Small correction

Jennifer Brunner's numbers against Ganley should be 35, not 25.

And yeah, these Ohio numbers and samples seem a little off in the context of everything. Obama has an only 49-44 approval rating? But if anything, we should remember that we have to fight for this seat, and that it won't be the next Santorum or Domenici kind of seat.

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by: KainIIIC @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 00:45:58 AM UTC

Thanks, fixed (eom)

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by: DavidNYC @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 03:10:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I Could Believe These Numbers

Not saying they're true, just saying I can see them.

Obama's numbers could be going down, because macroeconomics is a counterintuitive subject. Obama's picked the basically right way to get us out of this*- stabilize the financial sector, ramp up gov't spending to create jobs and get capital into the system- but it doesn't make sense to your average voter- running up debt in times of economic hardship, cleaning up the mess Wall Street made is the opposite of how most people would solve their OWN economic issues. So until they work, I can understand some heavy skepticism.

And if THAT'S the case, then of course other Dems are going to get their numbers tamped down a little, too.

By 2010, it might be working, and we'll be fine. Or the jury might still be out, and we'll have to rely on GOTV, organization, and the candidates- and we can certainly do it. If it fails, we'll be sunk, but we knew that already, didn't we?

*- As distinguished from "picked the right way to make sure this doesn't happen again"- because without massive financial re-regulation, the other shoe will always be a-hangin' in the air- and "doing enough", because I'm open to arguments that the stimulus wasn't enough.

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by: colbycakes @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 01:08:22 AM UTC

Too early to worry, it's the economy stupid......

No surprise a continuing bad economy is taking its toll on a party in power.  We're at 9.5% unemployment, which not only is bad but appears even worse simply because we got used to 4% under Clinton.  (No one remembers that 6.5% under Reagan was called "properity" at the time, and the Reagan folks insisted that was "full employment.")

But it's July 2009, not July 2010.

I've always thought the economy would rebound ENOUGH by late summer 2010 that the environment will revert to "neutral," and fundamentals will decide the races.

I still think that.

We're in power, we have a lot of major agenda in front of us, and with a decent health care reform law, a decent carbon emissions control law, and a reviving economy, we're set.  I just hope our Congress and President don't make the perfect the enemy of the good whereby our own more doctrinaire liberals sabotage our efforts.  Do whatever it takes to get 60 Senators, even if that means giving up sometimes on Ben Nelson and Landrieu in order to make a deal with Snowe and Collins.  The public will be supportive, we can fix imperfections later, and the country is better off than it was.

Time is on our side.

And if we just don't get stuff done and the economy stays in the tank, well we'll have to pay a price, but we'll still hold both chambers.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 01:22:25 AM UTC

All these Ohio polls have way too many

Undecided to tell us much of anything. However when everything shakes out I continue to believe this should be a win.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 01:23:55 AM UTC

Agreed

on the undecideds.  With such a high proportion noncommittal, there isn't much to see here.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 01:56:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A small personal note regarding the economy

I had been out of work since the election ended (Nov. 5 was the end for me).

I start grad school this fall and as of yesterday got hired for an on campus job. Only one called my back of over fifteen I applied for (including a job at the local Democratic party in Denton, TX).

So, from where I am standing in Texas things are starting to get better.

All I need is access to the college's gym, and I'm golden. :-)

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 01:36:54 AM UTC

I'm not worried.

No way in hell Bush's free trade guy gets elected in Ohio of all places.

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by: Kanamit @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 01:38:59 AM UTC

Ohio Election

The election does not take place until November 2010.  Polls that take place before the primaries are useless. The voters are not even paying attention.  Too much can and will happen between now and the election. The main things are the economy and health care.  So ease up on the panic.

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by: jhiestand @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 02:05:14 AM UTC

Agreed

While early polls like this can be interesting and keep junkies like us occupied, they really aren't that useful when we're 10-or-so months away from the primary and over a year before the actual election.

As 2008 (heck even 2006 to a degree) showed us, early polls like this mean almost nothing.

I will say that it's good that Q polled the primary, even if it told us relatively little.

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by: corran horn @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 18:45:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]