VA-Gov: Deeds Surges in New PPP Poll

by: James L.

Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 1:05 PM EDT

Creigh Deeds (D): 27 (20)
Terry McAuliffe (D): 24 (29)
Brian Moran (D): 22 (20)
Undecided: 26 (31)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

Tom Jensen breaks down the factors that are currently benefiting Deeds:

Two developments in the race appear to have fueled the movement over the last week and a half:

-Deeds' endorsement by the Washington Post has resulted in a significant increase in support in northern Virginia. He was polling at 11% there two weeks ago and that has more than doubled in the wake of the endorsement to 23%. With that region casting about 30% of the primary vote, more than half of his progress since the last poll has come there alone.

-McAuliffe has seen a decline in support in the Hampton Roads and greater Richmond areas since Brian Moran went on the airwaves with ads attacking him. He's dropped from 34 to 23% in Richmond and from 33 to 25% in Hampton Roads.

Even still, PPP cautions that the race is anyone's game: that block of undecideds is still pretty huge (26%), and even among voters who do have a preference, a large number of them (44%) say that they could still change their mind. McAuliffe's favorables are by far the weakest in the Dem field (39-35, comapared to 48-13 for Deeds and 44-18 for Moran), but he's currently launching a costly moneynuke in the vote-rich DC media market -- something that the cash-strapped Moran and Deeds can't compete with.

And speaking of Northern VA, SUSA has a NoVA-only poll showing Moran leading McAuliffe by 43-27, with Deeds checking in at 20%. That's not far off from the Moran 36/McAuliffe 27/Deeds 23 split from PPP's innards.

PPP will be releasing one final poll of this race on Sunday night (or Monday morning), so we'll have one final chance to see if McAuliffe's big-spending ways are having an impact.

(Discussion already underway in conspiracy's diary.)