This is beginning to look like the Iowa caucuses

After reallocation of support.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 16:55:33 PM CDT

It is like the Iowa Caucuses

in that the nomination will be decided by a microscopically small percentage of the electorate.

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by: davybaby @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 22:05:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Polls would influence my voting

I like Creigh but figured he never had a chance so I never considered voting for him (If I was a Virginia voter) and would have voted for Terry.

Now that it is ready to go and Deeds looks like he can win, I'd change my vote from Terry to Creigh.

Once again, anyone but Moran is my choice.

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by: trowaman @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 16:59:18 PM CDT

What's your beef with Moran

is it cuz his brother punched Colbert in the face?

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by: johnnythebandit @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 17:59:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh no

It's all style. He comes across to me as just a guy in a suit with no real specific goals. I don't really see a distinct line defining who he is. Terry is a suit but you know what he wants to do (and dammit, his positive attitude works when he is the candidate). I really didn't want to like Terry after meeting him a year ago and got the impression he was a sleezeball, but his PR has been good.

I'm also not a fan of candidates resigning to run for higher office, makes me wonder how well they can multi-task on the job.

That and his primary campaign has not been a very well run operation, IMO, ranging from his video or Terry's ridiculous amount of signs at Shad-Planking turning into an attack ad to him giving out his cell phone # in last night's forum.

I feel like Moran is the "It's my turn to run" candidate.

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by: trowaman @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 18:30:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Kind of the same

If I had been a VA voter, I would have picked Deeds from the start - he'd be the most electable and the best option to keep the seat, and that matters a lot to me. There was a short period when I genuinely thought Terry was changing minds around the state and could possibly get elected, but that has all but disappeared, and I certainly don't like the Moran tactics. So perhaps I'm part of the "Anyone named Deeds" camp.

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by: KainIIIC @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 18:29:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Deeds is fortunate there's no early voting in VA.

This last minute come from behind third-to-first in the polls by Deeds is quite exciting to be witnessing.

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by: homerun @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 17:11:55 PM CDT

Not sure it would have mattered

Most people seemed genuinely undecided.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 17:13:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

As a CA voter

who has spent more than half of 2009 in VA for business reasons (SW of Richmond) I can tell you I was confident that if Creigh could get his message out he would win this thing.  VA is almost a perfect shade of purple and everyone South of Richmond and West of Norfolk have a certain discomfort and unfamiliarity with "big city folk" (seriously, the folks I work with out there act like people like me, from the Bay Area, are from another country).

I have been supporting Creigh for a while (I sent him another $100 last week), but honestly never thought he would have the time or money to get his message out.  I am thoroughly excited to see these latest polls.  Everyone at work knows I am politically obessesed and Ive been pushing Creigh on all of them whenever they ask me a question about who I would vote for if I had the chance.  I haven't met the man yet, but if you ever get a chance to see him speak, its worth it.  The man is seriously wonkish and just captivating enough to hold your attention.

I never had a problem with Terry or Brian's politics, but their style on the stump and their campaigns immediately turned me off.  Creigh is engaging and his folksiness works in the areas of VA with which Im most intimately familiar.  I would probably never volunteer my time for Terry or Brian, but if I keep travelling out there and Creigh wins this thing I will definitely put in my 10 hours at work and go do another 8 for Creigh.

Im sure you guys have heard enough of my love for Creigh by this point, but I will say one last thing: Creigh is the real deal (so is Joe Abbey for that matter) and I am truly thrilled to see how this has developed.

GO CREIGH!

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by: BigDust @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 17:18:00 PM CDT

Joe Abbey is a big reason about why I (would) suport Deeds

if I could vote in Virgina. He's a brilliant campaign operative. Terry has put together a much better team for himself then he did for Hillary but he can't match Joe. His campaign manager Mike Henry is best known for his memo advising her to not campaign in Iowa (that sure helped) and while his Virgina smarts are a bit better I'm not as confident in that team as I am in Team Deeds to win in the general election which is mostly what I care about.

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by: Populista @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 19:21:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Interesting to consider how different

this race would have been if a few hundred people had voted the other way (or voted) in 2005; Deeds would be AG, and probably the presumptive nominee, and McDonnell might not even be running.

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by: SC @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 18:39:41 PM CDT

It would almost assuredly have been

Deeds vs. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling in that case.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 18:45:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Why didn't Bolling run this time? EOM

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by: vicupstate @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 19:12:11 PM CDT

Weird

Schweitzer's endorsement is weird.  Not only because of the candidate and because of his leadership position but because of the timing.  What does he think he can do with less than a week to go?

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by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 19:46:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Im wondering that, too

But Im not surprised. As the Gov. cant run for 2 consecutive terms, meaning every 4 years there will be an open race. Although, in 2013, Tim Kaine could very well run again and be massively favored. Its like hed be the incumbent, given his popularity. Assuming his popularity holds strong for the next half year.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:00:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Although

I could see Kaine being picked for a Cabinet position (any number of ones) sometime in the future.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:02:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Agreement between Bolling and McDonnell

that Bolling would run for re-election and McDonnell would run for Governor. It would have been reversed had Kaine been appointed to an Obama administration post, though, as then Bolling would have been the quasi-incumbent.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:25:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wonder why Bolling wasn't

itching to move up.  Does he just like being Lt. Gov.?

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by: wmlawman @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:35:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No

but he knew he'd lose to McDonell in the primary so he figured he'd stay and run in 2013.

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by: Populista @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:40:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Who should I vote for for Lieutenant Governor?

I'm filling out my absentee ballot right now.  I am voting for Creigh Deeds.  But I looked on his website and couldn't determine who he was supporting for Lieutenant Governor.  Does anyone know who is the best of the 3 candidates?  I am trying to decide between Michael Signer and Jon Bowerbank.  I am not voting for the woman because she is guaranteed to lose like the female Democrat LG nominee did in 2005 (VA voters won't vote for women...see Hilary Clinton as well).

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by: gutter2d @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:01:06 PM CDT

Well...

For what it's worth, Bowerbank dropped out and endorsed Jody Wagner (though his name still appears on your ballot, I guess).

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by: James L. @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:10:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No offense, but that's a really bad

argument.  Hillary didn't win VA for a multitude of reasons, not because she's a woman.  Same for the Lt. Gov. candidate in 05.

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by: wmlawman @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:16:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bowerbank is on your ballot?

That's odd. He dropped out. So don't vote for him. And don't not vote for Wagner beacuse of that.

But I'd highly recomend Signer. He's very smart and worked on Tom Periello's campaign. Here are a few better written endorsements from Virginans.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...
http://anonymousisawoman.blogs...

Also as a interesting sidenote, when Deeds was running for AG Signer was preparing a run for his seat should he win and thus resign.

So yeah. Vote Signer for sure.  

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by: Populista @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:17:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm voting for Jody Wagner

I don't think either candidate has much of a chance at beating Bolling, but Wagner is going to have much better resources, as Signer's fundraising has been pretty bad.

Leslie Byrne lost in 2005 because she was outspent 2-1 and because she's, well, Leslie Byrne. She doesn't have that great a track record at winning.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:24:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Also

twice-elected Attorney General Mary Sue Terry would disagree with your assertion that Virginia doesn't vote for women.

Oh, and Bowerbank is still on the ballot because he withdrew after absentee balloting began.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:30:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What about the AG race?

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by: davybaby @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 22:02:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Steve Shannon is the nominee by default

There's no primary in Virginia if only one candidate files.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 06:33:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Voted!

Thanks for the replies.  I just mailed my ballot and voted for Michael Signer!  I read the information on his website and he seems like a really smart guy who could fix a lot problems the government has.  Also I liked how involved he was with environmental groups when he was growing up.

I still can't get over Leslie Byrne losing the LG race in 2005.  I just don't understand why people would split a ticket for a Governor and Lieutenant Governor.  It would seem that no matter what you would always want to vote for the same party for Governor and LG because they need to work together.

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by: gutter2d @ Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 08:48:15 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Elected 3 to US House

Virginia has elected three women, all recently, to the US House.  JoAnn Davis, Thelma Drake and Leslie Byrne.  The three come from different parts of the state.  I would not let one loss by a relatively weak candidate color your view on women and Virginians.

There are only two states that have never had a woman as US House member, US Senator or Governor.  That's Iowa and Mississippi.  Iowa has repeatedly nominated candidates on both tickets and although electing Cabinet members has not hit one of the big three offices.  Two of the five losers for the US House in Iowa last time were women.

Based on past record, the only state where I'd hesitate to nominate a woman would be Iowa (sorry DesMoinesDem).

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 10:26:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

You know...

The Schweitzer endorsement reminds me that, although he was neutral during the Democratic primaries last year, he also seemed (at least to me) a bit more hostile towards Obama and more favorable towards Clinton, and I'd always wondered about why. At the time, I guess I thought that Schweitzer simply didn't like Obama (for political or personal reasons) but couldn't actually endorse him for fear of annoying the Democratic electorate in Montana (Obama would ultimately go on to win Montana by close to 20 points in the primary).

This has me thinking that, for whatever reason, Schweitzer seems to be fond of Clinton (and perhaps, by extension, Clinton's people). But that's just a passing thought on my part.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

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by: DGM @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 21:06:44 PM CDT

Clinton ties

Well Schweitzer was a Clinton appointee in the 90s in some capacity, right?  Ag Department or some such?  That would explain it perhaps.

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by: zac @ Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 10:40:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

This endorsement is political malpractice by...

...McAuliffe.

Is he trying to win a primary election, or just collecting friends to brag about how much the cool kids love him?

I'm a Virginia Dem primary voter and a campaign activist (albeit not volunteering for the Gov primary), and even if I weren't I have enough political sense to know that these endorsements from other states' Governors, who are not even in neighboring states, only rub some voters the wrong way and are completely ignored by the rest.

Terry should've told Schweitzer "just write me a fat check and keep quiet."

I'm a Deeds voter now after having been undecided until a month ago and still only leaning until this week, and crap like this only reinforces my view that McAuliffe doesn't understand the Virginia electorate.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 22:00:39 PM CDT

To paraphrase Sarah Palin

I can see Virginia from my house (in the winter anyway, when the leaves are off the trees); a street in my neighborhood is named "Virginia View Court." Even though I'm not a Virginian, I've followed the campaign closely.

At the start of this race, I had ranked my preferences as (1) Moran, (2) MaAuliffe and (3) Deeds. Now, if I were a Virginia voter I'd go with McAuliffe. Moran has just run a horrible campaign, and Deeds is just too conservative for my taste.

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by: davybaby @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 22:00:59 PM CDT

Say it ain't so, Schweitzer

Crafted image or not, I've always seen him as one of the good ones. Leaving aside the McAuliffe's history and his myriad problems, I just hate the idea of these party honchos playing kingmaker, whether it's in this race, on either side of the Pennsylvania Senate keruffle... heck, I even understand the complaints of Marco Rubio's followers in Florida. Let the people decide. If things are getting hard, cowboy up and get the job done already. That's how you become a better general election candidate...

On the other hand, it would be classic Terry not to have learned that lesson from 2008. Hey, if he wins the nomination, maybe he'll bring in Mark Penn as his polling guru! Awesome.

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by: Siobhan @ Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 08:46:37 AM CDT

The one difference I see and acknowledge

when it comes to FL is that Crist is a slam-dunk win for the GOP while Rubio will be expensive and may still lose.  But I havent quite decided if that trumps what I think the NRSC should be doing as well, keeping it's business out of primaries.  They could've at least have waited til polling or something, ya know?

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by: Andrew @ Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 10:12:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]