From a purely tactical perspective

a strong challenge to Specter in the Dem primary would be good for the Democrats because it would help Toomey.

Assume that the Republicans get their best-case scenario and Tom Ridge enters the primary to fight Toomey.  If there's no significant action in the Dem primary, moderate voters looking for something to do (the same guys who registered to vote in the 2008 Dem presidential primaries because there was nothing going on in the Republican) will gravitate toward the Republican race, and they would overwhelmingly support Ridge over Toomey, bolstering him in a fight that would otherwise seem pretty tough.

Quite outside the merits of either candidate, a Sestak v. Specter battle would keep voters that Ridge would desperately need away from the Republican primary.

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by: SC @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 17:42:49 PM UTC

PA has closed primaries

And unlike the once-in-a-lifetime presidential race last year, I tend to doubt that a whole lot of people would change their registrations just to vote for Tom Ridge in a primary.

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 17:54:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA has a history of party switching

In 2002, a bunch of Philadelphia-area Republics switched to vote for Ed Rendell over Bob Casey in the gubernatorial primary.  In 2004, a large number of them (and others) switched back to vote for Specter over Toomey.  Many, many were registered as Democrats for by the 2004 general and those we missed likely got swept up for the 2008 primary.

While I wouldn't rule it out (particularly not in the Western-PA area that is more of Ridge's base and where the underlying trends are D-to-R), the fact that there likely will be competitive gubernatorial primaries (including Western PA's own Dan Onorato) in 2010 will mitigate this.

Two other points that people have missed -- the Pennsylvania sore loser law and the difficulty of qualifying third-party candidates for the ballot in Pennsylvania.  In all likelihood there will not be a Pennsylvania for Specter or Pennsylvania for Ridge party unless the move is made ASAP -- whomever it is (Specter/Sestak v Toomey/Ridge) will have a straight-up vote.

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by: PhillyDem @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 18:31:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I question the accuracy of this poll

I almost think that this poll is here to give the GOP a feeling that Toomey is possibly electable.  I don't see how he is.  If this poll is accurate, Toomey could counter Ridge and say that he's within distance of Specter, and that Ridge is too outside of GOP mainstream to consider him a viable candidate with the GOP's best interest in hand.

Is Ridge a type of guy who would consider running as an Independent?  I wonder how a three-way race between Toomey/Specter/Ridge would look like.  I doubt that this is remotely possible, but it would make things interesting.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 17:58:20 PM UTC

PA

Why have none of these polls polled the primaries of

Sestak
Torsella
Specter

Specter
Sestak

Specter
Torsella

Toomey
Ridge

Toomey
Gerlach

Toomey
Gerlach
Ridge

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 18:04:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

specter/ridge/toomey?

a rino, a dino and a wingnut. yuck.  at that point a liberal congressman might as well run and see what happens.  in a four person race, especially where three are republicans in a democratic state, anything can happen.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 18:58:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FWIW

I am glad to see Toomey get some encouraging poll numbers.  He's much weaker than Ridge and probably much weaker than Gerlach.  If it looks completely hopeless, the GOP establishment will only be encouraged to get someone else to run and beat Toomey in the primary.  Whether we have Specter or Sestak, I'd rather face Toomey.

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by: sicembears @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 18:19:08 PM UTC

a double Lieberman?

if Specter gets a tough Dem primary opponent, maybe he'll pull a double Lieberman and switch AGAIN to run as an independent. Anybody know if PA law would allow that (and what the dates would be)?

I'd bet a lot of money that Specter is at least thinking through that option. His basic view seems to be: I can win a general election, so it's not fair for me to lose in a primary.  

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by: JR12 @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 18:58:34 PM UTC

PA law on independent candidates

For Specter to run as an independent he needs to do the following:

1.  NOT be a candidate for nomination in the primary
2.  File a huge number of signatures (est. 200,000) by early August 2010

It is unclear what it means to not be a candidate, specifically whether one can ever have been a candidate.  Some possible threshholds -- the announcement of candidacy (tbd), the circulation of party nominating petitions (February 2010), the filing of petitions (early March), withdraw without a court order (allowed until late March) or withdraw with a court order (in theory, up until Election Day).  I SUSPECT that the right interpretation is that the sore loser provision kicks in once the petitions are filed, but that is not certain.

I can't recall a statewide Independent candidate.  Even qualification of a new party for the Greens was insanely difficult.  

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by: PhillyDem @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 20:26:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Specter

His basic view seems to be: I can win a general election

But has he done that before without labor support?
That said, if the only other choice in Nov. is Toomey or Ridge, where else could labor really go (apart from sitting this one out)?

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by: homerun @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 20:50:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The latter

They'd just sit this out.  I'm almost sure of it.  If I were them, I'd be inclined to.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 21:07:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't buy this poll

There's no way Toomey could even come close to Specter. Not unless he sweeps the west in a way that a Republican never has in a competitive election.

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by: andgarden @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 19:17:08 PM UTC