IMHO, FL is the most important Senate election in 2010

followed closely by OH and MO in that order. I'm saying this because Obama's win in FL was primarily driven by his money advantage in an otherwise quitessentially purple state with a non-dormant black vote. Numberswise, FL is very essential to Dem electoral vote and House prospects because of population growth, but not really for the Senate. Nonetheless, I think the Democrats would be well advised to recruit the strongest and best nominee to take this seat and right now, though it's very early, the current crop don't appear very promising.

I actually think Alex Sink would not have been as strong in the long run and being a Dem woman, her chances would be harder (see my comment a while back about prospects of female dem office seekers). As per lack of statewide name recognition, at this stage this is not an insurmountable problem (when Lawton Chiles ran for Gov, nobody knew him until the trekked the whole state). Both Allen Boyd and Kendrick Meek suffer from a mirror image problem; their districts are not as representative of the state as a whole nor are they representative of electable Dems. Boyd is too conservative and if he wins, he will suffer defections on the left; Meek, while ambitious, is too liberal and will suffer defections on the right. They may also have problem raising money, especially Boyd, who would have to do a complete 180 on issues to get money from Dem fundraising groups. With a 59 seat advantage sans the FL seat, he would not be considered essential to Democrat's chances. Is there a younger Bill Nelson type from the I-4 corridor or Palm Beach area?

On the GOP side, it may come down to McCollum v Mack (hard right vs. center-right). I would put my money on Mack but since he hasn't run statewide before, we don't know how he will do. McCollum is too right wing for post-2008 FL (heck he was too right wing for pre-2008 post-1994 FL too). However, he's been wanting to get back to Washington on a larger scale than representing his old Orlando seat, which is now held by Democrat Alan Grayson. Mack won't have problem raising money and with a moderate and popular Crist running for relection in 2010, both McCollum and Mack would benefit though Mack is probably closer to Crist than McCollum is. As per Rubio, his chances of winning the nomination improve without McCollum or Mack running.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

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by: Shinigami @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 18:32:15 PM UTC

Jim Davis?

He seems sort of in the Bill Nelson mold, and he'll have an advantage in name recognition because of his run for Governor.
On the negative side, he did lose in a Democratic wave year, but overall he might be a good candidate.

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by: fatcathobbes @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 18:45:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Isn't Davis now a DC lawyer/lobbyist?

would he want to come back to FL when he could well settled financially? On another note, I must say that if I could be a US Senator from any state, Florida would be it...its just such a great place to visit and unwind after spending long hours in dreary Washington DC.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

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by: Shinigami @ Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 04:37:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I feel that way about California too!

Hop on the plane for 5-6 hours, and then kick back on the beach or a serene mountain setting.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 06:45:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But we have SWAMPS!

Take that!

(Yes, I'm counting myself as a Floridian.)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 09:14:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We got mountains!

And where else can you go skiing and surfing in the same day!

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 19:36:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Parents

Mack's father was a US Senator.  His grandfather was manager and owner of the A's and his great grandfather was manager and owner of the A's for 50 years and a Hall of Famer.  There is a lot of name recognition for him.  McCollum, otoh, was tied up with the Republican persecution of Bill Clinton and was a right wing fool for decades.

Meek's mother was the long time congress woman from her district.

Both Mack and Meek benefit from a familiar name, Mack nore so.  That's why he's in the 20s already.  Mack's wife, Mary Bono Mack, is also a US House member (California) and the widow of Sonny.  Connie represented the wealthy Naples area;  Mary represents Palm Springs.  That's a fund-raising edge, for sure.  A Mack nomination could result in his wife ditching her seat to campaign full time for her husband.  And that is a competitive seat.

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 19:16:47 PM UTC

Yeah, I was wondering

if there was some confusion over which Connie Mack people think is running, i.e. people thinking it's III, the one that many people remember as senator during the 90s. Not to belabor the stereotype that Florida is full of confused elderly voters, but you get the idea.

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by: Crisitunity @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 19:25:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

oh goodness.

In D&D parlance: What's the DC (difficulty class) of the following:
* distinguishing between Connie Mack III and Connie Mack IV (probably uses the Knowledge: Local or Knowledge: Politics skill)
* distinguishing between "Mack" and "Meek" (spot check?)
* distinguishing between the left and right sides of the ballot (spot check, again?)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 20:35:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Awesome

Mack and McCollum can be beat with a solid candidate (not Meek).  Rubio is the only name on their side that scares me, and as the poll shows he will have a lot of work to do to win a republican primary.

Klein is still my #1 choice after Sink who apparently isn't going to run.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 19:21:18 PM UTC

Klein

Yeah I would favor him too and I think Gelber might be all right if gets his name recognition up.

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by: Progressive America @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 20:10:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And with Klein

Money is no problem.  The guy raises ungodly amounts of cash.  I believe he raised and spent well over $4 million in 2006 when he defeated longtime congressman Clay Shaw in FL-22.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 20:13:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As long as they don't have someone who appeals to Hispanics...

We need to win those around 2-1 for Florida to flip.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 21:14:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

meek or klein

seem likely the likely ones right now.  with the obscene FL gerrymanders and obscene underrepresentation (40 state senators for a state the size of FL?!), we have very few legislators to choose from.

meek is an interesting case.  i do hold it against him that his mother gave him her seat.  i think dynastism makes sense in some cases (evan bayh, jim matheson, bob casey) namely when a seat is in a reublican leaning district and the residual good will left by the elder helps the younger democrat win.  but meek's was an ugly handoff - like they thought it was a family possession to be passed on to the younger, and there was never any danger that this seat wouldn't be democratic.

nonetheless, he looks like an impressive candidate.  contrary to the poster above, meek has been so centrist that it has annoyed left-wing posters here and elsewhere because his district is so left-wing.  he has recruited some top organizing talent from the Obama team and he has a law-enforcement background - often critical for democrats running in red or purple places.  and it's clear that he will run on an obama-style campaign.  not bending over backwards to please the base and running very seriously and very early to win the general election.

klein looks very impressive and represents a true swing district, but that district does then open up and it could be hard to protect.

is there anybody we should be looking for?

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by: st paul sage @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 19:33:31 PM UTC

I was thinking the same thing regarding the senate

The New York State Senate is 62 seats and it's definitely not big enough

New York is about the same size as Florida.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 20:37:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA also only has 40

Which means the State Senate districts are noticeably larger than Congressional districts.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 21:12:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Texas too, right?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 21:14:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yup

32 congress, 31 state senate. Remember, it will become 36 congress in 2012.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 21:57:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not too useful without cross-tabs

Hell, the high percentage of don't knows mostly show that any candidate can win if they can get enough dedicated support.

I figure Boyd doesn't really have a way out of a competitive primary unless the vote is split amongst three other candidates. He can get the north Florida conservative vote, but he's got no real way to appeal to southern Florida (especially after dicking around on social security) and the rapidly blueing parts of central Florida don't seem likely to go for a 1980s Florida Democrat.

I'm interested to see where Meek draws his support from. If it's being the black candidate, then that's a base he can build upon. If it's for being a bit DLC whilst still young and black, he has problems. He'll find it difficult to consolidate the black vote without annoying the other end of his coalition. It all depends how loyal opinion-leaders in the black community will be towards his candidacy.

To me Klein and Gelber are the interesting ones. They have a base in the Miami area, can probably appeal in central Florida and are more likely to have a decent amount of activist appeal. If one of them can monopolise the territory of the other first, he's liable to get the nomination.

That said, I wouldn't count out a surprise Alan Grayson run. The man has ambition, he tends to speak his mind, he has fundraising chops and sizeable cash reserves and he's happy to run uphill campaigns. I couldn't see him winning a majority primary victory, but if the other candidates are lacklustre and he gets in relatively promptly, I could see him winning in a low-turnout primary with a plurality.

As for the Republicans, I don't know. Rubio can probably get the Cuban vote, and if he gets Jeb's networt he could be quite formidable, but I don't know what his ceiling is. Mack's certainly viable as a dynasty candidate, but I don't know what he could really run on. Allan Bense seems like the Republican equivalent of Gelber, but if he declined to primary Harris in the 2006 Senate race, he's either a very smart political observer or far too cowardly to get in to the race.

I hadn't heard any news about Buchanan running, but there's enough dirt on the man that he'd have to face a volley of negative ads. Plus the NRCC wouldn't want an open seat in FL-13. Finally, I can't see McCollum making a go of it based on these numbers. Let's be honest, he's a dickhead with a high profile and several statewide primary losses to his name. If he's at 22% now, his ceiling is probably below 40%, and since most of these candidates won't run, he's not liable to win it.

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by: Englishlefty @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 19:45:12 PM UTC

"If it's being the black candidate, then that's a base he can build upon."

meek is going to run as a black candidate whether he wants to or not - like obama.  and he doesn't need to do anything special to win and maintain historic African American support - like obama.  

i tend to think alex sink would be the safer candidate.  she, like bill nelson, held a statewide lower office and people were already comfortable with her.

but without a heavyweight like jeb, it seems clear that a number of candidates can win.  obama laid out a template for organizing the state regionally and ethnically.

the arguments against meek seem similar in some ways to the arguments against obama last year.  "yeah sure he's a talented, well-spoken man, but it's a little early to think we could a elect a black president..."

so substantively, what is wrong and what is right with kendrick meek?

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by: st paul sage @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 21:13:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What is wrong

He votes like he's in a D+5 district, when it's actually D+35. He's a congresswoman's son.

Those aren't major problems if he wants to run statewide. His big disadvantage there will be lack of experience running a competitive campaign.

I'm not enthusiastic about him anyway (I'm only really interested in Senate candidates who will be voices for major change), I just think it's easier for him to expand from the black community into moderate/new Democrats than it is for him to start well amongst the latter group yet prevent anybody else securing the support of a proportion of the black community.

Meek isn't Obama. The Senate is not the presidency. There will be less of an argument for support based on history, and I therefore don't think he can absolutely rely upon 80%+ black support. Although then again, I don't know who would be able to make a play for the black vote.

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by: Englishlefty @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 22:15:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

well you have every right to support whomever you wish

but are you saying that he should vote like he's in a D35 district (thereby making him unelectable statewide in FL)?  voting the way he does makes him electable statewide.  and i think about another obama echo in this race. a black man who talks a lot of about poverty, urban issues, lack of education/access for people or votes D35 will be ignored as a "black" candidate talking about "black" issues and not a serious aspirant for the job.  john edwards and robert kennedy could embrace these platforms and be taken seriously.  i doubt that obama could have.

and no, he's not obama, but there's a lot of history. there's only one African-American in the Senate - and he's a joke (Roland Burris) and won't be around after 2010 so while it's less of an argument than Obama's, it is a big historical argument.  secondly i suspect AAs in FL vote at least 90% for democrats in general so to suggest that a prominant African American congressman would get less than 95% seems completely illogical.

but i appreciate you putting your passions on the table "only really interested in Senate candidates who will be voices for major change."  i'm most interested in senate candidates that can turn red ultraconservative seats into moderately blue ones.

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by: st paul sage @ Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 18:13:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the way to go is Klein

if he can be convinced to run.  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 20:37:37 PM UTC