAC money) to stand up for it.

On the other hand, Glenn Nye might have more trouble, especially with that recent controversy about being for and against the energy bill and the final vote against it. I'm not sure if Nye's district is as traditionally Democratic either, although he does have the military appeal and his young age would certainly benefit his district down the road.

I would be interested in hearing what Virginians think about the re-election prospects of the two first-term incumbents.

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by: Progressive America @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 19:59:39 PM UTC

Nye vs. Perriello

I would say Nye is slightly safer than Perriello, but both are in trouble, especially if 2010 turns out to be a bad year for Democrats. Nye's likely opponent is a car dealership magnate named Scott Rigell, who will undoubtedly dump millions of his personal fortune in the race, but as we've seen with Vern Buchanan, car dealers don't make very good candidates. There are a couple Republican officeholders in Virginia Beach that would have made good candidates -- State Sen. Frank Wagner and State Del. Sal Iaquinto -- but it doesn't look like either of them are going to run, as Wagner's probably been pushed out by Rigell and Iaquinto endorsed Rigell. Nye has been pretty consistent in voting against spending bills while being more progressive on social issues, such as his support for the Matthew Shepard Act and the Lily Ledbetter Act. The ACES thing was an unfortunate gaffe, but I don't think it's a career-ender.

Perriello will probably face off against State Sen. Robert Hurt (Del. Rob Bell is supposedly content to stay in Virginia state politics, and would be a very tough opponent), who hasn't announced anything yet but seems to be the most likely candidate. Hurt is from the heavily-Republican southwest part of the district, so he won't cut into Perriello's base, but he's also going to be less controversial (by default) than Virgil Goode was. Perriello comes off as very nice, very respectable and very honest, which I think was how he won over enough voters to win in 2008 despite probably being a bit to the left of his district. He's also been very involved in his district's well-being, such as devoting 10% of his campaign activity to community service projects.

The big question mark is turnout. 2010 will have no statewide races on the ballot, and the only local election I know of will be the Virginia Beach City Council. Basically, Congress will be the only thing on the ballot in most of the state, so it'll be down to the House candidates to get voters out next year.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 20:21:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perriello is about as good

as we can hope from that district and probably then some.  I also think that if he survives 2010, and that's a big if, he will hold the seat for a long time, at least until he runs for Webb's or Warner's Senate seat.  
(More likely Webb unless Warner runs for President, which I bet he is kicking himself for not doing so in 2008.  Although I doubt Warner or for that matter anyone other than Obama could have beaten Clinton one-on-one in the primary.)

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by: JSmith @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 02:57:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perriello

If he can survive this and the next couple of elections hes probably safe. And not too long from now even a progressive like him will have a real shot at winning statewide in VA (yes, yes, I know Obama did but i try not to make comparisons. Obama is in a league of his own). And if he wins statewide...oh man the sky is the limit. A southern progressive Gov/Sen. from a swing state? Yeah you know where Im getting at ;).

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 06:27:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rubio demands?

Why is Rubio in a position to make demands on Governor Crist? He is way behind in the polls. Posturing much?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 20:03:55 PM UTC

IL-GOV

Hynes has wanted to move up for awhile; in the two races he seemed to want a little more (SEN in 2004, AG in this year), he unfortunately ended up in line behind forces of nature (Obama, Madigan). I dunno why he didn't try for Senate again, but if he wants a promotion, this isn't awful; he's well liked, he's creaming Quinn in the money race, and he's very, very, very boring- which IL voters might really, REALLY like after the all-drama, all-the-time of the Blago years.

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by: colbycakes @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 21:09:12 PM UTC

Its a no-lose

Situation from Hynes' perspective, The other thing is that while Hynes starts way behind in the polls, he's going to have the Chicago machine behind him and in a low turnout primary he's got a shot.

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by: safi @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 21:47:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The problem for Hynes

is that in a way he is already considered a loser in that he lost a primary that he was heavily favored.  
 

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by: JSmith @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 01:36:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

For example

Here's what the dolts at the National Review had to say about the race.  Hint: They really really wanted to face the black dude.

July '03

Republican Peter Fitzgerald's pending retirement makes this one of the GOP's two most vulnerable seats. Many Republicans were disappointed by former governor Jim Edgar's decision not to run; Andrew McKenna and Jack Ryan appear to be the current leaders for the nomination, though others may yet emerge. The Democrats have a crowded field, but the establishment appears to favor state comptroller Dan Hynes.

September '03

This open seat, now held by retiring Republican Peter Fitzgerald, is the Democrats' Georgia - their best 2004 pick-up opportunity. It's also another example of Republican recruitment problems. The GOP's best candidate, former Gov. Jim Edgar, has said he won't run. As of now, the smart money seems to be on Democratic comptroller Dan Hynes becoming the state's next senator, though there are lots of candidates on both sides and anything could happen.

In January:

This election remains the Democrats' best chance to pickup a seat currently held by a Republican and state comptroller Dan Hynes appears well on his way to winning his party's nomination. The GOP's best hope would be for state Sen. Barack Obama to upset him in the primary. LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER

In March:

 This has long looked like the Democrats' best pick-up opportunity in 2004. Now Blair Hull, who has led several recent polls for the Democratic nomination, is accused of abusing his ex-wife. A group called the Illinois Coalition Against Sexual Assault has called for him to withdraw and he appears ready to sink fast. Perhaps this will give comptroller Dan Hynes the opening he needs to win - he is probably the best candidate the Democrats can put forward. Another challenger is state senator Barack Obama, who holds a very narrow lead over Hynes in the latest survey. Republicans would love to run against a tainted Hull and they wouldn't mind facing Obama, either. The GOP is lining up behind former investment banker Jack Ryan, who is not to be confused with the former governor, also named Ryan, or the Tom Clancy action hero. LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER

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by: JSmith @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 01:36:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow

And only a few months later Obama was made a national star after a memorable speech at the DNC Convention. And a few months after that? He obliterated the carpetbagging, no chance in hell of winning Keyes. Oh and a few years later? He won an easy Presidential election (well, the last couple months were easy) against a well respected moderate. Not to mention winning the primary against the establishment behemoth known as Hillary Rodham Clinton. My how times have changed.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 06:36:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hynes has nothing to lose...

He's already run a primary campaign for Senate and lost (although this is assuaged by the fact that he lost to the current president of the United States :-). I guess he had no interest in giving it another go against Alexi Giannoulas.

His opening for the gubernatorial nomination was blocked by the Blagojevich scandal and the ascent of Pat Quinn. His path to attorney general was frustrated by Madigan's decision not to run for governor or Senate.

He will have spent 12 years as comptroller by the end of his term. If he doesn't try to move up now and waits until 2014, he'll eventually have to face Lisa Madigan in a gubernatorial primary. In my estimation, she is a much more formidable foe than Pat Quinn.

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by: NCDem @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 05:09:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No more carpetbaggers

While I have the utmost respect for Jan Schakowsky, her district does not need two representatives while the Tenth has none.  Today she endorsed her neighbor from Evanston, Julie Hamos, one of the two candidates from the Ninth District running for the Tenth District seat.

Both Julie Hamos and Dan Seals live in the Ninth District.  Isn't there anyone worthy from the Tenth to represent it?

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by: Ten Blue @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 22:00:43 PM UTC

When I lived in (today's) IL-10 in the '60s

The congressman was a young guy named Donald Rumsfeld.

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by: davybaby @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 22:34:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gues not

The one candidate who did, state senator Michael Bond, didn't raise enough money and bowed out.

BTW, any updates on the GOP side in that race?

I'm surprised IL's primary is so early. I thought it was still in March. I know they moved the primary earlier in presidential years, but I thought off-years stayed the same.

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by: corran horn @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 14:51:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm really afraid we're going to lose Dodd's seat...

There is no reason we should be in this situation in a state like Connecticut. Rob Simmons is a vanquished old fossil that John Cornyn was able to resurrect for this race with the promise of heavy NRSC involvement. We cannot give the GOP the satisfaction of taking this seat.

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by: NCDem @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 05:13:38 AM UTC

Too bad

Too bad ya'll can't pull off what we did to Bunning. The DSCC needs to realize, they have vulnerable incumbents. and when they do, they need to cut em off at the knees. But me, I'm fine with Dodd being the nominee

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by: GOPVOTER @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 05:15:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think it will happen

You will see either Susan B or Chris Murphy as the next senator from Connecticut.

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by: JSmith @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 05:47:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, I think Dodd will probably eventually bow out...

He can wait until the beginning of the year for his fortunes to turn around. Connecticut would obviously not be a competitive race with a different Democratic candidate.

Considering his recent cancer diagnosis and the health care fight, the party is giving him the time to turn things around. If his poll numbers are bad, come January or February, he will retire.

Don't forget state attorney general Richard Blumenthal, a man who is currently serving his fifth consecutive term. He has played Hamlet over running for Senate or governor for the better part of two decades. If Dodd drops out, I think he's probably the heir apparent.  

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by: NCDem @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 11:19:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why hasnt he ever run before?

Who the hell stays on as a statewide officer for 20 years without ever going for Gov or Senate.

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by: Andrew @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 17:32:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dick Blumenthal

has become kind of a nickname for that popular politician (there's one in about every state) who would be a favorite to win a Governor/Senator race, and who publicly "considers" it before deciding against it and continuing to stay in their current position. He generally does it for Governor, but he is "thinking" about running for Lieberman's seat in 2012 this time.

Another example would be ex-Mississippi AG Mike Moore, who's always touted as a Senate candidate but never runs.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 17:39:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And Auditor Crit Luallen in Kentucky.

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by: californianintexas @ Sun Aug 09, 2009 at 06:59:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So do I

He now has an easy out. Unless the polling turns look for an announcemet early in the new year.

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by: conspiracy @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 11:28:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who are the other vulnerable Dem incumbents?

Dodd is obviously the most endangered and the only one I consider a toss-up. Reid would probably be in trouble if there were any Republican bench left in Nevada. Same with Michael Bennet. Either Sestak or Specter will defeat Pat Toomey.

That's it for incumbents as I see it. The only reason the GOP is contesting Illinois is because they landed Mark Kirk. Whether or not Delaware is at all competitive hinges on Mike Castle's plans (it appears obvious that he's not running for anything next year, except out of DC).

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by: NCDem @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 11:25:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dodd and Bennet are about it

Reid will most likely face a no name because, aside from Dean Heller, the NV GOP has no one else to run. Porter lost, Gibbons and Krolicki are damaged goods, and they lost the state senate last year.

Specter is shaky, but I do not see Toomey winning statewide. A Republican needs repectable margins in the Philly area to have any shot, and Toomey will be annihilated there.

IL was lost to the GOP the moment Burris retired. It should still be competitive, but any chance of winning has gone out the window.

The only reason I include Bennet is because he's never faced an election before. However, his opponents are lackluster to say the least. When Both Ways Bob is your best candidate, you know you're in trouble.

If memory serves, the CT primaries are in August, so Dodd still has a lot of time left to either improve or get out of the way. My bet is that, come January, if his numbers have not improved, Dodd will call it quits.

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by: corran horn @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 14:18:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Both Ways Bob

? Please explain.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 15:46:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sure :-)

This was before your time here at SSP, but when Bob Beauprez, former CO-7 congressman, ran for governor, his primary opponent Marc Holtzman called him "Both Ways Bob" for his waffling and desire to have it both ways. While Bob won the primary, the nickname stuck and it hounded him until his 56-41 defeat in the general election.

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by: corran horn @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 16:48:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks

It sounded like a sexual reference to me. And now you know where my mind is (in the gutter, lol).

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 22:02:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

GA-09: Another Republican Emerges

State Rep. Bobby Reese.  He's a carpetbagging wingut:

http://www.gwinnettdailypost.c...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Sat Aug 08, 2009 at 16:10:22 PM UTC