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FL-Gov/Sen: Mase-Dix Has McCollum Over Sink, Crist Crushing

by: DavidNYC

Tue May 19, 2009 at 4:40 PM EDT


Mason Dixon (PDF) for Ron Sachs Communications (5/14-18, registered voters for general, likely voters for primaries, April 2009 in parens).

Senate primary matchups:

Kendrick Meek (D): 26
Dan Gelber (D): 16
Undecided: 58

Charlie Crist (R): 53
Marco Rubio (R): 18
Undecided: 29
(MoE: ±6%)

Senate general election matchups:

Kendrick Meek (D): 24
Charlie Crist (R): 55
Undecided: 21

Dan Gelber (D): 22
Charlie Crist (R): 57
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4%)

Governor primary matchups:

Jeb Bush (R): 64
Bill McCollum (R): 13
Charles Bronson (R): 2
Undecided: 21

Bill McCollum (R): 39
Charles Bronson (R): 12
Undecided: 49
(MoE: ±6%)

Governor general election matchups:

Alex Sink (D): 34 (35)
Bill McCollum (R): 40 (36)
Undecided: 26 (29)

Alex Sink (D): 37
Charles Bronson (R): 29
Undecided: 34

Alex Sink (D): 34
Jeb Bush (R): 50
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4%)

The poll sample was 43D, 38R and 19I. I'm including the results of an early April Mason-Dixon poll as a trendline for the Sink-McCollum matchup, even though it was taken for a different client - the question wording was identical, and the sample size very similar.
DavidNYC :: FL-Gov/Sen: Mase-Dix Has McCollum Over Sink, Crist Crushing
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FL-Gov/Sen: Mase-Dix Has McCollum Over Sink, Crist Crushing | 20 comments
Questions, questions
1. I wonder if Meek is considering re-entering his local Congressional primary?
2. Can Jeb Bush run again?
3. Is there anything Meek can do to get Crist below 50%?
4. Can I stop asking questions now?
Jeb can run again.
It's a limit of two terms in a row, but no life time limit.

I'm hoping Sink wins.  This is our best shot at governor.

[ Parent ]
I see (n/t)

[ Parent ]
Meek has said repeatedly
he's in regardless of what happens.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
40-34's not so bad
I'm rooting wholeheartedly for Sink, and I think she can do it if we help.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
Premier Race of 2010
I think this is going to be the premier race of 2010.  Winning will give us a beachhead for making Florida competitive in the state and federal delegations for the next decade.  Lose, and we're in the minority for another 10 years.  I'd rather win this one than probably any other race in 2010.
[ Parent ]
Uh oh
I would be a shame if McCollum slipped through. I think Sink can take him, but it's going to be expensive.
McCollum is somewhat of a known quantity
These aren't bad baseline numbers at all. Interesting that Rothenberg has already put it at "Lean Takeover". Tossup for the moment in my book.
[ Parent ]
Pretty similar to Quinnipiac
From left to right - Favorable, Unfavorable, Neutral, Don't Recognize
Bill McCollum 29% 12% 35% 24%
Alex Sink 24% 3% 28% 45%
[ Parent ]
Toss-up at best right now
Sink has room to grow, as her don't knows are high. But that also negates the benefit she takes from her greatest advantage, her performance as CFO. I'm just not seeing the jubilation here. It's going to be a long, hard, expensive slog, and we may still lose. Better than running against Crist, but we aren't out of the woods yet.

Especially since rumours of McCollum's political death are exaggerated. Caveats about undecideds aside, he currently leads by 10 points amongst undecideds and performs better than the generic Republican that Bronson represents.

As for the Senate race, we're likely to lose, but I think those numbers are unrepresentative. 57 and 77% of likely Democratic primary voters don't know who Meek or Gelber are. Amongst the state as a whole, that's 67 and 80%. Right now Crist edges Gelber amongst Democrats. These things will not be true in November 2010.

Although it'll likely just be a question of whether we lose 60-40 or 55-45. If it builds us a suitable candidate for future statewide races (like Charlie Crist, defeated 63-37 by Graham in 1998) then I'll take it.

Senate race is gone whatever
But to go from a similar situation in the governors race to a tossup is remarkable. I don't think anybody is under the illusion it will be easy but at the same time I don't think confidence is unfounded.
[ Parent ]
Alex Sink (D): 34 Jeb Bush (R): 64
those numbers smell fishy, they're crap really. Bush didn't do near that well even against Bill McBride.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
it's a typo
They found Jeb Bush with 50%.
[ Parent ]
what is this that's posted about:
Alex Sink (D): 34
Jeb Bush (R): 64
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4%)

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
It's a typo
click on the link at the beginning of this post.  It's 34% Sink, 50% Bush, 16% undecided.  34+50+16=100

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Thanks
My mistake. Bush got 64% in the GOP primary matchup.
[ Parent ]
No problem
As Danny Ozark of the Phillies once said "that guys limitations are limitless".  Danny could have been talking about me.

We are all human!  Well, except for some right-wing extremists...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
okay, then that seems a little
more reasonable.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Easy target
I lived in FL in the 80s.  At that time, McCollum was considered the nutter Republican congressman in the area with Bill Young and Mike Billirakis (gus' father) the moderates.  His impeachment manager stint made it worse.

McCollum's web site has him picking a nice safe mostly irrelevant topic as his cause as Attorney General: child pornography.  He's obviously out to sleep on consumer issues, health issues, etc.

I think a good campaign can once again take him down.

Paul Kersey!
God, I hope McCollum has some skeletons in the closet, because having a Charles Bronson in the race would be comedy gold.
FL-Gov/Sen: Mase-Dix Has McCollum Over Sink, Crist Crushing | 20 comments

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