Not too big a deal

Better obviously if he hadn't run but at worse this will be like Cardin-Steele in 2006. And the House seat should be forthcoming. Take with one hand give with the other.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 12:24:26 PM CDT

This is good news for the GOP

In that now Kirk will definitly run without a high profile opponnet.

On the other hand, his hestitancy to go in with any type of competition in the primary is damaging to his image. It could conceivable emobolden a conserative Republican to jump into the race and go after Kirk.

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by: Jaxx Raxor @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 12:26:44 PM CDT

His cap and trade vote is a more likely reason

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 12:29:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

McKenna Wasn't a High Profile Opponent

If anything, he was only notable for the Conservative Base's antipathy toward him. But your average voter probably thought he was a radio DJ from the suburbs.

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by: colbycakes @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 12:57:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

madigan's move has had reverberations!

Giannoulias is clearing his field and Kirk is now clearing his.

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by: st paul sage @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 13:08:16 PM CDT

Not so fast

Giannoulias still faces Chris Kennedy in the primary, and could face Cheryle Jackson. Kennedy has never held political office, but he is RFK's son and I wouldn't count him out for that reason alone. The point is, the Democratic primary might not be a clear shot for Giannoulias just yet...

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by: NJCentrist @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 21:51:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Very true

I see the three heavy-hitters on our side being Giannoulias, Kennedy and Jackson. I'm pretty certain Jackson will run, but I'm less certain about Kennedy.

Interestingly, if that proves to be the case, it would mirror the dynamics of the 1992 and 2004 primaries. A prominent African American candidate (although Jackson has not held elected office like Obama and Moseley-Braun), a well-connected statewide officer (Giannoulias, Hynes, Dixon) and a wealthy businessman (Kennedy, Hull, and Hofield).

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by: corran horn @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 09:14:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

what makes Jackson a heavy?

She was a Blago flack. Has she ever been elected to anything?

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by: Carl Nyberg @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:22:36 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Giannoulias hit 60%

There's really no way Kirk can even make this a competitive race.

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by: skaje @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 14:04:48 PM CDT

This race will be more competitive than the 2004 and 2008 senate races

In both 2004 and 2008, the Republican got 27 and 29%, respectively.  Keyes and Sauerberg were warm bodies that the GOP establishment threw into the general election.  Kirk is a better candidate than both of these men.

Giannoulias should win, and I hope Alexi comes close to 60%.  I think it will be a bit closer...Kirk has held a Democratic seat by being a moderate, so a certain number of Democrats identify with him.  He's also the best candidate the GOP has to offer, and as long as he clears the GOP primary, he should make the race a "race to watch".

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 14:52:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Irrational exuberance

Unless Kirk flames out a la Mark Kennedy, this will probably be a single-digit race the entire 16 months of the campaign. Let's not underestimate this guy, considering he can get re-elected downticket from a 61-39 Obama victory.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 18:49:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Close Race

As a life long Illinois citizen, my two cents is that this is going to be a close race, with a lean in favor of Alexi. But I  think this is going to be a serious fight, a single digit victory.
Kirk actually increased his margin of victory to 8% against a 2nd time challenger in a year that Obama dominated his district. He has a very moderate image, he'll be very tough in the Chicago suburbs and should gain the support of traditional downstate Republicans.  Also, Alexi has some baggage from his State Treasurer job that you can expect Kirk will hit over and over again.
Still, Illinois is a Democratic state. And after all, this is the PRESIDENT's seat.  It's hard to imagine Pres. Obama stumping for Alexi in that last week and losing.  

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by: AC4508 @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 19:35:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not true

Kirk actually increased his margin of victory to 8% against a 2nd time challenger in a year that Obama dominated his district.

I've heard this "Kirk increased his margin" thing before, but that's simply not the case:

2008:

Mark Kirk: 52.6%
Dan Seals: 47.4%

2006:

Mark Kirk: 53.4%
Dan Seals: 46.6%

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by: James L. @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 22:20:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Alexi Giannoulias fundraising

I heard that Giannoulias raised 1.8 million in the first quarter.

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by: jmartin4s @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 14:06:44 PM CDT

Yeah

and only 670k in the 2nd. Kirk almost matched that for his re-election campaign with 580k  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 18:33:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But...

Alexi Giannoulias doesn`t accept any contributions from federally registered lobbyists or corporate PACs.Let me quote from Giannoulias site:

Alexi for Illinois Exploratory Committee does not accept contributions from federally registered lobbyists or corporate PACs.

https://alexiforillinois.ngpho...

Could you say the same about Mark Kirk?I would like to know that.  

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by: Greg @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 02:21:06 AM CDT

[ Parent ]