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ID-01: Top GOP Recruit Bows Out

by: James L.

Sat May 09, 2009 at 2:05 PM EDT


The Idaho GOP has lost its top choice to run against frosh Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick. Idaho state Treasurer Ron Crane has decided not to run for Congress despite sounding like a candidate earlier in the week. From the Idaho Press-Tribune:

Nampa resident and Idaho Treasurer Ron Crane has decided against running for Walt Minnick's 1st District U.S. Congressional seat in 2010.

Crane, a Republican, told the Idaho Press-Tribune Friday he had made the decision not to run.

"I seriously explored it," Crane said. "I have come to the conclusion not to run."

Crane spent the last week hobnobbing with the GOP braintrust in DC, and now I have to wonder if he wasn't sufficiently impressed by the sorry state of affairs in the Boehner caucus. So make that one bullet dodged for Walt Minnick... but there are undoubtedly plenty more to come.

James L. :: ID-01: Top GOP Recruit Bows Out
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Minnick's not off the hook by any stretch
Minnick may have dodged a bullet with Crane opting out, but there are going to be GOP challengers lining up to challenge him (former Rep. Bill Sali, AG Lawrence Wasden, state Sen. John McGee, etc.)

This improves Bill Sali's
chances of winning the primary greatly. But even against Sali Minnick would only have a 75% chance of winning, and only then if he ran another great campaign like he did last year. Looking at the history of congressional races, Democrats have preformed better in Presidential years for some reasons, despite coattails.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

I don't know if I agree with that
Sali's only chance of winning the primary is if the field is very crowded. And there are a lot of GOPers looking to run, as a commenter above said... For one top-tier Republican to bow out increases the odds of a smaller field, which should not help Sali.

[ Parent ]
i disgagree
I think that he was the GOP's best chance of clearing the field and with his profile he would have likely easily dispatched Sali. With him gone the field is wide open for a bunch of lesser profile local Republicans to run allowing Sali to win by with his about 35% base of popularity.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
he was a former Congressman
he probably has a strong base to work off of.

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
He only managed 60% in the 2008 primary against a neophyte opponent who only raised about $70,000. Someone like the state Attorney General with a high enough profile should be able to pull enough support together to beat Sali this time regardless of how split the primary is.

[ Parent ]
which is why its good that
one prominent statewide official has dropped off. he was perhaps the Republicans best shot at getting a strong unified figure against Sali, who, with CfG help could probably easily get 40% of the vote in a split field with weak Republicans.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
But wow,
a rare weekend news dump.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Come on Club for Growth
You know you want to funnel in large amounts of cash to Sali again.

The DC Voting rights act ...
... currently moving thru the legislature would add a full congressional seat to not only DC, but to Utah as well.
Even if this bill fails to pass, Utah is likely to gain a seat after the 2010 census.

Does anyone think that that may play a part in the strategy of deciding whether to run against Minnock or to keep your powder dry for a run at a future open seat?


unless idaho loses a seat
i don't think utah losing a seat will have an effect on anyone in idaho.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
you mean gaining?
For some reason Idaho misses the chance to gain another seat. They are like the third fastest growing state for this decade but they still missed it.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Yep
From all I've read Idaho will fall far short of getting a 3rd seat in 2012, but is almost guaranteed to get it in 2022.

[ Parent ]
In all probability, it will be a Republican seat
from Pennsylvania that it gets.  

[ Parent ]
Probably
Though I have heard that Idaho is seeing more Democrats moving in in recent years.  It's not out of the question than in a decade or two the state may get a bit more favorable for Dems.

[ Parent ]
well the thing that happens is
the Boise area is increasingly becoming a high tech industry area, and its getting lots of liberal emigrants from the west coast, even Canyon County, once a bastion, is bluening, Obama improved like 12 percentage points there and Minnick held Sali to a shocking 57%. Ada County, (Boise), is moving Democratic even faster. Those areas, if they turned pretty blue, could really make idaho competitive.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure I follow you
Are you under the mistaken impression that Walt Minnick represents a district in Utah?

[ Parent ]
are you talking to me or antoo?
antoo mentioned the dc voting act and utah, which didn;t make sense since minnick's from idaho.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Antoo
I know you can tell your states apart, Doug. :)

[ Parent ]
Well
I've seen Utah's plans to invade Idaho for the express purpose of stealing its congressional district in case they don't get their district :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
DGM WINS.
CONQUERALITY.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
I bet you're thinking of Jim Matheson in Utah.

Well, for what it's worth,
Crane would be going from Idaho statewide office to U.S. House minority caucus freshman.  Probably not the rosiest of deals.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


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