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IL-Sen: Kirk Waffles, Then Re-Waffles

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jul 10, 2009 at 4:35 PM EDT


According to Chris Cillizza, earlier today Rep. Mark Kirk suddenly dropped out of the Illinois Senate race as quick as he got in. Apparently he didn't take kindly to having to run in a primary and the withholding of his Illinois Republican House colleagues' support:

Kirk's decision, a blow to Senate Republicans' chances in Illinois, came in the wake of Burris' formal retirement this afternoon.

It also followed a meeting of the Illinois Republican congressional delegation on Thursday in which his colleagues refused to back Kirk in a primary against Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna due, in large part, to his vote in favor of President Barack Obama's climate change bill.

However, Cillizza posted a quick update, which indicates that the GOP may be forced to capitulate to Kirk's little tantrum:

[T]here is an ongoing effort now to convince him to re-think that decision, according to several sources close to the discussions. Pressure is now being brought to bear on Andy McKenna, who, according to knowledgeable sources, had told Republicans insiders that he would not run if Kirk got into the race.

We'll have to keep you posted.

UPDATE: Politico says McKenna will make his final decision this weekend about whether to stay in the race or not, and:

Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.) spoke with Kirk this afternoon and he told her he was still planning on running, according to Kathleen Lydon, Biggert's chief of staff.  Kirk had already scheduled July 20 as the date for his Senate kickoff announcement.

LATER UPDATE (James Hell): Kirk lays it all down pretty definitively to the Hotline here:

After much 'Will he? Or won't he?' speculation this afternoon about GOP Rep. Mark Kirk's desire to run for Senate in IL, Kirk said in an email to The Hotline that he was "still talking to Andy. We are trying to avoid a primary."

The "Andy" he references is IL GOP Chair Andy McKenna, who has made serious signals in recent days of his intention to run. When asked if this means that he may ultimately forgo a run, Kirk replied: "I will run if Andy does not."

RaceTracker: IL-Sen

Crisitunity :: IL-Sen: Kirk Waffles, Then Re-Waffles
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Phasers set to stunned!


Even If He Gets Back In...
This hardly helps. I've said before that having a process story right out the gate- and one that makes you look a little sketchy- is bad news. The only person I can think of who was successful after a very public mind-changing was Tom Udall, and even he just went from no to yes- so he could play if off like he got drafted.

If Kirk muscles McKenna out AND makes everyone smile for his climate change vote, that's not going to make IL Republicans very happy. They're...not a stable lot.


Even if McKennon gets muscled out
If his colleagues were that unwilling to support Kirk over a single vote, I would still expect someone to challenge Kirk from the right. Roskam, maybe?

[ Parent ]
will the Club for Growth show up?
Hopefully they'd support this right wing challenge you speculate about to bloody up Kirk for us.

[ Parent ]
Is it safe to assume
if Kirk runs statewide then IL-10 is ours?
and if Kirk stays in IL-10 then he gets reelected?
Republicans are already a small ineffective minority in the House, it's hard to argue to voters to throw any more of them out, especially Republicans who break ranks to vote in favor of environmental legislation.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

Cillizza also says
"Once Kirk signaled he was indeed running, however, McKenna reconsidered and made clear he would in fact stay in. Sources close to McKenna say he has no plans to drop out of the race."

And First Read:

"A Republican emails First Read that Kirk MIGHT be reconsidering. "Hearing now that it may not be 100% -- I still think he doesn't do it but apparently they might try to work something out.""

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

Amateur hour.


And Roll Call
"Kirk told Roll Call over the phone Friday that he was still discussing the race with McKenna going into the weekend and that a published Washington Post report that he was dropping out of the race was incorrect."

http://www.rollcall.com/news/3...


[ Parent ]
In other words
He never officially jumped in to begin with?

[ Parent ]
Cillizza seems to have the fullest explanation
It looks like Kirk hemmed and hawed for so long the GOP turned to plan B - McKenna. Madigan demurs so Kirk gets in. McKenna won't get out because of the climate vote. Kirk wants a clear field so gets out. The GOP are now scrambling to save their top-tier recruit. Kirk has backtracked and he and McKenna will work it out over the weekend. The NBC source suggests Kirk will stay out but isn't 100 percent certain.

[ Parent ]
First Some Caveats...
Note that this is a process story, on a Friday, about a race for only a statewide campaign...

But there are some really damaging memes here. Kirk looks like an entitlement baby, not wanting the seat unless it's handed to him, not wanting to get his hands dirty. And the nameless Republicans seem like flat-Earth gonzos who are willing to throw out the baby, its crib, all its toys, and their entire reproductive systems with the bathwater.

None of those close the door for Kirk and the Republicans, of course. But it's a pretty bad way to start your campaign.


[ Parent ]
Michael Bond
I have a feeling Michael Bond has the potential to defeat Kirk in 2010.

Verbal diarrhoea
"He could not keep that party chairmanship if he ran for the Senate," said Kathleen Lydon, Rep. Judy Biggert's chief of staff.

And? Biggert is the other faux-moderate House GOP'er in IL. How do we know it isn't her against Shimkus, Johnson, Manzullo and Roskam?


gah
Illinois is giving me about as bad of a headache as New York is. lol


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