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VA-Gov Predictions Contest: A Winner Is You!

by: DavidNYC

Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 11:38 PM EDT


First off, as always, thanks to everyone who participated in the Swing State Project's VA-Gov Dem primary predictions contest. Fifty-seven folks submitted guesses, and what's particularly awesome is that the skunkworks down at SSP Labs shows we have a flat-out tie for first place! Congratulations to RedefiningForm and stevenaxelrod, who both had winning scores of just four points - you each get half a loaf! Just kidding... send me an email and a super-mega-delicious Green's babka will be on its way to each of you shortly.

The actual final results were Deeds 50, McAuliffe 26, Moran 24. For the record, here were the winning guesses, along with the average for all of SSP:

RedefiningForm:
Deeds: 48
McAuliffe: 26
Moran: 26

stevenaxelrod:
Deeds: 48
McAuliffe: 27
Moran: 25

SSP Median
Deeds: 41.1
McAuliffe: 31.7
Moran: 26.7

If you want to see exactly how you did, please click here. If you aren't going to be the recipient of tasty babka, please try again next time (or treat yourself!). Thanks again to all, and congrats once more to the winners!

DavidNYC :: VA-Gov Predictions Contest: A Winner Is You!
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My hedge, that Deeds might make it to 50%, was
closer than my guess. I didn't really believe that all of the undecideds would break to him, but it came pretty close to that.

Congrats to the winners.  


I tend to be too conservative in my predictions
it's my quasi-Jewish perpetual "knock on wood" superstition about life. In the past it served my batting average well (I knew Schwarzenegger would win in 2003, Bush in 2004, etc.), but since good candidates started occasionally winning again circa 2005, I've had trouble adjusting my pessimisometer. Of course, I knew in my heart that Obama would be the next President as soon as he made it past the Iowa caucus, but I was working on that campaign.

Congrats to RF and SA for winning the babka. What'll the prize be next time? (And when is the next time? Will we be predicting margins for the Chu-Chu race in CA-32?)

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.


The prize next time?
Babka.

And the time after that?

Babka.

Hey, James, do you know what the prize will be three contests from now?

James says, "Babka."


[ Parent ]
Thanks, Nathaniel90.
And I want to thank all the little people who made this possible.

My next prediction is Chu, Judy.

Cheers,

SA


[ Parent ]
I know exactly what you mean
It's tough realizing that you're on the winning team all of a sudden.

And see, I literally couldn't even type that without knocking on wood.

Male, 23, DC-At Large


[ Parent ]
Is there a booby prize? Something for shooting the moon?
Just wondering.

If you're ever in New York
I'll treat you to a slice on the house. :)

[ Parent ]
Damn i'm getting better at this.
Not there yet you just wait campaign 2010 when I call some obscure house race I know nothing about. And damn thats not a bad prize for a primary I would have been excited for a 10% discount at bed bath and beyond (and i've never been there).  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

This is a surprise..
Don't be taken in by the certainty of my initial post, I'm overjoyed and pleasantly surprised at Deeds' strength regardless of geography. Seriously, winning VA-8? Wow.

I can't accept the babka, as much as I'd like to taste the hype - I don't think it'd stand up very well on a cross-ocean plane ride all the way here to Singapore. It's a good opportunity to thank James, DavidNYC, Cristiunity and the ocean of brilliant contributors for allowing me to keep track of the goings-on back home, SSP's now my first port of call every morning without fail, and reading through the comments has become a welcome ritual.

Go Deeds! We've come too far to let VA's rapid blueing stop at a moment like this.


Oh, I think one from Green's will
Though they won't ship overseas, I can buy one myself and ship it directly to you. Seriously - you earned it! Shoot me an email if you'd like me to give it a go (and as long as it's not insaaanely expensive to ship).

And thank you for the very kind words! Glad to know we're keeping citizens all over the world in the loop.


[ Parent ]
International shipping is pretty pricey these days
I know I'm not claiming the babka I think I won for the 2008 predictions for a couple of years yet.

[ Parent ]
I'd love to treat myself
Any idea as to where one might find a tasty Babka in the DC area?

Male, 23, DC-At Large

I always recommend Green's
Brookville Supermarket in Cleveland Park sells them.

[ Parent ]
Are those medians or means?
The decimal points makes me think that they're means.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08


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