Strategic Vision (R) (5/29-31, likely voters, 2/6-8 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 29 (26)
Charlie Crist (R): 59 (60)Kendrick Meek (D): 30 (24)
Marco Rubio (R): 31 (26)
(MoE: ±2.8%)Charlie Crist (R): 59 (54)
Marco Rubio (R): 22 (4)
Other: NA (33)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Alex Sink (D): 39
Bill McCollum (R): 41Alex Sink (D): 40
Paula Dockery (R): 34
(MoE: ±2.8%)Bill McCollum (R): 44
Paula Dockery (R): 28
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Republican polling firm Strategic Vision takes a look at both the Senate and Governor’s races in Florida. They also polled the Senate race in February, including a Crist/Meek matchup back when the notion of Charlie Crist actually switching over to Senate seemed rather fanciful. However, the numbers haven’t really budged much since then, even though the field has started to solidify.
Rep. Kendrick Meek has made up a few points on Crist, but is still trailing Crist by 30, looking pretty insurmountable at this point. On the other hand, Meek vs. former state House speaker Marco Rubio is a dead heat (although the undecideds on that race are still tremendously high). In the GOP primary, Rubio has shot up, but not at Crist’s expense. Instead, Rubio seems to have cornered most of the former “Other” vote, as the previous poll included Reps. Vern Buchanan and Connie Mack, and movement conservative voters seem to have dutifully gravitated to Rubio now that he’s the right-wing’s horse in the race. Rubio can expect to further improve as he gets better-known, but with Crist near 60%, that’s an incredibly steep hill to climb.
There aren’t any trendlines on the governor’s race (which only recently became clear it would be CFO Alex Sink vs. AG Bill McCollum), but the 2-point lead for McCollum is very consistent with previous Sink/McCollum matchups, going all the way back to when it was assumed these two would be squaring off for the Senate instead. Strategic Vision also polls state Senator Paula Dockery, who’s been making some noise this week about running in the primary that the state GOP thought they’d already cleared. Dockery doesn’t turn out to be much of a factor right now, losing badly in the primary against McCollum and trailing Sink by 6 in the general, although her position might improve as her name recognition improves outside the I-4 corridor.
SV has a moderately strong Republican lean as I recall from reading 538. So, this poll is not bad at all for Sink.
Anyone know what percentage of the electorate has no idea who Meek and Rubio are?
Sink and McCollum would also be interesting to know.
If the primary is low turnout, that probably favor’s Rubio, especially if he improves his standing, which he has plenty of time to do. Crist also has gotten a lot of bad press lately on his handling of the state’s economy, that will come back to bite him as it sinks in. It’s still early, and a lot can happen in this one, so let’s avoid calling Crist senator-elect just yet.
Not liking the starting point at all for Sink/McCollum.
While the Dems. for once keep there act together and nominate Sink/Meek without a nuclear primary. I’d say a good amount of the blame for losing the 2006 governors race goes on how ugly the Davis/Smith Democratic primary got. And even though Crist was a popular statewide offical facing a congressman who he outspent more then 2-1 he still only won 52-45. So if the GOP makes the same mistake we made in 2006 with the Senate and Governors races we may end up on the winning side in Florida much like 08.
Sink has only been elected in Florida all of once, whereas McCollum has been in Florida politics for over two decades and has launched (and lost) multiple statewide bids. He’s a much more known quantity than Sink and has less room to grow whereas Sink can still introduce herself to scores of voters that don’t pay attention to the CFO elections. I am concerned about Meek but hopefully as his name ID improves so till will his polling.
Just how ideological are Florida GOP’ers though? Didn’t McCain pretty handidly win the presidential primary down there last time? And didn’t a lot of them support Democrats the past two cycles (Ron Klein, Susanne Kosmas, Alan Grayson)? I wonder if this will be a referendum not so much the “soul of the GOP” as movement conservatives make it to be, but rather if most Florida GOP’ers are moving towards the center with only a few pockets of hard-liners throughout the state. Any Floridians with knowledge on this?