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CT-Sen: Dodd Gets a Little Healthier, but It's Still Ugly

by: DavidNYC

Wed May 27, 2009 at 10:02 PM EDT

Quinnipiac University (5/20-25, registered voters, late March in parens):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39 (34)
Rob Simmons (R): 45 (50)
Undecided: 13 (12)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 41 (37)
Sam Caligiuri (R): 39 (41)
Undecided: 17 (17)
(MoE: ±2.5%)

Still terribly ugly, but at least the trend is in the right direction. Perhaps all the positive press Dodd got regarding his just-passed credit card legislation has been helping. Let's just hope we don't see any renewed feeding frenzies over Countrywide, AIG or the like.

Quinnipiac also took a look at some primary matchups:

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 44
Merick Alpert (D): 24
Undecided: 30
(MoE: 4%)

Rob Simmons (R): 48
Sam Caligiuri (R): 10
Undecided: 39
(MoE: 5%)

As Q notes, it's pretty disturbing that a nobody like Merick Alpert - unknown to 91% of Democrats - should already be pulling a quarter of the primary vote as an "ABD" choice.

And finally, Quinnipiac asked a free-answer question about why exactly voters like and dislike Dodd:

In an open-ended question, allowing for any answer, 34 percent of voters who approve of Dodd list his experience and/or ability as the main reason.

For those who disapprove, 24 percent list Dodd's overall dishonesty or lack of integrity, with 17 percent who cite his failure to deal with banking industry problems and 11 percent who point specifically to the Countrywide mortgage deal.

Needless to say, these aren't easy things to overcome.

DavidNYC :: CT-Sen: Dodd Gets a Little Healthier, but It's Still Ugly
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Dodd's going to come out of this okay.
He's showing improvement now, and how time goes on he'll get better.  Alpert has proven himself to be a rather distasteful sort of Democrat, no Ned Lamont by any stretch, and Simmons, who will probably be the eventual nominee for the Republicans, has had pretty bad fundraising.  End of the day, this turns out like Menendez in '06.  Dodd's gonna be fine.

If only 11% of the people care about his personal mortgage scandal, then Dodd is in alright shape. CT is pretty used to crooked politicians anyway.

Dodd won't win 63-37, but will probably win 55-45, as Dems and liberal independents will come home when they realize that Senate terms are 6 years long, way too long to have a Republican in office just to teach Dodd a lesson. Plus most voters will get their GOP fix by voting for Jodi Rell and then vote a straight Democratic ticket the rest of the ballot.

Hopefully, though, the GOP drops a few million in the state trying to pull off the big news upset in CT, instead of spending that money in NH, NC, OH, MO, etc.

I do hope though that the Working Families Party doesn't decide to try and become a real CT party and run their own candidate in this race.

These kind of open-ended questions
Tend to produce only small groupings for any single issue. Manhattanville did a poll like this of David Paterson. "Only 15%" rated him negatively because of budget cuts. Yet the guy is all but doomed. You can have one dagger-blow (like Mahoney or Foley), or you can die of a thousand cuts. Both still suck.

[ Parent ]
I just don't see a GOP victory happening here.  Dodd's numbers will only go up.

Alpert will fade
I just don't see his prospects for growth. Liberal Democrats aren't going to support him and most of those who are more conservative probably object less to Dodd's links to the banking industry anyway.

Meanwhile, no viable primary challenger will emerge in his place. Blumenthal would probably win, but the numbers aren't yet strong enough (are they ever?)

Give it a year, and Dodd will be comfortably ahead in general election polling. He just hasn't committed a fireable offence.

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