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NY-Sen-B: Israel Set to Challenge Gillibrand?

by: DavidNYC

Mon May 11, 2009 at 2:11 PM EDT


A couple of slightly differing reports. The NY Post says:

Long Island Congressman Steve Israel will announce plans to challenge US Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in next year's Democratic primary as early as tomorrow, several sources said yesterday.

The Suffolk County Democrat, who was first elected to Congress in 2000 and is a member of the Appropriations Committee, told several members of the state's congressional delegation of his plans to challenge Gillibrand late Friday, congressional sources revealed.

Glenn Thrush at the Politico says Israel will form an exploratory committee rather than launch a formal challenge. These days, that seems to be a distinction without a difference - I haven't crunched any numbers, but it sure feels like many if not most prominent exploratory committees turn into the real thing. An Israel spokesman, though, is denying that there is any sort of announcement planned for this week.

Supposedly, Carolyn Maloney will soon create an exploratory committee, too. I imagine if one or both of these folks get in, Carolyn McCarthy will bow out, citing her desire to see someone younger challenge Gillibrand (she's older than both Maloney and Israel). But if either Israel or Maloney are to have any chance, I can't imagine Gillibrand would be beatable in a three-way race. Someone's gonna have to give.

Meanwhile, Chuck Schumer, who was busy declaring the other day there would be no primary, is now supposedly backing off. David Paterson is also apparently staying out of things, though if I were Kirsten Gillibrand, I'm not sure I'd want him within a hundred yards of the campaign van. If anything, suggests a canny Maloney confidant, Gillibrand might be forced to support Paterson, since he is her recent patron, after all.

Anyhow, open seat fans & worry-warts: Obama pounded McCain 56-43 in Israel's suburban Long Island district (NY-02), but its PVI nonetheless fell to D+4 from D+8. Given how Long Island has turned over the last fifteen years, the Dems would have an advantage in any open seat race here. McCarthy's NY-04, at D+6, would be fairly similar. Maloney's NY-14, however, would be a mortal lock for the Dems (D+26).
DavidNYC :: NY-Sen-B: Israel Set to Challenge Gillibrand?
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NY-Sen-B: Israel Set to Challenge Gillibrand? | 75 comments
I'm with Gillibrand.
She's voted very well in the Senate. I don't see the point of a primary, beyond the upstate/downstate thing, which I will never understand.
Agreed
Complete waste of money.
[ Parent ]
Just like Sestak
this isn't a challenge about ideology.  Some people (gasp) want to be Senators, and they would rather take a 20% shot at being a Senator than remain a House member.

Taking on appointed incumbents is a good thing for the party.  Unless there are four or more serious candidates, the winner will normally be a solid candidate for the longterm.

We shouldn't just roll over and accept Patterson or Ritter's choice as the best people to represent a state.  

[ Parent ]
Sestak would be totally ideological
I agree though that this is all about ambition. The concern is all that New York money could be going towards defeating Republicans across the country.  
[ Parent ]
No, he was going to run anyway
Sestak just wants to be a Senator.  Obviously he has different positions than Specter, but that isn't what is driving him to consider running.

new York and Pennsylvania senate seats don't just pop up every five minutes, and they are very powerful positions where an ambitious person can basically be paid attention to for decades.

We are seeing this term the last vestiges of "annointing" replacements.  In the intant media Internet age, ambitious people are just not going to say, "Oh, okay, I guess I didn't really spend my whole adult life plotting to be a Senator... I'll just let that other person do it."

Appointees will be run against more, and they really should be, even if in the NY case it's a lot of money being spent on more or less interchangeable people.

[ Parent ]
Ambition's part and parcel
Ideology is pretty much never the only reason for seeking a promotion to the Senate. It's just sometimes part of the mix.

Sestak wants to be a senator, but if he's willing to run an explicitly ideological campaign to accomplish his ambition that's almost as good as a campaign that's primarily about ideology.

[ Parent ]
Gillibrand was my first choice for the Seat
and here we are months later, and I am still happy I got my first choice. She has voted correctly, moved left, and has charisma (see her CNN Mother' Day interview). If she holds on this year, she is going to be a future party leader.

Go Kirstin!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
She wasn't my nth choice
but given how she has voted and behaved, there is no need for a primary.  None whatsoever.

[ Parent ]
I was a sceptic at first.
But given how she voted and that we actually managed to hold NY-20, I think it was a very good choice in retrospect.  
[ Parent ]
I don't get it either
There are plenty of other open seats and primaries that are more important, like Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, Connecticut, and Nevada are worthwhile primary challenges. Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, and New Hampshire are important pickups as well. New York is too expensive, and Gillibrand has a better voting record so far than Schumer does.
[ Parent ]
Nevada?
Do you honestly think that there is a snowball's chance in hell of any Democrat successfully primarying the Senate Leader?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
It would cost a fraction of New York
to do that.  
[ Parent ]
Against the Senate Majority Leader?
Seriously, do you know how much money was spent in 2004 in South Dakota for the Republicans to knock off Daschle? It would still require tens of millions of dollars to do it, and good luck trying to line up any Democratic donors to take on this suicide run.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
No chance in hell
Reid is nowhere near as vulnerable as so many suggest.  Not in the general and definately not in the primary.
[ Parent ]
His poll numbers are weak, and he's a bad leader
I want Dick Durbin or anybody else to be Majority Leader. Nevada isn't that expensive, and even an unsucessful primary may get Reid to become a better majority leader.
[ Parent ]
I don't think you understand something here
A cheap media market is lovely and all, but you seem to be following a bad fallacy, namely that a cheap media market presumes that a Senate race will be cheap. In 2004, do you know where the most expensive senate race happened? South Dakota, where Daschle and Thune spent a combined $35 million. And South Dakota is certainly cheaper to advertise in than Nevada. Already Harry Reid has raised $2 million for this cycle (which is the second highest, only below Gillibrand) and has $5 million CoH (which is the fifth highest on the list) and that number will only get higher. A primary challenge to Harry Reid would easily cost a challenger $10 million, because they would have to contend with the Senate Majority Leader who could, at the drop of a hat, raise millions of dollars as well as probably get the Party to blow some scratch in the state (the DSCC is, above all else, an incumbent protection racket, and particularly when that incumbent is the Senate Leader). Trust me when I say that you aren't going to get a primary who could raise the kind of money necessary to take on the Democratic Senate Leader nor will that person be able to get any real sway with the Democratic machine in Nevada (which Reid pretty much controls).

I don't get why you can't see this, it's not that difficult a concept to understand.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Wow, it was $35 mil in SD in 04?
Didnt realize it was that much. A stiff challenge to Reid would bring more than $35 mil in Clark County alone.
[ Parent ]
Dick Durbin wouldn't be any better
honestly, he wouldn't. Senate leaders are notoriously anti-partisan. The Senate is designed purposely to be a check on populism and stop partisanship. You're never gonna get a progressive forcefull majority leader, not out of Reid, Durbin or Schumer because the Senate is designed purposely to make the left and the right equally angry.

There was a reason why our founding fathers designed it to be the body not directly elected by the people.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Mitch McConnell
is a forceful wingnut minority leader.  Quite frankly, he's the most partisan Senate leader I've ever seen.  We really need someone similar, not the wuss Reid.  

I actually think Schumer would be a forceful tough partisan as majority leader.

[ Parent ]
Connecticut?
Dodd's in a deep hole right now, although I'm not convinced that his polling won't begin to rebound like in a New Jersey race.

Nevertheless, primarying him isn't the solution. That would divide the base, cost a lot of money (CT is a very expensive media market) and worst of all spark a lot of 'Democrats divided' headlines and give Lieberman the opportunity to pontificate on every television channel.

Besides, Blumenthal wouldn't go for it, just as he wouldn't challenge Holy Joe.

If Dodd can't win, the way to remove him is through a quiet word in his ear and an appointment to a senior administration position.

[ Parent ]
And then we lose the seat to a republican
Governor Jodi Rell is a republican, so if Dodd drops out, a republican will replace him. I'd like to see Dodd keep his seat since he's been one a good democrat on most issues, but current poll numbers show him to be the most vulnerable democrat currently, unless he does something to turn that around, we're screwed.
[ Parent ]
Why would we lose the seat to a Republican?
Rell isn't running and she'd have an easier time winning against Dodd than an open seat.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Being governor,
Rell would get to appoint Dodd's replacement if he were picked for a cabinet position. Connecticut is not one of those states where the governor is not required to chose somebody of the same party as the previous incumbent, unlike Arizona, Hawaii, and Wyoming.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I was assuming
the deal would be for Dodd to retire and then be given an administration position in 2011.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
I cant see
Obama offering him an Administration post with all the controversy surrounding him. He may be willing to compliment him and even raise cash and campaign for him but definitely not offer a post. Even though hed probably get confirmed by his Senate peers (if its a post where hed need to be confirmed)
[ Parent ]
That's a good point
We'd only lose, I think, if she nominated herself.  All the other prominent Rs or I-leaning Rs (Weicker, who may now be a D) are out of the picture.  

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
And if she appointed herself to an open seat,
She might not even get re-elected, since the Senate is almost guaranteed to be more partisan than a governorship, and because she'd look like crap to appoint herself.

Not to mention it'd be Michael Fedele serving as CT Gov.  And I hadn't ever even heard of this guy before.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Simmons only looks good in the polls at the moment
Right now most people in CT outsie of the 2nd district don't know who he is.  So it's basically generic repub vs. Dodd.  Once the ad blitz hits Simmons on being nothing more than a lapdog for Dubya it'll become Bushbot vs. Dodd and Dodd will wipe the floor with him.
[ Parent ]
Someone at MyDD gave his reasoning
As I said over at dailykos, I know more believe her than I do Specter. The way to keep pressure is if she has a primary candidate to guarantee that she means what she says.

Of course the person who said that is one of the biggest egos on the site and tried to convince me in January that Gillibrand would stand in the way of everything Obama wants to do and he's not the type of person to ever admit he's wrong.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I'll be the first to admit I wasn't a Gillibrand fan
But even if I bought into the logic that a primary challenge is right now necessary to keep her honest (I'm not) I don't quite get the logic of supporting someone like McCarthy or Israel.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
That guy is bullshitting actually
Here's what he said on Dkos;

I know more trust youthan I trust Specter (0 / 0)
You are saying this to win office, nd the minute you are in office, you will stab us in the back. Just becaue you have a lot of fools here who do not undertand politcs does not mean we are all equally clueless about the nature of how these things work.

He's not interested in a primary challenge to keep the pressure on Gillibrand, he's interested in a primary challenge because he doesn't like her.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
No particular harm in that
That's the most fundamental reason for a primary challenge. And since not many people seem to share that view, I'd say go for it. Gillibrand's going to win so having a primary challenger, like Tasini did for Clinton in 2006, will act as a pressure valve.

All of the above, of course, will be rapidly taken back by me if it looks like Israel or McCarthy might win. I don't trust them on fiscal policy.

[ Parent ]
What a waste of effort and money
There is no need for a primary of Gillibrand.
Still think this is a fool's errand
for any incumbent Democratic Congressman.

She's got buckets of money and the establishment behind her (though both the popular (Schumer) and unpopular (Paterson) parts).  That's not in and of itself insurmountable (see Lieberman, Joe) but she's not giving prospective liberal challengers any openings in her Senate voting record (and I don't forsee a great deal of traction making issue of her House record, which was calibrated to a much smaller constituency).

If nothing else, such a challenge to Gillibrand, assuming she made it through (which I think is pretty likely; she's got the aforementioned money, and is very telegenic), wouldn't damage her GE chances; no Republican is going to come at her from the left.

On the other hand, I'd be very concerned if Israel or whoever succeeded in upsetting her and it being perceived as NYC metro giving the finger to the upstate.  That could be harmful to Democratic prospects there.

A Blue Dog challenging a Blue Dog?
Israel was a prominent member of the Blue Dogs until he put his name in to be considered for Hillary's Senate seat, he left the Blue Dogs immediately.

Of course he never really voted with him often, but neither did Gillibrand.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
She's also close to Cuomo
so put him down too.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I don't see what Steve's angle against KG is
It's hard to see how he would be any more appealing to the primary electorate than her.  
couldn't he say that we need another white guy in the US Senate
or maybe someone who is more "pro-Israel?"
[ Parent ]
* facepalm *


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
He's not from Upstate


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Maloney, not Israel
Israel is the male, Long Island, version of Gillibrand.  Maloney can provide a clear alternative to Gillibrand.  Stay in your seat, Israel.
he hopes to run
against two women.  That's his possible edge.  Straight up against Gillibrand he'd lose.
[ Parent ]
An interesting theory
But to me, Maloney-Israel-Gillibrand feels a lot more like two downstaters vs. an upstater than two women vs. one guy.
[ Parent ]
A local Democratic Party official
here in Queens is saying Israel's threat to run is meant to split the vote and prevent a city Democrat from beating Gillibrand...which seems a little paranoid to me...especially considering Schumer has a ton of pull in Brooklyn and Queens and that, plus her supporters in gay rights groups, would only help Gillibrand in the city.

Other than that, I'm not sure what Israel brings to the table except he's from downstate, which seems to be the only issue I'm hearing from Democrats about Gillibrand.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Why would he give up
his House seat for a threat?  Unless he was running in both primaries (can you do that?).
[ Parent ]
Don't get the Downstate/Upstate thing
Here in IL, splitting our Senators between Chicagoans and Downstaters has been a pretty okay way to keep the peace.

Are NYC politicians just getting greedy, or is this a function of NYC's much greater size?

[ Parent ]
NYC owns it already
Senator Schumer is from Brooklyn, NYC.
Gov Patterson is from Harlem, NYC.
Lt Gov is vacant.
AG Cuomo is from Queens, NYC.
Comptroller DiNapoli is from Long Island.
Senator Gillibrand was a corporate lawyer in NYC
before getting elected to Congress from the district where she had her exurban home and near her, and her grandparent's, Albany roots.

I don't feel any need for NYC to have another Senator who is even more a city candidate than the appointed incumbent.

[ Parent ]
In California
though I have seen a lot of NorCal/SoCal rivalry on nonpolitical message boards, we don't seem to have as big an issue with one side being too dominant in our politicians. Even though SoCal is more populous than NorCal and both Senators and the House Speaker are all from NorCal, I haven't heard many fellow SoCal'ers making a big fuss. I guess it's because we have more balance in our state's leaders.

Gov Schwarzenegger = Hollywood, which everyone knows (SoCal)
LG Garamendi = Formerly northern Central Valley, which he represented in the state legislature; now in CA-10 (NorCal)
SoS Bowen = South Bay (SoCal)
AG Jerry Brown = Oakland (NorCal)
Treasurer Lockyer = Suburban Alameda County (NorCal)
Controller Chiang = Torrance (SoCal)
Ins. Comm. Poizner = Silicon Valley (NorCal)
School Sup. O'Connell = Ventura County (Central Coast though close to SoCal)
Senate Leader Darrell Steinberg = Sacramento (NorCal)
Assembly Speaker Karen Bass = L.A. (SoCal)

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
NYC has dominated
for so long that giving it up now is hard.

The last Governor from outside the metropolitan area was FDR, the last Senator, Charles Goodell from Jamestown...the last one elected was Ken Keating from Rochester.

Recently, the Lt. Governors have usually been from upstate; Mary Donohue from Rensselear or Stan Ludine from Jamestown.

The last upstate official elected statewide (other than Lt. Gov) was, I believe, Dennis Vacco, Attorney General from 1995-1999, from Buffalo.

It's pretty much a good assumption whoever the Democratic nominee for Governor is, he will pick an upstate Lt. Governor. Paterson was rumored to want Syracuse Mayor Matthew Driscoll. If the primary gets ugly, race is a problem and Cuomo wins, he could pick Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Gillibrand really is adapting well
Check out her post on Daily Kos today in support of a public healthcare plan.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

Schumer "feels personally responsible "
N.Y.'s Junior Senator Gains a Defender: The Senior Senator  

Mr. Schumer ...  has elevated his profile by helping his party pull off a string of Senate victories, and he  feels personally responsible for blocking Republicans from capturing a seat in his state.

Mr. Schumer has concluded that Ms. Gillibrand, a tireless fund-raiser and campaigner, is capable of holding onto the seat, provided she does not have to go through a bruising primary, according to his associates.
"In almost every case when there's a primary it makes it harder for the Democrat to win the general," he said in an interview.


I don't think I'd bet against Schumer re a primary. Those NY pols would have to be pretty gutsy to go against him.
As if by magic, they'll all probably find a reason to not jump into the Senate race.

Also, I hadn't realized this, but way back in 2005, Schumer was a behind-the-scenes force in Gillibrand's win over the Repub incumbent Sweeney:

... during workouts at the House gym, he also urged Rahm Emanuel, who was then in charge of the Congressional Democrats' campaign committee, to pour money into her race.
"Rahm eventually bought into the program," Mr. Schumer said.

Yeah I remember this
I was interviewing for a job as field organizer for Judy Aydelott's campaign in NY-19 in April, 2006 and I remember the campaign manager telling me tht Schumer made the DSCC understand that they needed to win two seats in New York to take back the majority. At the time, I assumed he was talking about NY-24 (Sherry Boehlert's open seat where Mike Arcuri seemed to have a lock) and NY-03 (Meijias seemed like he would beat King early on), but instead he said it was NY-20 and NY-19. I remember him saying Schumer had told the DSCC that the main focus should be on the two Hudson Valley seats.

I met a Schumer aide in early September, 2006 who told me Democrats were guaranteed to win at least 2 seats, possibly as many as 7. The 2 sure things were NY-24 and NY-20; "Arcuri will win Boehlert's seat and Gillibrand will beat Sweeney"

The powers that be knew early on Gillibrand would beat Sweeney. I was never so sure and, if I remember correctly, neither were we.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Fascinating
Meijias seemed like he would beat King

Incorrect. Mejias didn't get into the race until the end of May, 2006 - at least a month after your meeting. And please don't say something like, "Well, everyone knew he was running." He wasn't. David Denenberg was our candidate, and he didn't declare until May... and then dropped out two days later.

Anyhow, I never, ever heard a single person say anything like this before. Mejias got a late start against an entrenched incumbent who had $1.3 million on hand. Mejias did well, don't get me wrong - but no one thought he was anything but an underdog. NY-03 never made it past Likely R in Cook's ratings.

Anyhow, why on earth would Schumer and the DSCC be counting House seats? And why would they have any special crystal ball about John Sweeney, and start cracking out of turn about expectations?

Immediately after the only detailed mention of Gillibrand in The Thumpin' - literally the next paragraph - the author says "Emanuel once again bemoaned the high expectations that surrounded the Democrats' campaign." Anyone who pretended to have special insights into that race two months before election day was doing just that - pretending. Same with NY-19.

[ Parent ]
I probably should've added
that it was my own personal assumption, as a Hofstra University senior, that NY-03 was one of the two seats, because I knew he was getting in and was to have Jay Jacobs behind him (I was still working for Nassau County Democrats at the time coming out of Suozzi's reelection campaign). I assume since the machine was behind Meijias is why Denenberg dropped out. In my interviews with people at the DCCC, they never thought King was even vulnerable...I, personally, thought Meijias would beat King.

They didn't think Gillibrand would beat Sweeney (I meant DCCC btw, not DSCC), but from my interview with Aydelott's campaign, the DCCC was eyeing NY-20 and NY-19 as the two seats they'd NEED to win to take back the House...they weren't so sure in April that they would win them and win the House at all.

It was in the fall that I got the news from state Democrats that they were sure Gillibrand would win, so they were looking at her early on and saw her as a potential victor.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Nope
Denenberg dropped out for legitimate health reasons. He had throat surgery and wasn't able to speak for a month afterward. Can't exactly campaign like that.
[ Parent ]
hmm
Denenberg v. Meijias would have been an interesting primary.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Health Reasons
As DavidNYc points out Mejias didn't jump in till late May when Denenberg had to drop out due to health reasons.  There were talks in Dec 05/Jan 06 about Mejias possibly entering the race, but he gave way to Denenberg who had more experience. Mejias ran an excellent campaign, but if he was able to get in the race in early 06 we may have seen a very different result.  Its really hard to knock off an incumbent as entrenched as King when you start around Memorial Day.
[ Parent ]
Gag
Please no.  Steve Israel would be an even worse senator.
He's be much worse
This would be a primary challenge to Gillibrand from the right.
[ Parent ]
yes
That's exactly right.  If Israel is her major challenger, Gillibrand is going to tack to the left over the next year or so to head him off.  That sounds good to me.  It's not crazy to think that she could be the left's clear choice by primary day vs. Israel.

I'm not sure what happens if she has TWO NYC/LI challengers, other than that she probably wins in that case...

[ Parent ]
Not what I've heard at all
I'm not saying Israel is any kind of progressive standard-bearer - far from it. But the only hope would be to run to her left. I'd be very, very surprised if he got in and tried to run to her right.
[ Parent ]
Maybe
But, David, I don't think it's in his nature to go to Gillibrand's left and he'd look like just as much of an opportunist, if not more (as defined by her Senate votes).  McCarthy would have difficulty in the same way, except on gun control.  Maloney would have a shot, being a long-time progressive or near-progressive.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
I can't see how he can run to the left
without looking like he's pandering...and the Democrats he's trying to win over are those who think Gillibrand is pandering.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Israel would run to her left
I don't see how Israel would run to her right, considering his record in the house has pretty much been as your typical downstate liberal.  He may have been a member of the Blue Dogs, but that doesn't change the fact his record has been fairly liberal.
[ Parent ]
But not much more liberal
than Gillibrand's House record...and even then only recently. Israel voted with Bush often early on...because he had to, Bush was popular on Long Island until about mid 2004.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Still further left
Even if his early years in the House, Israel was still further left than what Gillibrand was in the House, his record the last few years was quite a bit more liberal than Gillibrand's.
[ Parent ]
Non-starters
Israel might dominate on Long Island, but I can't see him making headway in NYC and since he'd be attacking from the right he'd have very little in the way of activist support.

Maloney, meanwhile, is a limousine liberal. LI would probably prefer Gillibrand to her and the same is true of some bits of the city (Weiner and MacMahon's districts spring to mind). And Gillibrand hasn't put a foot wrong, so she couldn't corner the activist support either.

If there's going to be a successful primary, it needs an issue and it needs the support of either progressive groups or big donors. All there is right now is geography, which might be enough for an open seat, but not for a challenge.

Maloney also might have an age problem
Rightly or wrongly.
[ Parent ]
Schumer's playing hardball hehe
Israel is an ally of his. I take this an explicit threat to Maloney: Run, and the downstate vote will be fairly effectively split.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
Israel Would Be Fine
I think Israel would make a fine senator. He's got political smarts, and he's progressive enough. He's very good on energy issues, which seem particularly important to him.

That's not to say that Gillibrand would not or does not make a good senator. She has adapted some of her views to satisfy her new statewide constituency. One can argue about whether those those shifts should be characterized as as flips or as a proper function of someone in a representative democracy. I think Israel would have fewer changes in position. For some people, it may not matter as long as the voting outcomes are what voters prefer; others may want more consistency.

Also, I'm tired of the upstate/downstate, gender, ethnicity stuff. Should it really be so hard to just vote for the person who we think is going to do the best job? If it's two people from downstate, fine. If it's two people from upstate, that's good with me too. Or two men. Or two women. Buy I'll take actual or potential job performance over any of those other factors.

Good point
Gillibrand has moved a bit further left as she has taken a hold in the senate.  However, how much of it is flip flopping for political posturing, how much of it is natural change?  And, once the worry of the Primaries are over will she keep up her more recent liberal record or will she head back a bit to being a bit more conservative like she was in the house?  Its hard to say because she has moved in her positions, Israel meanwhile has had more of a constant liberal record.
[ Parent ]
NY-2
If Israel does decide to jump in, look the Majority Leader of the Suffolk County legislator, Jon Cooper, (D-Lloyd Harbor) who has also expressed interest in the Senate seat to set his sights on the open seat in NY-2.  Cooper, btw is openly gay and recently married his longtime partner in Connecticut.
Would he be the 1st openly gay U.S. Rep from NY?
I would guess so. Thatd be a great achievement for the LGBT community and himself personally.
[ Parent ]
Assuming he does become the Rep.
Im sure there will be a competitive Dem primary and possibly a competitive GE.
[ Parent ]
GE wouldn't be an issue
Its a pretty solid Democratic district, Obama won the district by 13, on top of that the GOP has absolutely no bench in the district.  As far as a Primary goes, I don't see other Dems jumping in unless Cooper doesn't.  If Cooper doesn't run, Assemblyman Phil Ramos might make a run, but I don't see him or any serious Dems going after the seat if Cooper does.
[ Parent ]
NY-Sen-B: Israel Set to Challenge Gillibrand? | 75 comments

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