Well, here's what he's thinking, I guess

1. Eventually he's either going to be defeated or simply drawn out of his seat.

2. There's a non-zero chance that he might actually get to run against Roland Burris.

I think #2 is pretty close to impossible, but #1 seems likely. For him, why not go for the gold. Personally, I'm not too worried, though.

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by: andgarden @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 21:28:20 PM UTC

And

And even if Kirk could manage to continue to squeak by in his new post-2010 redrawn district, what would be his prize for that effort? It's being in the near-powerless House minority. and not even in any leadership role.
So go for it, man!

Wow, an open D+6 seat sure would be a big gift for us.

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by: homerun @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:09:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Those Madigan numbers

are impressive.

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 21:52:32 PM UTC

This could all go south

if Dan Seals squeeks by, based on name recognition, in a multi-candidate primary.  For whatever reason, the voters in this district don't seem to like him very much.  

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by: jward373 @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:04:36 PM UTC

Seals

I don't think thats fair.....he;'s gotten what, 45% or more both times against Kirk.  I'm not sure anyone else would have done any better.  

Its not that they don't like Seals, they just like Kirk better.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:11:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama got 61% in IL-10

and with huge coat tails like that, Seals still got trounced that badly? In a D+6 district? Sorry, but that's a terrible performance.

Hopefully we'll have a better candidate this time. Obama won't be on the ballot to help with coat tails (but OTOH neither will Kirk, assuming he jumps to the Senate race, of course).

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by: homerun @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:27:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I do think

Seals isn't the strongest candidate, but I don't think you can write-off this seat if he ultimately wins the primary(if he runs). Yes 2006 was the banner Dem year, and in 08 he had the coattails of Obama and to a lesser extent Dick Durbin and he still couldn't pull it off. But I don't think you can underestimate the impact Kirk had on this.

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by: safi @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:49:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe, Maybe Not

I too think it is unfair to just assume Seals is a bad candidate because he got beat in an Obama district.  By all accounts Kirk is very popular and entrenched in the district.  When facing popular incumbents, lots of challengers underperform the top of the ticket by margins greater than what Seals did.  For example, Allen underperformed Obama in Maine by 40 points!  Yet Allen had good favorables, was the incumbent rep for half the state, and is the current establishment favorite to run for governor.  So he's hardly a terrible candidate.

Show me a poll where Seals had high negatives or where Kirk had mediocre negatives such that he should have been vulnerable and then you'll have evidence to support your theory.  Otherwise, it's just speculation.

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by: sicembears @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:54:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

While I don't think Seals is

some sort of awful candidate, though maybe three times is a little much, Allen isn't a great example.  I read more than once that his Senate run was more to position himself for governor than anything, and that he was a terrible candidate in the Senate race (i.e. didn't give it his all) for that reason.

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by: wmlawman @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:50:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A third rematch is too much.

I agree that Seals has had his chances.  Maybe he's a bad candidate; maybe he's a good candidate but just not good enough.  Regardless, if Kirk stays, I'd rather someone else take a shot.  If Kirk jumps, however, I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with Seals running again.

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by: sicembears @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 03:53:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

exactly

Seals had his shot at the seat and he simply wasn't good enough to beat Kirk.  Just like Burner couldn't beat Reichert.  Give these guys an open seat and they win it handily methinks.  

If Kirk stays put, I think Seals has made the right decision to stay out of the race.  If Kirk leaves the seat though, I'd have no problem with Seals getting nivolved.  

I think he'd win rather easily in that seat once you take Kirk out of the equation.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 05:37:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Zerp correlation

Susan Collins had Tom Allen for breakfast.  That doesn't mean he wasn't liked.  Same with McCain.  Lots of folks thought he was okay, but Obama was better.

That said, Seals did have his shot(s).  Nothing "terrible" about it, but clearly it would seem someone could do better.

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by: tommypaine @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 01:49:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just because someone got beat

doesn't mean they aren't liked.  Tom Allen had pretty strong favorables in Maine, he just went up against someone with even better numbers.  We had good candidates in numerous other blue-leaning seats, they just lost to very talented and popular moderate Republicans.  On the other side, Linc Chafee lost re-election by 6%, but is still one of the most popular politicians in Rhode Island.  Literally had like a 64% approval rating as he was getting bounced from office.

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by: skaje @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:36:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The link I clicked just said he's "mulling" it

We knew for months that he's been mulling it.  

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

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by: Nathaniel90 @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:45:52 PM UTC

And...

what link would you be referring to?

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by: James L. @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:53:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, I see

Wow, that's kind of slimy of the CST to do that kind of ghost edit.

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by: James L. @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:59:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's time

For a motherfucking blogger ethics conference.

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by: DavidNYC @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 00:19:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

WOW, the Sun-Times walked this back!!

And with NO indication at all that they changed and/or modified their story.
Pretty unethical of the Chicago Sun-Times and this Lynn Sweet person.

(the original post was just as quoted in the OP post above)

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by: homerun @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:57:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My hope

Is that Roskam foolishly jumps into the Senate race as well, leaving IL-06 open.  He'd probably beat Kirk in a primary.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:00:48 PM UTC

seals, burner, and madia

had similar stories.  non-politicians running against experienced veterans who are able to appear "congressional" and moderate.  i think bond will be stronger.

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by: st paul sage @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 00:10:42 AM UTC

Yeah

We always seem to do better when we can recruit state legislators.  Which is why control of state houses and senates is so important to building a durable US Congressional majority.

Sounds like Bond will favored to get this seat regardless of what Kirk does.

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by: skaje @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 01:01:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And as I pointed out a while ago

25 of California's 53 representatives were previously state legislators. Granted a lot of them are in districts that are already solidly for their party, but the point remains.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 01:08:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

well I think there is one other point in that

they ran in districts where establishment, trusted politicians are who they ultimately vote for.  Why be risky?  Any three of them as complete outsiders could definitely win an urban district, Id argue suburban voters have a harder time getting comfortable with non-familiar people running for positions as high up as Congress.  I think it's simply inherent in both the urban and suburban culture.

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by: Andrew @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 22:06:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Third bluest

LA-2 (D+25) and DE-At Large (D+7)are bluer.  Joe Cao may be on borrowed time but he's still there.

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 07:42:04 AM UTC