I thought VA had nominating conventions

Last year's GOP Senate race was largely decided in a convention where Republicans selected Jim Gilmore causing Tom Davis to drop out of the race. Does this not exist for the Democrats? Or is it only in federal races?  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 19:35:25 PM UTC

As I recall

What happened was that conservative partisans pushed for a convention rather than a primary so as to cock-block Tom Davis. I think a primary was (and generally is) the default option.

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 20:09:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Huh

One of our Southern Politics professors claims that one of the keys to the Democratic resurrection in VA was the fact that divisive primaries were avoided through convention which selected the candidates. Guess I need to read up a little on that.  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 20:21:45 PM UTC

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Charles Bullock?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 20:38:53 PM UTC

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Yeah it was Bulloch

I'm trying to get a hold of one of his former students to see why he said that was the case.  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 20:46:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bullock*

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 20:46:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

David is correct

Apparently, even Tom Davis' fake moderation (as in, almost never, but the occasional bullshittery to try and pretend otherwise) was too much for the grand poo-bahs in VaRepubLand. So, they went the convention route to ensure the rout by ex-Gov. Warner over ex-Gov. (and disaster) Gilmore. It was all a bit silly, since Jesus Christ himself couldn't win against Mark Warner in Virgina (Jesus being a bit too liberal for the true believers in southern and central VA).  

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by: Ron @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 20:34:04 PM UTC

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It depends

When there's an open seat, the parties get to pick whether they will have a primary or a convention. Incumbents get to choose when they face primary challenges.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 22:30:47 PM UTC

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Blech

You'd think Virgina Democrats would care a bit more about holding this seat. This is a pretty terrible slate of candidates.

At least McAuliffe will have boatloads of cash, and will not be afraid to go heavy negative on McDonnell. That's what it's going to take to beat him at this point. I don't see African American turnout being all that strong for Terry.

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by: TrueBlueDem @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 19:50:29 PM UTC

The problem

VA has no effective Dem establishment -- Kaine is a bit of a joke in Dem-land around here (in spite of POTUS' love for him), and many of the local committees are run by fools (see: City of Alexandria, VA!).

There are plenty of us that want to hang on to this seat, but Moran is also running something of an incompetent campaign, and it's just pretty hard to get ginned up about putting in the sweat and blood to hold a seat when the 'best' candidate shows so little competence in these types of affairs.

Terry McAuliffe has a chance against Bob McDonnell, but he will need to spend $20 million to buy the Guv's mansion. Demographically, this state is still trending blue, and McDonnell is out of the mainstream.

But I know plenty of Dems that will not vote for Terry under any circumstances, and I have a hard time telling them that they're wrong. Hopefully, they'll decide to hold their noses and pull the lever for McAuliffe should it work out that way, but I'm not very optimistic.

Sadly, we may have to wait until the elections of 2011 to get anything done statewide in Virginia (after re-apportionment).  

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by: Ron @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 20:38:21 PM UTC

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Any hope for D pickups

in the House of Delegates or lower statewide offices?  I'm not persuaded the governorship is such a grand prize, after watching how much or little both Warner and Kaine were able to make of it.

The Big Man theory of building Party power seems sort of discredited at this point.  Looking at Nevada and states like that, from the bottom up seems to be the serious and effective way of doing it.

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by: Baystater @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 21:52:24 PM UTC

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Are the House of Delegates all up for reelection?

Or is it a tiered system?

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 22:05:23 PM UTC

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All 100 seats are up.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 22:33:19 PM UTC

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And Exhibits B and C:

Kansas and Wyoming

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by: californianintexas @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 22:06:05 PM UTC

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Alternatively

Look at the GOP in GA who flipped the State Senate and State House within 2 years of winning the Governorship in 2002.

But personally I agree with the bottom up approach especially when it comes to statewide elected officials like AG and Executive Commissioners (like agriculture and labor) who make great candidates for Governor and Senator. Winning those races even when we can take the Governorship is a worthy endeavor in the long run.  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 22:15:32 PM UTC

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Attorney General is a good pickup opportunity

The Democratic nominee, Steve Shannon, has outraised all the other Republicans combined.

Lieutenant Governor is probably not going to flip.

There are some possible House of Delegates pickups, but I don't think we will get the 6 needed to take control of the House.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 22:32:58 PM UTC

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It looks as though there are opportunities in S Central VA

In Perriello's district and in Forbes district just by looking at the map showing which party represents which area in the South. Those counties largely voted for Obama (or were at least close) and probably could be targeted successfully.  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 23:03:09 PM UTC

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Yes, re: HoD

I'm in the minority (I think), but I think it's possible that Va Dems pick up the six seats necessary (or more) to flip the HoD AND still lose the governorship -- that can/will happen b/c many NoVa precincts where McAuliffe will need tons of votes will have uncontested races, so Dems won't come out en masse just for Terry.

We'll pick up at least three in NoVa -- potentially all six or seven needed. And there are definitely pickup possibilities in Hampton Roads and Danville and even Roanoke and Blacksburg.

Re: Nevada ... boy, I wish there were a credible grassroots primary challenger to our 'Leader' in the Senate. But I agree with you in general -- bottom up, we'll get there long run as Virginny becomes ever more diverse and the Repub coalition and 'ideas' become ever smaller and more vitriolic.

And at least Virginia isn't a machine state, so there is room for new leaders to emerge w/o having to kiss the ring.  

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by: Ron @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 23:29:42 PM UTC

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VA

Looks like Terry will win this in a walk and then get crushed in November.  Let's hope Corzine can pick it up.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 12:40:47 PM UTC

Terry can win

Either way it'll be close. I really don't see a blowout.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 16:16:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]