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NC-Sen: Cooper Won't Challenge Burr

by: James L.

Fri May 15, 2009 at 1:11 PM EDT


Bad news:

Big news out of North Carolina: Attorney General Roy Cooper won't be running for the Senate, depriving Democrats of one of their top recruits against Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.).

"While I am honored by the encouragement I've received, I don't want to go to Washington and serve as a U.S. Senator at this time," Cooper said in a statement. "I am committed to public service and I want to serve here in North Carolina rather than in Washington."

This is a major bummer, no doubt. Most polls had Cooper running neck and neck with Burr, holding him well under 50% in all cases -- the best numbers any Democrat have yielded in a hypothetical head-to-head.

Still, Burr, who possesses some pretty tepid approval numbers, is not out of the woods yet. Much like Elizabeth Dole last cycle, he's still polling under 50% against a variety of lesser-known Democrats -- including a 39-34 lead against Democratic congressman Mike McIntyre, who himself is not ruling out a bid for the office. Perhaps Bob Menendez should get on the phone, stat.

UPDATE: Roll Call offers a few more recruitment possibilities:

National Democrats could look to several Democratic Members from North Carolina, including Reps. Bob Etheridge and Mike McIntyre, to run for the seat. State Treasurer Richard Moore, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Grier Martin are also possible targets of Democratic recruitment.

LATER UPDATE: The News & Observer has an even more expansive list of potential candidates. It's well worth a look.
James L. :: NC-Sen: Cooper Won't Challenge Burr
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NC-Sen: Cooper Won't Challenge Burr | 59 comments
I don't want McIntyre
We can do better statewide than him ideologically and his district may be lost if it's left open.
Schuler
you're up to bat now.

Who was the other guy who was just talking about possibly running?  Maybe he'd be a better option so we dont lose that house seat.

Shuler
[ Parent ]
Anyways, we can do better than Schuler
Someone like Brad Miller could probably beat Burr, no need to get another Evan Bayh type in the Senate.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
[ Parent ]
McIntyre is just as bad
If not worse than Shuler.  And his district is repub leaning.  I don't want to see either of them run statewide.
[ Parent ]
McIntyre
is better than Shuler (relatively speaking, of course). His DW/N score last congress was - 0.211, compared with - 0.097 for Shuler, which is a difference of about 20 slots (208th vs. 230th). McIntyre may have a lower lifetime Prog Punch score because he's been around for a while, including back when the Blue Dogs were getting rolled all the time when they were in the minority; Shuler has the advantage of always having been in the majority.

Also, I think NC-07 has a long Democratic tradition downballot and is an easier district to hold than NC-11. While the 11th is basically the Appalachians (with Asheville being the only reason we're competitive there), the 7th is coastal with a college town (Wilmington), a military town (Fayetteville), and a lot of African-Americans and Native Americans.

(Not an endorsement, of course. One of the statewide electeds is still probably a better bet.)

[ Parent ]
I didnt read carefully
McIntyre.  
[ Parent ]
At the very least
The DSCC needs to approach Brad Miller again.  Doubt he goes for it thoguh.
Miller would be a good candidate
But I doubt if he will jump into this race.  I hope just like you that he reconsiders.
[ Parent ]
Damn it!
Well, at least this one isn't lost yet.  There are plenty of statewide office holders in North Carolina to pick from (interestingly enough, most of them are women).  And hell, if none of them want to give it ago, there's always Grier Martin.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.
Dems control
virtually every statewide office. We should be able to find someone.
I suggest
[ Parent ]
All positions except Secretary of Labor and Agriculural Commissioner
However, most of the current members have been recently elected this last year.  We just elected a new Gov, Lt. Gov, Treasurer, State Auditor, and Insurance Commissioner.  I think the State School Superintendent was either elected last year or in 2004.

I would definitely support Elaine Marshall, our Secretary of State since 1996, but I don't believe she will jump into the race based on comments I've heard from Elaine's staff.  She lost in the 2002 primary (came in 3rd).  From what I've heard she will probably stay in NC for awhile.

[ Parent ]
I'm not worried
The Tarheel state will be fine in 2010.  We will find a Democrat that can defeat Burr.

In 1986, we recycled an ex-Governor named Terry Sanford (he had last served in office in 1964) and we won the race.  John Edwards decided to jump into the race in 1998, and he defeated Faircloth.

Although a lot of big names have said no to jumping into this race, I don't think it will take a 1st tier candidate to defeat Burr.

BTW, I really don't want McIntyre to jump into this race.  He would be a lot like Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and I think NC can do a lot better than McIntyre for this seat.  I also do not think McIntyre would rally the Democrats to vote for him at election time.  Although his politics is to the right of Erskine Bowles, I think he would probably come out like Bowles did in 2002 and 2004.

I'm hoping we can get a member of the NC legislature to jump into this race.  A moderate progressive could defeat Burr even if they are not well known within the state.  Burr is not well known either, which will come to our advantage.

I agree
coughgriermartincough
[ Parent ]
What about Richard Moore?
He was State Treasurer and ran in the Gov. primary against Perdue.  He lost 56-40% which isn't too bad and he served as Treasurer from 2001-2009, giving him eight solid years of statewide representation.

He has nothing to lose and on paper sounds like a good candidate.

I don't believe Moore will run
He's burned some bridges in the NC Democratic party.  I like Richard, and I voted for him in the primary, but he was lukewarm about supporting Perdue in the general election.  There's some friction between him and the leaders of the NC Democratic party.  It may be awhile until he runs for another position.  Also, he's already made noise that he's not interested in pursuing this senate race.
[ Parent ]
So is Cooper runnign for re-election as AG?
He says he wants to keep serving in NC so I assume that's his intention.  Don't believe they have term-limits on AG either.
No term limits for AG
He was just re-elected in 2008.  From what I've heard in the past was that he's more likely to run one day for Governor instead of Senator.
[ Parent ]
Some good consolation news at least
Keeping that governorship over the next few decades will definitely help in cementing NC as a solid blue state on the federal level from a bench-building and organizing standpoint.  
[ Parent ]
A solid blue state on the state level, for sure.
The NC Republican party is in disarray.  They had their best candidate run against Bev Perdue, and Perdue, IMO, wasn't a solid candidate.  But Perdue won.  Some of it was due to the new voters for Obama, but NC has generally been fine with splitting tickets in the past.  That's why prior to this last election, we would elect Democratic Governors and state officials but would vote for the Republican for President.  

The NC Democratic party is fairly moderate, and the new transplants that have settled here from elsewhere tend to vote Democratic on a state level, too.  I know many Republicans that have come here from the Northeast that are very happy with the NC Democratic party.  They can't believe how conservative and God-fearing the NC GOP party presents itself.

I hope Obama can win NC in 2012.  This would go a long way in bringing NC back to a solid blue state.

[ Parent ]
That's the impression I always had about Perdue
I never saw her as a good candidate for Governor in any respect.  In any normal year you'd think McCrory would wipe the floor with her.  Had to be more coattails than anything else.  Had Obama not gone all out for North Carolina she surely would have lost.
[ Parent ]
It's pretty complicated
McCrory is a popular Mayor of Charlotte, but the GOP primary was somewhat bloody.  The other GOP candidates never really warmed up to McCrory.  McCrory only won 46% in the GOP primary.  During the primary season, the other candidates' messages were that McCrory was a RINO.  McCrory made a mistake during the general election by going after Perdue as an establishment Democrat.  He should have run as a moderate-conservative (that's what McCrory basically is) and state that Easley/Perdue had done some good things for NC, but they were out of good ideas.

Another thing that hurt McCrory was his association with Dole.  Dole ran the most disasterous campaign in NC I've ever witnessed.  When she ran the "Godless America" ad, it not only hurt her campaign but other GOP candidates.  

[ Parent ]
I always thought...
that McCrory was finished after the Wachovia collapse and the near-collapse of BoA (both based in Charlotte). I remember thinking that--while Perdue never dominated him in the polls--she always seemed to lead him aftetr that, as opposed to it being a toss-up.
[ Parent ]
Shame
But not the end of the world. Hagan was about sixth choice. And Sheldon Whitehouse, Jon Tester, Jeff Merkley, and Al Franken weren't first choice either but still won.
Mike McIntyre is hardly that different from Richard Burr
I'm a huge fan of Grier Martin and I'm hoping he runs. His name recognition is the lowest of course of the names mentioned, but he's charming and charismatic as hell and is an active member of the Armed Forces I believe.
I really like Grier too
He will only be 42 years old in 2010 and he's got a promising career.  He can definitely defeat Burr.
[ Parent ]
Burr is a very weak candidate
He is similar to Santorum, DeWine, Sununu, Smith, Dole, or Coleman in the previous cycles.  A second string Democratic candidate can beat this guy.

If Cooper, a first-tier candidate had run, this would have been a double digit win.  With someone else, we'll win by 3-5%.

This reminds me of 2007
All the big name Dems said no to challenging Liddy Dole, either because they didn't want a tough fight or because they were happy with where they were, and Kay Hagan was way, way down the list of recruitment possibilities. Then, of course, she was a rocking candidate.
Easley???
Why has no one mentioned the ex-governor?  I know he passed last time, but I thought that was because he wanted to take on the weaker Richard Burr rather than 91 Elizabeth Dole.
He's embroiled in a bit of a scandal right now isn't he?
I've only seen snippets of the local news, but it involves him accepting illegal...flights or something? I'm sure someone else knows what I'm talking about.
[ Parent ]
Easley's Tarnished Legacy
His legacy has taken a hit lately with The Charlotte Observer and The Raleigh News and Observer reporting various shady dealings such as accepting flights that might have been too much in the way of legal campaign contributions, accepting leased cars, and his wife obtaining a job at NC State under nefarious circumstances.  Even without all this, he wouldn't be a likely Senate candidate.  He never sought the limelight (even though he flashed charisma at times on the campaign trail and in office) like traditional politicians do.  He deleted emails about mental health issues along with suggesting people delete emails about this.  He frequently went home to his place on the coast while he was governor.  Washington doesn't seem to appeal to him.
[ Parent ]
You stated it better than me
Easley is somewhat of an enigma in NC, or at least for me.  He can show a lot of charisma, but then he can change his demeanor in a split second.  I honestly thought he improved things in Raleigh during his first term...there were too many people from the good ole boy network of Jim Hunt.  My father worked for both Hunt and Easley, and Dad said that Hunt was definitely more of the people person, Easley had a lot more intelligence and wasn't beholden by the people around him like Governors in the past.  

I would support Easley if I had to, but I hope I'm not forced to do so in 2010.

[ Parent ]
You are right
Easley has been blasted in the newspapers about traveling abroad with his family.  The specifics of the case really bore me, but supposedly the travel was very lavish and the taxpayers of NC flipped the bill.  Also, Easley's wife has been a focal point.  She was hired at NC State for $80,000 a year for three years in 2005, and then she got a new contract paying her $850,000 over 5 years.  I don't know what to believe, but Easley hasn't helped himself out by being very difficult when asked about these accusations.  

Easley doesn't need to run in 2010.  As much as like Easley, he's a difficult person to deal with and he has a cloud of uncertainty hanging over his head.  The Democratic leaders never developed the admiration for Easley like they did for his predecessor, Jim Hunt.  

[ Parent ]
Definitely not the guy we want
[ Parent ]
Burr v. Generic D
PPP in March had Burr leading by 4, 42-38.  However allocating undecideds by race, the lead becomes 1%.

So all we need is someone who's at least a little more compelling than a generic D.  Grier Martin sounds pretty good to me.

Most people in NC say "Burr who?"
Burr's name recognition must be one of the lowest in recent history for a 4 1/2 year US Senator.  It's surprising how many don't even know that Burr is our Senator.  

Grier Martin doesn't have much name recognition, either, but it's not less than it was for Kay Hagen in 2007-2008.

[ Parent ]
so can someone who knows
list possible candidates, and:

1)their chances of running

2)their chances of winning?

I will give it a try
(1) Kenneth Lewis, Durham Attorney.  100% chance he will run, and I have no clue about his electability.  I work in Durham, and I've never heard of Lewis, so that may speak about his current name recognition.

(2)  Elaine Marshall, NC SOS.  10% chance she will run.  I would give her about a 50% chance of defeating Burr.  I don't believe she will run...she lost the primary in 2010.

(3)  Brad Miller, NC-13.  5% chance he will run.  His electability would be around 60%.

(4)  Bob Etheridge, NC-2.  5% chance he will run.  His electability would be around 50%.  He would be 69 in 2010.

(5)  Mike McIntyre, NC-7.  50% chance he will run.  His electability would be around 40%.  I don't see the Democratic base getting ignited behind McIntyre.

(6)  Grier Martin, NC Legislature.  50% chance he will run.  His electability would be around 60%.  He may be our best bet.

(7)  Richard Moore, former NC Treasurer.  Probably 10+% chance he will run.  His electability would be around 40%.  I think he's burned too many bridges with his Governor's run against Perdue last year.  

There are other potential candidates out there, but I don't know their possibilites of running.  I would mention Dan Blue, former NC Speaker of the house.  No one mentions Blue, but he's not a bad candidate.  Walter Dalton could possibly run, but he was just elected as Lt Gov, so I doubt if the electorate would approve of him running in 2010.  

[ Parent ]
You may be right about Miller and Moore's chances being low
My info about their possibilities of running was from last year. The economy has kept me out of the game for much of this year!
[ Parent ]
Sure
Most likely to run in order:
1. Richard Moore
2. Brad Miller (despite what some people are saying)
3. Grier Martin
4. Mike McIntyre
5. Bob Etheridge
6. Elaine Marshall
7. Walter Dalton
8. Mike Easley

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the first four run, I'd be pretty surprised if the others do.

Most likely to win:
I hope this doesn't sound biased, but I think any of them can win as long as they run a competent campaign against Burr. Burr has to be one of the weakest Senate incumbents up for 2010.

My personal preferences in order:
1. Grier Martin
2. Brad Miller
3. Walter Dalton
4. Richard Moore
5. Elaine Marshall
6. Bob Etheridge
7. Mike Easley
8. Mike McIntyre

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised if Martin or McIntyre runs
I think either candidate could win the election, although I prefer Martin.

I've heard sound bytes that Miller won't run for personal reasons.  I saw the article in the Charlotte Observer stating there might be a personal reason he's not running, and also I've heard directly from a member of his church that something might be going on that would preclude him from running.  I don't know any details on exactly what this is about.

As far as Moore goes, I'm worried that its too early for him to run for office again after his 2008 primary defeat to Perdue.  I really like Moore, and he would be a good candidate, but I don't know if the Democratic establishment would rally behind him in 2010.

[ Parent ]
personal issue: separated from wife
http://projects.newsobserver.c... , but that story is from last summer.
I suppose something like that might preclude Miller, depending on how ugly and nasty things were, or still are ...
That would be a shame as good Senate opportunities don't happen very often
[ Parent ]
Uh oh
Cue Vern Robinson and his smears that Brad Miller is having an affair with Markos Moulitsas.
[ Parent ]
McIntyre and Etheridge
It looks like McIntyre's district has a fairly decent republican lean and Etheridge's is fairly evenly split.  What would be our chances of holding either of those seats should one of those reps run for Senate?  I'd imagine we have a farily good bench in both districts.
McIntyre
I'm hoping McIntyre jumps in. He's my type of Democrat.
Your kind
Is the crappy kind?  He fits the district but not the state.
[ Parent ]
Funny
Not getting into some flame war with you, better luck next time.

I think McIntyre is much more in line with the state than Etheridge or Miller. Unless, of course, you want to tell me that NC is some sort of liberal-leaning state now on a federal level. Democratic-leaning? Sure. Liberal-leaning? Nope.

[ Parent ]
Hagen got elected easily
And she's a good bit left of McIntyre.  And don't give me the excuse that she had a bad opponent in Dole.  Burr is every bit as bad as Dole.  

We can do better than McIntyre.  And we also risk losing a house seat with McIntyre.  

[ Parent ]
I agree.
McIntyre's House seat would be very hard to hold. I'd support McIntyre against Burr in the general, but I'd pretty much support any Democrat who got the nomination. We can do better than McIntyre. I'm hoping Grier Martin gets into this. He is a very appealing candidate and has a great profile for a statewide run.
[ Parent ]
Sure
Not sure why you're assuming I was going to use the "Dole was a bad opponent" excuse.

Anyway as far as "We can do better than McIntyre."

Yeah, Heath Shuler.

Otherwise, I don't see anyone better than McIntyre.

[ Parent ]
Sorry
By "better" I was referring to more reliable, not necessarily the most easily elected Democrat.  McIntyre or Shuler are probably the two most easily elected statewide possibilities, but I'd rather not have them run.  One reason is because both hold republican-leaning house seats that I don't want to lose.  The other reason is I think we can get someone a bit less conservative elected considering how weak Burr is.  I know a Senate seat is more valuable than a House seat, but why take that chance when it's unnecessary?
[ Parent ]
Bad decision on Cooper's part
I know Roy Cooper wants to be governor really bad, but he's going to be waiting around for a little while. Unless Bev Perdue screws up royally between now and 2012, I don't see her vulnerable to a primary challenge. Assuming she serves until 2016, Cooper (who will presumably be in his fourth term as state attorney general) will have a shot at the nomination, but it will surely be a contested primary against Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton. He must really love being AG. Lame.

This is a definite letdown, but like everyone else has pointed out, we don't have a dearth of Democratic elected officials down here in North Carolina. Surely we'll get someone half decent to defeat Burr and take this cursed Senate seat.

On another note, why has the Senate recruitment for the Republicans been deemed such a success by so many media outlets lately? The Hill and Chris Cilizza act like they've hit the jackpot when from my estimation, the only big recruitment success they've had is with Charlie Crist. Portman and Roy Blunt aren't nobodies, but I don't think they can hold those seats. I don't think Mike Castle or Mark Kirk will run in their respective races either. It's just weird.

They are raving about Simmons too
But I think it's obvious that Dodd is at a low point and will likely clobber Simmons by double-digits in the end.
[ Parent ]
I know the Senate isn't a club for the young...
But Rob Simmons is staring 70 right in the face. Same with Mike Castle. Are these old timers supposed to be the fresh new faces of the GOP?

Yeah, Dodd has just been at his lowest point. If the election had been two months ago, he would have lost. By November 2010, I think his standing will have improved significantly. His money alone will probably be enough to take out whomever the Connecticut GOP nominates.  

[ Parent ]
No
It's desperation by Cornyn and the Senate GOP.  They have failed with recruiting in so many races they are trying to get any republican with any chance of winning.  They have no choice but to turn to over the hill congressmen like Castle and Simmons.  All of their expected offensive Senate targets (NV,WI,CA,ND,etc.) have been complete recruiting failures.
[ Parent ]
Somewhat Off-topic
NCDem,

Can you please give some insight into NC politics on the local level? I'm not talking state legislative seats, but more like County Commission, Board of Education, City Council, local seats like that.

Just wondering if NC is heavily Democratic on a local level like GA and AL are or if the GOP has made massive inroads at that level.

Down here in GA, the local level seats are still mostly Democratic, though a lot of these Democrats are very Conservative and tend to vote Republican on statewide races. Still, the local level is the one area the GOP has yet to fully break in this state.

Anyway, I admit to knowing next to nothing about NC except for Shuler, McIntyre, Edwards, Dole, Burr and Helms.

[ Parent ]
Really?
Wasn't aware of that.  Guess I just automatically assumed republicans had taken over control of Georgia at the local level like they have at the state level.  Guess it matter very little.  I'm sure most of the loval democrats are effectively republicans anyway.
[ Parent ]
I still like Grier Martin
Far better then anyone else both politically and ideologically. He's got a perfect profile and I think would make the best Senator. Plus he's young enough that he could either represent the state for 40 years or maybe have a carer in national politics. Think about it. He's young, in the military, has one competitive races already, has the ties to run a competitive statewide race, wouldn't have the conservativeness and establishment problem that other candidates have. If anything he's a much stronger candidate then Hagan was against IMO a weaker opponent. McIntyre and Shuler would be mediocre candidates who would make poor Senators. It would be hard to get exited about Moore or Dalton also. Marshall would be good but I doubt she has interest.

So Martin seems like the best choice by far to me.  

NC-Sen: Cooper Won't Challenge Burr | 59 comments

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