Creigh Deeds (D): 37 (43)
Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (49)
Jody Wagner (D): 34 (40)
Bill Bolling (R-inc): 48 (46)
Steve Shannon (D): 32 (38)
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 45 (45)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Wow, these are scary ugly numbers all around. Tom Jensen has more:
The biggest problem hampering Deeds right now is a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for coming out to vote this fall. Although Barack Obama took Virginia 52-46 last November, those planning to vote in this year's election report having voted for John McCain by a margin of 52-41. Put another way, roughly 60% of people who voted for McCain last fall are planning to come out while only 42% of those who voted for Obama are. He probably needs to generate enough excitement around his candidacy to get out closer to 55% of those Obama voters if he's going to win.
There are some signs within the poll that Deeds' standing is likely to improve. For instance two of the largest groups of undecided voters are African Americans and those under 30, both groups that were very favorable to Barack Obama last year. He has a 64-3 lead with blacks and seems likely to pick up most of the undecideds as the election comes closer.
Still it's clear there's a lot of work to do. For instance his lead in northern Virginia is only 51-44 and among all voters describing themselves as suburbanites he trails McDonnell 51-37. By comparison a PPP survey right before the election last year showed Obama winning those folks 58-38, meaning at this point there's basically a 34 point turnaround with those voters.
As Jensen says, it's still too early to count Deeds out, but this looks to be the most challenging gubernatorial election for Democrats in Virginia in several cycles. Even during the 2005 campaign, which was no walk in the park for Tim Kaine, Republicans never enjoyed a lead this big. Democrats have good reason to be very concerned here.
