Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/2-4, registered voters):
Charlie Melancon (D): 41
David Vitter (R-inc): 48Don Cazayoux (D): 39
David Vitter (R-inc): 48Charlie Melancon (D): 40
Jay Dardenne (R): 49Don Cazayoux (D): 38
Jay Dardenne (R): 50
(MoE: ±4%)David Vitter (R-inc): 43
Jay Dardenne (R): 32
Stormy Daniels (R): 1
(MoE: ±5%)
David Vitter still seems to have an edge in his quest for re-election to his Louisiana senate seat, but it looks like he could have a rocky time of it in both the primary and the general. Vitter is polling below the 50% mark in each, and he has a lukewarm 49/42 favorable/unfavorable.
Vitter performs about the same against both Democrats polled (Rep. Charlie Melancon and ex-Rep. Don Cazayoux, neither of whom seem to be moving in the direction of running). Neither Melancon nor Cazayoux seems well-known outside their respective districts, so this is basically a test of “Generic D.” (Names that get talked up more as the eventual candidate include ex-Rep. Chris John, who lost to Vitter in 2004, and former Louisiana Democratic Party head Jim Bernhard, not that either of them are well-known, either.)
On the other hand, notice that Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne perfoms just as well as David Vitter, if slightly better. It may be that we’re seeing “Generic R” on the GOP side as well, and partisan lines are pretty hard-set (at least at this point, before people know much about the individual candidates). Dardenne is being talked up for the race by others, but publicly has been noncommital so far; out of all the favorables/unfavorables in this poll, Dardenne fares the best of anybody at 48/22.
Despite Dardenne’s favorables, Vitter beats Dardenne in the primary — not surprising, given how conservative the Louisiana GOP base is, and that Dardenne is something of a moderate figure while Vitter has been charging to the right. However, there’s a wild card here that wasn’t polled: Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins, who has made his interest in the race known. It would be interesting to see Perkins polled in this race, both whether the polarizing religious right talking head would fare worse than Vitter in the general, and his effect on the primary. It’s possible that in a 3-way primary, with Vitter and Perkins splitting the hard-right vote, Dardenne could sneak through with the support of what passes for moderates in Louisiana. (As you can see, the Stormy Daniels candidacy hasn’t aroused much interest yet, although I’m sure she won’t take that lying down.)
I think he’s going to run in the primary against Vitter. He has nowhere else to go.
I don’t think Vitter will lose his re-election. I do think that forcing the Republicans to spend money in a state they should be able to walk away with would be a victory in itself.
I think he’s going to struggle in a primary against whomever is his opponent. And, if he makes it out of that I think Jim Bernhard is going to beat him in the general.
Apparently, Bernhard wants to run. I think he’s waiting for a definitive no from Melancon and John, but he has a lot of cash to burn on this race after passing on previous races he could have run for and won.
He has some baggage that people on SSP aren’t going to like that I’m not going to mention right now, but Louisiana voters won’t frown upon it too much. If Vitter gets primaried and is forced to spend millions there, Bernhard could further compound his problems by dropping millions of his own on the race. The key here is a strong primary to Vitter.
To clarify a comment I posted last week on here: The state party ED asked me to remove the post that gave the impression that John was going to be the candidate for this race. He didn’t want people to think that John was necessarily the choice of the party.
I highly doubt any of the others will run. All have or will soon have very nice, comfy jobs. Bernhard has passed a lot of different times, I think this time he’ll give it a go.
As jd1 said, he’s got some problems and will not be my favorite Senator or candidate by any means (I expect him to be about as bad as Ben Nelson, probably the worst in our caucus) but it’s worth it to get rid of Vitter.
I think there was a fear that no mainstream GOP pol was going to challenge Vitter, and I really think she was only going to run if that was the case. Still, I think the fact that she got some attention made it clear that Vitter was not bulletproof in a GOP contest.
he’s the mostly likely candidate. I’d like to see Cazayoux go for a big high profile rematch against Cassidy, though it would be an uphill battle. Oh well, if he loses it makes redistricting easier; Cassidy and Scalise are thrown in together and Rodney Alexanders district goes further south to take in some more of the rural parts of this one, New Orleans takes in some of Scalises’ more conservative parts and Melancon loses territory to Boustany while taking in part of Baton Rouge. I don’t have the specific numbers crunched however, but I might do a rough draft some time in the near future.