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VA-Gov: Prediction Contest

by: DavidNYC

Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 10:28 AM EDT


Alright, folks. It's that time. List your predictions for today's Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia in comments. The person with the the smallest aggregate deviation from the correct totals for each candidate just might earn a babka.
DavidNYC :: VA-Gov: Prediction Contest
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VA-Gov: Prediction Contest | 83 comments
Deeds 45%, T-Mac 28%, Moran 27%
However, I leave open the possibility that Moran barely breaks 20% and Deeds gets to 50%.
Deeds by a clear margin
I'll go with:

Deeds       44%
McAuliffe   28%
Moran       23%  

I'll probably be way off
Deeds 45%, Moran 30%, McAuliffe 25%.
i've been sucking at these lately...
Deeds       41%
McAuliffe   31%
Moran       23%
WAG
Deeds 38
McAuliffe 28
Moran 24
I can't count
Deeds  41
McAuliffe  31
Moran  27
[ Parent ]
I really dont wanna mess with the universe here
what was the line in West Wing? Im gonna have to go outside, turn around 3 times and spit?  Oh what the hell, lets do this thing.  Im gonna say Mac's strong turnout operation and low turnout overall will get Mac closer than the polling suggests but not much more.

Deeds: 41.3%    TMac: 33.4%    Moran: 25.2%

Deeds, but
Since I suspect that a lot of his new-found support is pretty soft and because turnout in VA traditionally blows, not by the blowout that's been projected.
Deeds 37
McAuliffe 33
Moran 30

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
Deeds-45,Moran-28,McAuliffe-27

Oh wait, that's exactly the same as andgarden's prediction.
I'll change it a bit... um, Deeds-45, Moran-26,McAuliffe-29
[ Parent ]
Deeds 38%, McAuliffe 34%, Moran 27%
Mickey Mouse/other write-ins get the remainder.

So yes, I'm expecting it to be closer than most folks around here...not because I have any insider information (I'm about 475 miles from Richmond), but because I have a sense that McAuliffe's machine should not be taken lightly. Still, it's hard to imagine him winning with the last few polls showing Deeds pulling away.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

I CAN HAZ BABKA?
Deeds 41 McCauliffe 34 Moran 25

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
And like I said before...
I'm superstitious about primaries in which the candidate I like most comes out of nowhere into a commanding lead overnight. No, I may never fully recover from New Hampshire.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
Prediction
Deeds - 52
McAuliffe - 28
Moran - 20
Deeds 48, McAuliffe 26, Moran 26
This'll be over soon after the counting starts.
Fearless!
McAuliffe 38
Deeds 37
Moran 25
Barf
You wish! :P
[ Parent ]
I have FAITH.

[ Parent ]
A blast from the past
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

NY-20: Predictions Thread

Tedisco wins a heartbreaker.
Tedisco (R) 51.77%
Murphy (D) 48.23%

We'll all be depressed tomorrow morning.

 
[ Parent ]
Closer than anyone thinks
Hope I'm wrong

Deeds - 37%
McAuliffe - 35%
Moran - 28%

Male, 23, DC-At Large

agreed


20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
[ Parent ]
Deeds Wins! :p
Deeds - 39
Moran - 32
McAuliffe - 29
k
41.7% Deeds
26.3%McAufilie
32% Moran

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
you guys need to learn
that babka sucks, lol.

I want baklava.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Might as well have said
James, David and Crisit are all stupid idiots and I should get banned.
[ Parent ]
lol,
not liking babka is a bannable offense? :P

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I said I disliked Babka once...
Then James and Crisitunity, both in drunken stupors, came to my door armed with tazers. I still haven't recovered :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
What you didn't know about that incident
Is that I ordered them to get drunk and then tase you. I find a little alcohol makes the whole tasing process more interesting.
[ Parent ]
Heh
Alcohol tends to make a lot of things more interesting, and as Homer Simpson says: "...Alcohol, the cause of and solution to all of life's problems!"

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Homer also once said:
"Beer, there's a temporary solution!"
[ Parent ]
BAN. n/t

[ Parent ]
All Hit 30
Given how low turnout is likely to be, who knows? But if you want a guess:

Deeds 38, Moran 32, T-Mac 30.

At this point I'm more curious about the race for Lt. Gov.

Lt. Gov
is not going to be close. Jody Wagner was up 41-12 against Mike Signer in PPP's last poll.
[ Parent ]
Deeds mops the floor
Deeds 54
T-Mac 27
Moran 19

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
Damn you, Marcus, you stole my prediction!......
Not exactly, but I thought I'd be the only one with Deeds winning an outright majority.

Mine has been and remains:  Deeds 51; TMac 31; Moran 18.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I like your style

[ Parent ]
From a Virginian
Creigh Deeds- 39%
Brian Moran- 31%
Terry McAuliffe- 30%
I Had The Same Prediction Since Friday...
But news of inclement weather in NoVa is going to make me tweak it.

Deeds 44, McAuliffe 30, Moran 25, Others/Write-Ins 1

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

I prob won't win...
But I'll say

Deeds 36%

Moran 32%

Tmac 32%

Deeds has Will of the Voters, but No Turnout Device
So . . .

Deeds - 38%
Moran - 31.5%
T-Mac - 30.5%

Now I can get my free sample of something I have never even heard of before this website. And no, I have not tried it.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

McAuliffe will make it close but fall short
Deeds: 39
McAuliffe: 38
Moran: 23
i actually tried a chocolate babka
at the breadsmith in st paul recently - and i didn't like it that much, not as much as i like a fairly standard chocolate croissant.  but i still want to win.

deeds 40, t-mac 35, moran 24, other 1

and i point out my 10/31 '08 prediction (you can look it up, baby):

And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Franken-43 v. Coleman-42 v. Barkley-15

 

Try Green's
It will change your world.
[ Parent ]
your Minnesota prediction makes me LOL
because under any scenario, the numbers will break down exactly like that.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
[ Parent ]
VA
Deeds 40%
McAuliffe 32%
Moran 28%

29/D/Male/NY-01
Horserace Plus Turnout
I'm going to say, the positive press that Deeds is getting (I'm assuming, right? A quick glance at Google News makes it seem like that) causes a fair number of Moran voters to switch in the booth, but Moran's got a strong enough field team that he doesn't collapse. MacAuliffe still has the cash and the turn-out operation, so he makes a strong showing. Deeds rides his momentum and the Anybody But Terry feeling.

Or something like that.

Deeds - 39.5%
MacAuliffe - 36.0%
Moran - 24.5%

And, I'll go one step further:

(D) Primary Turnout - 135,000

Looks like I'm the only one with some faith...
I'll probably lose but here U go:

Moran:38
Deeds:37
T-Mac:25

Here's mine
Deeds: 40
T-Mac: 37
Moran: 23

I just think Moran blew a race he could have won and won't make a dent outside of NoVA.  Split that with McAuliffe and this is what ya get...unless NoVA turns out huge.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

I'm going to cop-out here...
...and take the Pollster average and split (most) of the undecideds:

Deeds:40.6 %
Moran: 30.5%
McAuliffe: 28.1%
Other: 0.8%

Oops!
Switch Moran and McAuliffe!

Deeds:40.6 %
McAuliffe: 30.5%
Moran: 28.1%
Other: 0.8%

[ Parent ]
Moran Wins
Out of left field, but I'm guessing Moran --

35% Moran
33% Deeds
31% McAuliff

I think McAuliffe will still get his votes out, but not enough...
Deeds 39
McAuliffe 35
Moran 26
Deeds 43 T-Mac 35 Moran 20 (rest is write-in, etc.)
NoVA is getting hammered by severe storms in the morning and evening, that pretty much kills Moran's chances. Deeds has the momentum going in and there's nothing to suggest that T-Mac can stop it.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

No clue on percentages, but here goes...
Deeds - 40
T-Mac - 32
Moran - 27
Misc/Write In - 1
Just to be able to finally taste babka
Deeds 44 T-Mac 33 Moran 23. I just hope he can hold the statehouse in November.
My Prediction
Deeds--35
McAuliffe--35
Moran--29
Misc--1

Miscellaneous is surging in this contest!

Moran's support collapses...
Deeds 45%
Terry 32%
Moran 23%
Deeds, but by not as much as you'd think
Deeds: 37%
McAuliffe: 35%
Moran: 28%
Deeds by double digits
Deeds 43%
T-Mac 31%
Moran 26%

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
Completely guessing
Deeds 39
McAulliffe 31
Moran 30
Deeds 48, McAuliffe 27, Moran 25
Just another wild guess from far away.
Who will win the D lt gov primary?

Unfortunately
Probably Wagner. I'd guess 56-44 or something like that.  
[ Parent ]
Deeds by 15
Deeds 44
Moran  29
The T-Mac Attack 27
tight
Deeds 36
McA  34
Moran 30
Might is enough for me
Deeds 38
TMac 34
Moran 28

I'll probably be way off with this, but...
Deeds 40%
TMac 35%
Moran 25%

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Deeds Surge
DEEDS 46%
MORAN 21%
TERRY 33%
Deeds 45
McAuliffe 30
Moran 25
wild guesses
Deeds: 38
TM: 34
Moran: 28
Hardly anyone picking T-mac so why not
McAuliffe - 39
Deeds - 37
Moran - 24
bah
When do the polls close? And will SSP be live-bloggin, or do I have to do all the work on my own... I'm on summer break dammmit!

Deeds: 37
TMac: 33
Moran: 30

Polls close at 7:00pm local
And of course we'll be liveblogging. :)
[ Parent ]
yay!
I <3 SSP!
[ Parent ]
Me too!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
:-)
Deeds 36
McAuliffe 34
Moran 30
Late Prediction
Deeds: 43
McAuliffe: 32
Moran: 25
My full and complete predictions:
A little late to remind you all, but there are no write-ins allowed in Virginia primaries, so your numbers should add up to 100.

Governor:

Creigh Deeds - 37.8
Terry McAuliffe - 31.9
Brian Moran - 30.3

Lt. Governor:

Jody Wagner - 68
Mike Signer - 30
Jon Bowerbank - 2

Democratic House primary winners:

11th: Onzlee Ware
25th: Greg Marrow
35th: Mark Keam
38th: Bob Hull
47th: Adam Parkhomenko
52nd: Luke Torian
69th: Carlos Brown
80th: Matthew James
90th: Algie Howell

Republican House primary winners:

17th: Chris Head
23rd: Scott Garrett
55th: John Cox

Deeds
With big T-storms rolling through all day, would hate to be polling this race. TO already low and quirked by weather.

Most amusing was driving during PM rush hour and hearing Moran clip talking about how he is too liberal to be governor of VA. Might want to wait until day after election to wave the white flag.

Anyway,

Deeds          45
Terry Mac      39
Moran          16
 

Allright i'll slip mine in here 6:47
Deeds 45
Moran 28
T-Mac 27

It's hot as hell and has been raining in NOVA all week so i'm assuming Deeds is going to do well with Southern VA turnout and weather being a little better. I'm in DC for college for the year :P.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

Deeds, but no majority
Deeds - 40.5%
Moran - 29%
McAuliffe - 30.5%
A Lesser Babka? I Think Not!
Deeds 39%
TMac  32%
Moran 29%
Contest closed. (eom)

VA-Gov: Prediction Contest | 83 comments

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