Google Ads


Site Stats

NM-Gov: Denish Wallops Wilson, Pearce

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jun 19, 2009 at 3:53 PM EDT


Harstad Strategic Research for the DGA (5/31-6/4, likely voters):

Diane Denish (D): 57
Heather Wilson (R): 35
Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 57
Steve Pearce (R): 35
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4%)

As far as we know, no one has polled the New Mexico governor's race until now... or even paid much attention to the race. That's because, with the current field, this open seat is looking like, if not a slam dunk, then at least a poorly contested lay-up for Team Blue. Not only is there New Mexico's big shift to the left in the 2008 election, but also a huge disparity in recruitment. Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has been the long-time heir apparent for the Dems (although state Senate majority leader Michael Sanchez is looking at the race), while all the GOP has cobbled together is official candidate National Guard Brig. Gen. Greg Zanetti, along with two explorers: state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones and Allen Weh, former state party chair best known for his supporting role in the U.S. Attorney scandal.

Still, the possibility has loomed in the distance that the GOP might field a higher-profile candidate: either one of the two former Reps., Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce, who basically destroyed each other en route to Tom Udall's easy 2008 Senate victory. If this internal poll for the DGA is even remotely close to reality, then there's not much of a race here even if Wilson or Pearce show up, as both of them lose 57-35. Denish even leads Wilson 53-40 in NM-01, Wilson's base of operations for over a decade as she kept America safe from stray nipples. Pearce has also been weighing a run to get back his old seat in NM-02; if this poll is any indication, that'd be a better use of his time. (H/t Campaign Diaries.)

RaceTracker: NM-Gov

Crisitunity :: NM-Gov: Denish Wallops Wilson, Pearce
Tags: , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Redistricting
Any chance New Mexico gains a seat in redistricting?

None of the projections predict it


[ Parent ]
NM will probably not have a close election for a good while
Democrats have just absolutely taken over here. It's really incredible Kerry lost the state in 2004 considering how strong the state leans Democratic now but it's been one of our more impressive flips percentage wise and down ballot wise as well.  

Vote suppression
I've read that the 2004 election was "won" by Bush in NM through massive trashing (literally) of votes by poor and Latino people, etc. But the fact that it was such a big margin this time proves your point. Under the current U.S. system, there are margins beyond which it is very difficult to hold back a genuine victory.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Jeez that's terrible
But not surprising considering FL in 2000, NH and GA in 2002, OH in 2004, etc.  

[ Parent ]
Palast
Greg Palast covers the details and dimensions of vote-suppression by barriers to registration, various methods to arbitrarily and illegally trash registration (that's what the firings of the Federal prosecutors were about: The ones who wouldn't engage in illegal purging and frivolous prosecution of "fraudulent" voting were fired), and arbitrarily requiring voters most likely to be Democratic (poor, Hispanic, black, etc.) to vote by provisional ballots, which are trashed in large numbers. 2000 was stolen and so, he argues convincingly, was 2004 - in several states. There's a brief exposition in Wikipedia "Greg Palast". I was very much afraid they'd steal the election again in 2008, and it's imperative for a new Voting Rights Law with teeth to be passed and signed, or these kinds of shenanigans will continue to be practiced.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox