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CA-03: Dems Land a Challenger for Lungren

by: James L.

Wed May 13, 2009 at 1:23 PM EDT


Democrats have scored a legit recruit to take on imperiled GOP Rep. Dan Lungren. From the Sacramento Bee:

Gary Davis, first-term city councilman for Elk Grove, said he will formally announce his candidacy today for the 3rd Congressional District seat held by Republican Rep. Dan Lungren of Gold River.

Davis, who served as Elk Grove mayor in 2008, led a push for greater citizen involvement in city decision-making after his election to the council in 2006.

As a Democrat, he must win in the 2010 California Democratic primary to face Lungren in the general election.

Davis said he began considering a run for the federal seat in mid-2008 after Lungren declined to transmit $11.6 million in funding requests from the city to the subcommittee of the House Committee on Appropriations for consideration. At the time, the congressman's staff said it was determined that Elk Grove's requests were not likely to win approval.

Davis said his final decision to run came in recent weeks after Lungren voted against a bill to authorize grant money to put more cops on the street.

He called running "the right thing to do."

Lungren's 3rd District, once a GOP bastion that went for Bush by 17 points in 2004, has seen some pretty dramatic demographic changes in recent years. Much of its new growth has come from minority demographics, and that sea change is making its mark on the district's voter registration composition.

By the end of 2004, Republicans held a voter registration advantage of 169,464 to the Democrats' 139,848 in the 3rd District. Since then, the district has both hemorrhaged Republicans and added Democrats to its voter rolls; while Republicans still outnumber Democrats here, the margin has been cut to 161K-153K. The cherry on top, of course, was Barack Obama's slim win of the district's presidential vote last November, while Lungren himself only won his race by 5.5% against Democrat Bill Durston (who has opted not to seek a rematch this cycle).

Davis will still have to prove that he's got chops, but with a base in the district's major population anchor, he looks good on paper -- and the broader political winds appear set to give him a fighting chance in 2010.

James L. :: CA-03: Dems Land a Challenger for Lungren
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I hope
That people don't mistake him for Grey Davis.  Their names are very similar.  

Well I had a double-take myself


[ Parent ]
You stole the words right out of my mouth
That was the exact point I wanted to make. My guess is Lungren would just call him Gray Dais out of spite and as a strategy to prevent voters from shifting to Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Worse, it's "Gray Davis" not "Grey"
There is no doubt he will lose a small number of votes to people who pay little attention to politics or are Dyselxic.

[ Parent ]
Me too! Serious suggestion for Gary:
use your middle name, or just about anything else!
Gray Davis' name is still just too toxic in CA. And your name is just too darn similar.

BTW, why is Dan Lungren "imperiled"? PVI R+6, no Obama coattails or turnout to worry about in 2010, & if he looks in danger the RNCC would certainly attempt to rescue him.


[ Parent ]
Funny thing is
Anyone remember whom is was that Gray Davis beat in his first Governor's race general election?  Yep, it was Lungren in a landslide.  The irony...

[ Parent ]
Ahh, werent those the days
When people were talking up Gray Davis as a potential Presidential contender? Given that he was a moderate Governor from California.

[ Parent ]
more irony
Davis was the first Democrat elected to CA Gov since Jerry Brown, way back 16 years earlier.
And who is the most likely (conventional wisdom at the moment) next Gov.?  Jerry Brown.

(So who knows? Maybe Gray can make a comeback in 20-25 years, too)


[ Parent ]
I never unerstood Gray's appeal
I'd barely heard of him until the 2003 recal effort.  I saw him on countless TV shows during the recall affair and he always struck me as a complete political hack with zero charisma.

[ Parent ]
Well
Perhaps "imperiled" is a bit of an overstatement on my part, but he is certainly at-risk over the long-run -- his district, which used to be nearly monolithically white (75%) when it was carved out in redistricting earlier this decade, is not only getting more demographically diverse, it's gaining Democrats at a fast clip and losing Republicans. Perhaps those demographic changes are slowing down, or perhaps not. In any event, this isn't the same district as it was four or even two years ago, and I'm betting it'll change some more by 2010.

[ Parent ]
Here's the number-crunching!
And if we keep up the pace, then hopefully Dems will have the edge in registration going into the 2010 elections!

2004: 43.78% Republicans, 36.13% Democrats (R+7.63)
2006: 42.70% Republicans, 36.14% Democrats (R+6.56)
2008: 39.82% Republicans, 37.63% Democrats (R+2.19)

And just in case anyone's interested, here are Lungren's numbers.

2004: Lungren (R) 62.0%, Castillo (D) 34.8%, Others 3.2% (Lungren +27.2)
2006: Lungren (R) 59.5%, Durston (D) 37.9%, Others 2.6% (Lungren +21.6)
2008: Lungren (R) 49.5%, Durston (D) 45.0%, Others 5.5% (Lungren +4.5)

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
i've never heard of elk grove, but
this kind of angle, where a candidate shows how lundgren's policy hurt his community in particular, can work.  

why is he not still the mayor?


I assume that Elk Grove
like some other cities in California, selects its mayor on a rotating basis from its city council -- just like Debbie Cook in Huntington Beach.

[ Parent ]
Actually, EG might be the largest city in the district
It's ~131K (or was 2007), adding about 50K since 2000, but it's split between the 3rd and the 5th. The largest city totally in the 3rd, Citrus Heights, is about 84K, so it depends where the division between the districts lies and on what side most of the growth has been.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Angelides
Is former California State Treasurer Phil Angelides still considering a run for Lungren's seat?  If he did run, what would his chances be in the primary and in the general election?

Awful
Angelides lost this district by nearly 40% in his race in 2006.

[ Parent ]
Angelides couldn't elected Crocodile kisser
If this Davis guy is married to a sheep he still has a better chance than Angelides.

[ Parent ]
It could be worse
It could be that Georgia gubernatorial candidate who's admitted to having sex with a horse.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Sounds like a good catch
I'm hoping 2010 is the year Democrats finally bust California wide open the way they did in New York over the past few cycles.  Right now we have a nice 34-19 majority, which sounds reasonable, but if you look at Dem performance in each district, it becomes apparent that tons of districts are packed with 70-90% Democrats, whereas most of the GOP seats Obama either won or came within 5% of winning.

In short, we can do better, even without an aggressive gerrymander.  The current map was a bipartisan incumbent protection map, just as New York's was back in 2002, and we still managed to tear the lid off NY, so I'm hopeful it can be done here as well.  We could easily knock Republicans down to like 10 seats in California even without gerrymandering.


I like thinking of what we can do without gerrymandering first
and if we can get our candidates in, under unfavorable turf, all the better.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Agreed.
That is why I outlined the eight Obama-Republican House districts, as well as the competitive state legislature districts and I suggest we target them now. I am working with Take Back Red California on identifying how much the Dem nominees in the Obama-Republican districts underperformed Obama and how we can get more registered Dems and unaffiliated voters to pay more attention to the downballot races.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]

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