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IL-Sen: McKenna Yields the Floor

by: James L.

Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 1:20 PM EDT


After some embarrassing vacillations late last week, it looks like Mark Tiberius Kirk has an open field for the GOP Senate nod. From The Hill:

Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna said Monday that he will not seek his state's open Senate seat next year if Rep. Mark Kirk (R) does, clearing the way for Kirk to have a smooth primary.

Just three days after Kirk was telling colleagues that he had decided not to run because of the primary opposition, McKenna released a short statement saying he and Kirk have reached an accord.

"As party chairman my goal has been to build Party unity," McKenna said. "Mark Kirk and I met last evening as part of an ongoing discussion about the U. S. Senate race. I reassured Mark that if he chooses to be a candidate, I will not oppose him."

On Friday, Kirk told the Hotline that he would definitely run as long as McKenna bowed out, so it appears that thrusters are on full from here on out.

Meanwhile, for Team Blue, it's beginning to look like state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is consolidating a respectable level of support; earlier today, he rolled out a load of endorsements from 60 officeholders in the state, including the support of Reps. Bill Foster and Phil Hare.

RaceTracker: IL-Sen

James L. :: IL-Sen: McKenna Yields the Floor
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Not too big a deal
Better obviously if he hadn't run but at worse this will be like Cardin-Steele in 2006. And the House seat should be forthcoming. Take with one hand give with the other.

This is good news for the GOP
In that now Kirk will definitly run without a high profile opponnet.

On the other hand, his hestitancy to go in with any type of competition in the primary is damaging to his image. It could conceivable emobolden a conserative Republican to jump into the race and go after Kirk.


His cap and trade vote is a more likely reason


[ Parent ]
McKenna Wasn't a High Profile Opponent
If anything, he was only notable for the Conservative Base's antipathy toward him. But your average voter probably thought he was a radio DJ from the suburbs.

[ Parent ]
madigan's move has had reverberations!
Giannoulias is clearing his field and Kirk is now clearing his.

Not so fast
Giannoulias still faces Chris Kennedy in the primary, and could face Cheryle Jackson. Kennedy has never held political office, but he is RFK's son and I wouldn't count him out for that reason alone. The point is, the Democratic primary might not be a clear shot for Giannoulias just yet...

[ Parent ]
Very true
I see the three heavy-hitters on our side being Giannoulias, Kennedy and Jackson. I'm pretty certain Jackson will run, but I'm less certain about Kennedy.

Interestingly, if that proves to be the case, it would mirror the dynamics of the 1992 and 2004 primaries. A prominent African American candidate (although Jackson has not held elected office like Obama and Moseley-Braun), a well-connected statewide officer (Giannoulias, Hynes, Dixon) and a wealthy businessman (Kennedy, Hull, and Hofield).


[ Parent ]
what makes Jackson a heavy?
She was a Blago flack. Has she ever been elected to anything?

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't be surprised to see Giannoulias hit 60%
There's really no way Kirk can even make this a competitive race.

This race will be more competitive than the 2004 and 2008 senate races
In both 2004 and 2008, the Republican got 27 and 29%, respectively.  Keyes and Sauerberg were warm bodies that the GOP establishment threw into the general election.  Kirk is a better candidate than both of these men.

Giannoulias should win, and I hope Alexi comes close to 60%.  I think it will be a bit closer...Kirk has held a Democratic seat by being a moderate, so a certain number of Democrats identify with him.  He's also the best candidate the GOP has to offer, and as long as he clears the GOP primary, he should make the race a "race to watch".

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Irrational exuberance
Unless Kirk flames out a la Mark Kennedy, this will probably be a single-digit race the entire 16 months of the campaign. Let's not underestimate this guy, considering he can get re-elected downticket from a 61-39 Obama victory.

[ Parent ]
Close Race
As a life long Illinois citizen, my two cents is that this is going to be a close race, with a lean in favor of Alexi. But I  think this is going to be a serious fight, a single digit victory.
Kirk actually increased his margin of victory to 8% against a 2nd time challenger in a year that Obama dominated his district. He has a very moderate image, he'll be very tough in the Chicago suburbs and should gain the support of traditional downstate Republicans.  Also, Alexi has some baggage from his State Treasurer job that you can expect Kirk will hit over and over again.
Still, Illinois is a Democratic state. And after all, this is the PRESIDENT's seat.  It's hard to imagine Pres. Obama stumping for Alexi in that last week and losing.  

[ Parent ]
Not true
Kirk actually increased his margin of victory to 8% against a 2nd time challenger in a year that Obama dominated his district.

I've heard this "Kirk increased his margin" thing before, but that's simply not the case:

2008:

Mark Kirk: 52.6%
Dan Seals: 47.4%

2006:

Mark Kirk: 53.4%
Dan Seals: 46.6%


[ Parent ]
Alexi Giannoulias fundraising
I heard that Giannoulias raised 1.8 million in the first quarter.

Yeah
and only 670k in the 2nd. Kirk almost matched that for his re-election campaign with 580k  

[ Parent ]
But...
Alexi Giannoulias doesn`t accept any contributions from federally registered lobbyists or corporate PACs.Let me quote from Giannoulias site:


Alexi for Illinois Exploratory Committee does not accept contributions from federally registered lobbyists or corporate PACs.

https://alexiforillinois.ngpho...

Could you say the same about Mark Kirk?I would like to know that.  


[ Parent ]

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