Announcement Time?

My money goes to the August recess.

Yay, recess!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 20:51:30 PM UTC

I imagine Melancon's fav/unfav

is because a certain percentage of the electorate is now automatically predisposed against a Democrat, and will say so.

Vitter's in decent shape overall, that said.  But I think Melancon can make a race of his if he plays his cards right.

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by: SC @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 21:05:54 PM UTC

how's Stormy's campaign developing?

Is she another Jesse Ventura on the make?

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by: Carl Nyberg @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 21:32:36 PM UTC

You can't be for real.

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by: James L. @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 21:34:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ventura could've only dreamed

of having her ability to perform, lock it up, and have it in the bag.  ;)  

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by: Andrew @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 23:37:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP is seriously weird lately

Melancon with a net unfavorable rating?  I don't believe it.  That said, the overall spread is believable, Melancon doesn't have a big statewide profile yet, Vitter being in the mid 40s is realistic.

We're possibly looking at a 6 seat pickup next year:

1. New Hampshire
2. Missouri
3. Ohio
4. Kentucky
5. North Carolina
6. Louisiana

That would leave the Senate split 66-34.  Should Hutchison and Coburn retire in Texas and Oklahoma, respectively, that's another two sleeper races on the horizon.  I'm especially excited about our chances in a Texas special election with a guy like Bill White.

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by: skaje @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 00:16:18 AM UTC

Coburn says he's running for one final term

But who knows what other kind of C Street shenanigans will come to light between now and election day!

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by: James L. @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 00:26:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pretty amazing that our possibilities come in a set of states like that one.

New Hampshire's hard and very recent Democratic turn aside, none of those states are obvious strongholds of ours.  In a neutral environment the other five all lean pretty significantly against us.  Two southern states, two border states, and Ohio.  Have we really picked up everything else that can be won already?

The answer is "not quite": there's still a seat in Nevada, two in Arizona, two in Maine, and one in Iowa left for us to win.  But we really are shockingly close to our maximum conceivable reach under current demographic conditions.  (Texas will be in play someday, but not yet.)

And we're clearly just plain lucky to control some of the seats we do.  Both seats in Montana, Colorado, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Virginia; one in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Alaska; and we're playing for both now in Missouri, Louisiana, and North Carolina.  There are a lot more seats that we're lucky to hold than there are seats that the GOP is lucky to hold anymore.  

If we fail to get health care and climate change passed in the Senate, even with all this good luck, I am going to lose faith in the institution entirely.  I really hope that doesn't happen.  I think they'll both pass this year though, and in a reasonably adequate form too.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 05:33:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ohio and Missouri are swing states

In any environment. North Carolina is headed that way. In normal circumstances you wouldn't expect to win in Kentucky and Louisiana but Bunning and Vitter are not normal.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 16:12:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are swing states too.

Except they have a very distinct Democratic lean, in all environments.  

Ohio and especially Missouri have a very distinct GOP lean, though they are close enough to be in play.  Obama failed to carry Missouri even in a 53-46 blowout.  Holding both Senate seats there will be pretty lucky, I think.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 06:38:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So, you think Louisiana is realistic?

We have yet to have any firm evidence of that. Let's wait and see what further polls show us, especially after Melancon announces officially.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 06:52:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Any incumbent at 44%

is some evidence of vulnerability.  And this is without negative/diaper campaigning.

Also, if Jindal farts around for a few months pretending to consider running, that is great for us, as it implies a lot of negative about Vitter, even if Jindal eventually passes.

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by: tommypaine @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 09:09:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think it a likely win

But it is competitive and Melancon wouldn't be getting in if he didn't think he had a chance. And the more GOP seats are challenged the less they can expend on Dem seats.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 16:15:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What we have is 6 targets

I dont see any realistic possibility of winning all 6 and losing none for a third straight cycle. The GOP have some decent targets themselves don't forget. In my own mind I think getting to 63 is a decent goal to be looking at.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 16:14:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

63 would be great.  It would mean we probably won MO, NH, and Kentucky and everthing else will be the same.  That'd mean we wouldn't have to rely on 3 of the blue dogs.  Most likely NE and the two form AR.

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by: admnok @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 17:06:38 PM UTC

We should be able to beat Rob Portman in Ohio.

I have little faith in Kentucky though.  Although I guess if Lunsford can hold McConnell to 53%, then it can be won.  

North Carolina should be fun though.  If I wanted a Senate staff job, I'd try to get on Hodes' campaign, but if I just wanted a fun campaign job, North Carolina is the senate race this cycle I think.  A growing state that's growing more Democratic would just be fun, I think.  Ohio, Missouri, and Kentucky would depress me but NC would be a place for optimism, even if the race is a lot tougher.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 06:45:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why is Missouri depressing?

Sure, it's an R-leaning state in the short run, but the Carnahan name is golden.  Robin wins in a walk. If the GOP threw someone like Akin up, I'd be more worried, but that's not happening, and once she's an incumbent, Carnahan will be difficult to dislodge in a state that's still just red of purple but heading bluewards fast.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 23:02:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dardenne

Are there any possibility that Jay(SoS)Dardenne, instead of Jindal who's reluctant to resign during
first term under the pressure from ruling GOP in order to save the office will run against Vitter ?

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by: ngshmshd @ Fri Jul 24, 2009 at 04:46:30 AM UTC