Premium Sponsor


Featured Sponsor


Our Sponsors


Ad Networks

Advertise Liberally

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

CT-Sen: Dodd Gets Spanked in Terrifying Q-Poll

by: James L.

Thu Apr 02, 2009 at 1:30 PM EDT


Quinnipiac (3/26-31, registered voters, 3/3-3/8 in parens):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 34 (42)
Rob Simmons (R): 50 (43)
Undecided: 12 (12)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 37 (47)
Sam Caligiuri (R): 41 (34)
Undecided: 17 (16)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 35
Tom Foley (R): 43
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±2.9%)

Quinnipiac finds that Nutmeggers are mad as hell, and they're not going to take it anymore. In the wake of Dodd's admission that he inserted the language that allowed bonus payments to be made to AIG executives, Dodd's already poor favorability rating has taken a brutal hit: he currently is sitting on a 58% unfavorable rating, and his re-elect/dump score is a chilling 35-59. A full 54% of voters consider Dodd untrustworthy, and 39% place "a lot" of blame on Dodd for the bonusgate fiasco, while another 35% place "some" blame on the Senator. (That's a higher share of blame than is placed on George W. Bush, who receives scorn from 59% of CT voters for the AIG payments.) Still, the fact that a five-term incumbent like Dodd is losing to a pair of no-name generic GOPers with name recognition in the teens is fairly jarring.

The results from this poll differ fairly sharply from the first post-AIG poll done by R2K in the immediate aftermath of the revelations; in that survey, Dodd held a 45-40 lead over Simmons, and was over 50 against Caligiuri and non-candidate Larry Kudlow. We'll probably want to see another poll before we start asking Dodd to walk the plank (as the DSCC is refusing to do publicly at this stage), but I'm sure we won't be facing a shortage of polls from this race over the coming months.

More discussion on this poll is already underway in andgarden's diary.
James L. :: CT-Sen: Dodd Gets Spanked in Terrifying Q-Poll
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
CT-Sen: Dodd Gets Spanked in Terrifying Q-Poll | 27 comments
Time to call it quits
Imagine if a conservative Republican 30-year-incumbent was trailing a Democratic opponent by 16 points, said Dem opponent was at 50%, and the state was generally considered solid red. The NRSC would have that incumbent announcing his retirement within hours!

(And no, not even Bunning has numbers this bad. Not remotely. Imagine someone like Thad Cochran or Orrin Hatch trailing by 16 points and you get a picture of how dismal this situation is.)

but
none of them are currently taking the majority of the blame for a huge fiasco. Once the AIG stuff subsides, he should be fine.
[ Parent ]
Over reaction
It is the beginning of April 2009. If Dodd is polling like this in December, then it's a cause for concern, and more than enough time to hold the seat with "plan B." But right now, people are frustrated with the pace of real progress, and are lashing out at Dodd for a variety of reasons both real and imagined - mostly imagined and to some degree stoked by the Right Wing Noise Machine.

But let's not equate the recent apparent stumbles of Dodd with the utter and total governmental malfeasance of the GOP. Dodd is at most guilty of a venial sin, and time will bear that out.

[ Parent ]
Yes it is an overreaction (for now)
I totally agree with Egalitare. These numbers to me represent the rock bottom for Dodd, in the wake of the AIG controversy. If he is still this week at the end of the year, then a push to force him to retire should begin. However right now it is too soon to tell. Especially since alot of the anger over AIG should be unwarrented. (It should be directed towards the U.S. Treasurery Department instead, it is them who asked Dodd to insert the provision not applying bonus restrictions to those done retroactivly).
[ Parent ]
like Burns or Stevens?
while it was never this bad, and alaska is a bit more partisan than conn, these are still similar situations.

being normal is for the mediocre.
[ Parent ]
Montana seems to be relatively fluid in its partisan leanings
and Alaska is a strange basket-case of Republicans who are the big-government dudes and the Democrats trying to get a word in edgewise or something.  Or at least that's the sense I've gotten from observing Alaska politics fifth-hand or so.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Denial
Dodd's supporters really are in denial now. Plus the reports that Dodd has blown most of his previously fat Congressional campaign warchest on his idiotic presidential run makes me question his judgement on every level.

Such a pity that the CT governor is a Republican, because a job in the Obama admin. could've been a face-saving way out for him.

[ Parent ]
What are Connecticut laws on U.S. Senate appointments?
I'm not familiar with them.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
I think she gets to appoint a Republican
IIRC, that was a problem many Democrats had with Gore choosing Lieberman in 2000...John Rowland was governor and would get to put a Republican in Lieberman's seat.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Well, Rowland self-destructed anyway.
Though Rell doesn't seem likely to repeat history.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
still that republican would only last until 2010
when a non-dodd would most likely win.  besides, assuming we get franken it would just mean we go to 58 for this cycle, where we are now.  no real harm in the long run.

being normal is for the mediocre.
[ Parent ]
there's a remedy
as Democrats have vet-proof majorities in both houses of the CT legislature...
[ Parent ]
Ya
They really need to pull a Massachusetts 2004 and pass a law for a special election for vacancies.
[ Parent ]
Ugh.
I'm reluctant to call for his retirement, but if he continues to poll so poorly he should definitely consider it.
Approval rating is suspect.
I've mentioned in andgarden's diary that the approval rating looks suspect.

He was at like high-40s/low-40s approve/disapprove recently.  Nothing much has happened since then.  I find it hard to believe that he's plunged to 35/58.  40/49 I can believe.  35/58 requires that I really ask what's going on here.

Then again, this is Quinnipiac polling its home state, for what it's worth.

And then again, this is me commenting on my own home state as well.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

Yawn....
Dodd's troubles should blow over.  Right now most voters don't even know who Simmons is, and they'd pick a ham sandwich over Dodd at the moment.  Once voters are made aware that he's nothing but a former Bush-dog right-wing DC hack they'll be more than willing to keep Dodd around.
i think we're getting complacent in the whole "they'll blame bush thing"
no matter how bad bush was people don't hold those tyes of grudges for long.  he's been repudiated in 2 elections, and i'll bet most nonpoliticos feel their job is done in terms of making republicans suffer for bush.  were people really so mad at nixon they rejected a bunch of republicans for it in 1978?  or carter and the dems in 1982?  no, those were big republican and democratic years respectively (1982 was a good house year, senate was m3h)

being normal is for the mediocre.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I think we are done with blaming Bush except for in some special cases like Ohio where Portman was directly responsible for many of the problems people are having.
[ Parent ]
Huh?
We already has super-majorities in 1978.  You can't gain a lot of seats when you already have overwhelming majorities in both chambers.  

And the economy was still in recession in 1982.  Of course people were going to blame Reagan and his nutty policies.

Unless the economy still shows no signs of recovering by late 2010 we really don't have much to worry about in placesl ike CT.  If that isn't the case, well... we have bigger problems than one Senate seat.

[ Parent ]
Dodd needs to pack it in
Let Blumenthal, Lamont or DeLauro run.  He's served five terms and been in congress for 35 years.  With that, and these numbers, it's time to retire.  Don't give away a seat the way your father did in 1970.
Dodd
Dodd is a 64 year old man with a 3 year old and a 7 year old daughter. For family reasons alone he needs to do the right thing and spend as much time with them as possible. Just my two cents.
[ Parent ]
Turn it around in 4-5 months, or head for the door...
Once a politician has been that low for an extended period of time, the damage usually cannot be repaired. He is in serious trouble and he helps brings down ALL Democrats.  

   

Uhh... no
How does Dodd bring down all Democrats?  There are few to no competitive races in CT in 2010, and I seriously doubt many people outside of CT have ever heard of him.  The only risk Dodd poses is to our chances of holdinh his Senate seat.  
[ Parent ]
McKinney vs. Himes, 4th District


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
I was referring to competitive contests
Not 3rd tier longshot house races.
[ Parent ]
McKinney is a big deal
I really wouldn't be so quick to write him off as a "third tier longshot".
[ Parent ]
I'll give him longer
Mid November. 1 year out from e-Day. If there are 0 signs of life from there, cut the cord. And there better have been encouraging signs in the time until then.
[ Parent ]
CT-Sen: Dodd Gets Spanked in Terrifying Q-Poll | 27 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

Talk to your supporters, not tech support. Campaign Engine is the powerful, affordable Progressive Campaign Software.

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Contributing Editor: Crisitunity

SSP's Twitter Feed

SSP on Facebook

SSP's Frappr Map

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

Subscribe to SSP's RSS feed: Subscribe via FeedBurner

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

Partisan Voting Index

House Open Seat Watch

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

2010 Political Calendar

SSP Race Ratings

Senate Race Ratings

Gubernatorial Race Ratings

House Vulnerability Index

Blogroll

Daily Kos
DemConWatch
DLCC Blog
Five Thirty Eight
From The Roots (DSCC)
Hotline On Call
Kicking Ass (DNC)
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Project 2010 (DGA)
The Next Hurrah
Senate Guru
The Stakeholder (DCCC)
The Thicket (NCSL)
Powered by: SoapBlox