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FL-Sen, FL-Gov: McCollum Leads Sink By 1 (for Governor)

by: Crisitunity

Fri Apr 03, 2009 at 2:19 PM EDT


Mason-Dixon for Sayfie Review/PowerPlay (3/30-4/1, registered voters):

Alex Sink (D): 35
Bill McCollum (R): 36
(MoE: ±4%)

It seems like not that long ago we were looking at a potential Florida senate race between CFO Alex Sink and AG Bill McCollum. With Gov. Charlie Crist sounding more and more like he's moving to switch over to the Senate, causing the lower ranks on Florida's political totem pole to gravitate over to the governor's race, we may now be looking at a Sink/McCollum FL-Gov race instead, and that's what Mason-Dixon just polled. (In fact, if those numbers look vaguely familiar to you, it's because Quinnipiac did a head-to-head poll of a Sink/McCollum FL-Sen matchup in mid-January, and that poll also found McCollum 36, Sink 35!)

Mason-Dixon didn't poll head-to-heads on a Crist-centered Senate race (either GOP primary or general). However, they did ask whether voters would "consider" voting for him, for which the answers were 17% definitely, 50% consider, and 26% definitely not. There is one note of caution for Crist here, though: he gets an 18% "definitely not" from Republicans (compared with a 35% "definitely not" from Democrats). That could point to a very competitive primary with a more orthodox conservative opponent. With former House speaker Marco Rubio intent on staying in the race and highlighting Crist's stimulus-loving ways, it seems likely Rubio will be that opponent.

Crisitunity :: FL-Sen, FL-Gov: McCollum Leads Sink By 1 (for Governor)
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McCollum is a clown
All things being equal I think Sink would beat him by something in the area of 53-46.

I'm torn
I really, really want that Senate seat.  While we're pretty much guaranteed at this point to hit 60 Senators in 2010 (even if we lose Dodd, we are heavily favored in New Hampshire, and will probably win at least a couple out of Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and Kentucky), as long as we've got clowns like Pryor and Landrieu slowing us down, we're going to need a few more to ensure they aren't tempted to join GOP filibusters.  If we could get up to 64 seats (actually a very realistic goal), I think it would be kind of a critical mass where bills will just start passing and our conservative senators will find themselves unable to really slow down legislation.

That said, if Crist is still governor in 2012 we are going to get screwed majorly in Florida redistricting.  Might literally be the difference between picking up several congressional seats or losing a few.


Take Crist out of the Senate race
And I'd still put the seat behind NH, MO, OH, PA, KY and NC. Dodd recovers or retires and that would be 65 seats right there. Which is better? 65 and winning the gubernatorial race or 66 and Governor Crist?

[ Parent ]
Crist may cross over for some votes as well
Unless he cuts to the right (ie. runs for President) I can imagine him being more in the Snowe-Collins-Specter mold.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Sure
And truth be told he ain't exactly a terrible governor either.

[ Parent ]
I agree
It's just redistricting I think most of us are concerned with.  Though there is a chnace Crist lives up to his reputation and forces the state legislature to draw a sane map in 2012.

[ Parent ]
getting a larger majority
would actually give t hem more leeway to vote conservatively on issues that wouldn't play well at home.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Yes,
but that would be a good thing. We could get progressive legislation passed and allow a few of are vunerable members to take more moderate stands on bills that may harm them back home.

[ Parent ]
Right...
And they would be free to vote against the legislation but not support a filibuster. So in essence, we would only need 51 votes to pass things in the Senate again, not 60.  

[ Parent ]
How do the optics work on that?
1. How likely is it that people don't even know what the terms "filibuster", "cloture", and "voting to end debate" mean?
2. How easy is it for opponents to spin things against senators who vote against a bill but vote for cloture?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
2. Very easy
"My opponent says he was for it before he was against it..."

[ Parent ]

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