Google Ads


Site Stats

IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Kirk Competitive in Senate Race, But Madigan Would Steamroll

by: James L.

Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 1:48 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (4/24-26, registered voters):

Roland Burris (D-inc): 19
Mark Kirk (R): 53
Undecided: 28

Jan Schakowsky (D): 33
Mark Kirk (R): 37
Undecided: 30

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 35
Mark Kirk (R): 35
Undecided: 29

Lisa Madigan (D): 49
Mark Kirk (R): 33
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±3.1%)

You've gotta figure that if Mark Kirk had a clear shot at a one-on-one race against Roland K. Burris, he'd leap at the opportunity... but the problem for him is that pesky Democratic primary, which is all but certain to weed out Burris from contention. While on the surface, Kirk polls very competitively against any Democrat for the Senate race other than Lisa Madigan (who does not appear to be a likely candidate), a disproportionate number of undecideds are Democratic voters (around 30% in the Schakowsky and Giannoulias head-to-heads), compared to only 19% of Republicans who are on the fence. In other words, once that money starts rolling, the Democratic nominee will have a lot more room for growth.

And who may that nominee be? PPP took a look at the Senate primary yesterday, too (4/24-26, likely Democratic voters):

Roland Burris (D-inc): 20
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 49
Undecided: 30

Roland Burris (D-inc): 16
Jan Schakowsky (D): 26
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38
Undecided: 21

Roland Burris (D-inc): 13
Jan Schakowsky (D): 11
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 19
Lisa Madigan (D): 44
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4.8%)

No matter which way you slice it, Burris is done. As for Lisa Madigan, it seems that whichever race she chooses, she's favored to win it (see David's piece yesterday for the gubernatorial primary numbers). She's also performing even more strongly than incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn in the gubernatorial general election against GOP state Sen. Bill Brady:

Lisa Madigan (D): 46
Bill Brady (R): 27
Undecided: 26

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 39
Bill Brady (R): 32
Undecided: 29
(MoE: ±3.1%)

Lisa's got options.
James L. :: IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Kirk Competitive in Senate Race, But Madigan Would Steamroll
Tags: , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Kirk Competitive in Senate Race, But Madigan Would Steamroll | 32 comments
Lynn Sweet is reporting Kirk is pretty much in for (IL-Sen)
See here: http://blogs.suntimes.com/swee...

If in a few months (say, by July), it looks like Kirk has a serious shot against either Jan or Alexi, Madigan is going to have to leave Gov for Quinn and do what is best for the country by torpedoing Kirk the assclown.

The good news is that his house seat will soon get changed to "likely Dem" in the congressional ratings tables.

likely dem?
Sounds a little much.  I'd say leans dem for now.
[ Parent ]
Gonna agree with Chad here for now
The GOP actually has a fairly deep bench in the 10th -- it just depends on whether they pick a moderate or a Roskam-style (or worse) conservative from their state legislative ranks.
[ Parent ]
Mentionedi n another thread
Sounds like Kirk actually is running for Senate and vacating IL-10.
Charlie Cook made a bunch of ratings moves today
Several Illinois moves too.

TENNESSEE | District 3: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/30/09)
PENNSYLVANIA | District 12: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/30/09)
OHIO | District 15: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (4/30/09)
NEW YORK | District 20: Toss Up to Lean Democrat (4/30/09)
IOWA | District 1: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat (4/30/09)
ILLINOIS | District 10: Likely Republican to Lean Republican (4/30/09)
ILLINOIS | District 8: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat (4/30/09)
ILLINOIS | District 6: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/30/09)
CALIFORNIA | District 48: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/30/09)
CALIFORNIA | District 3: Likely Republican to Lean Republican (4/30/09)
RHODE ISLAND | Governor: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (4/30/09)

While this does inlcude some IL action
Next time, maybe wait for the Daily Open Thread (AKA "the Digest") to post this sort of thing.
[ Parent ]
He thinks we have a chance at Wamp's district?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Yes
We have a top-tier recruit for that race.  Paula Flowers is running as our candidate and she's the former state Insurance Commissioner.  We definately have a chance, even if it's a small one.  Likely R ratings makes sense.
[ Parent ]
Kirk is a complete idiot
if he runs.  Maybe I havent really been political during a time where the GOP had any prominence in Illinois (why did that one guy beat Mosley-Braun?) but I dunno, any guy giving up a tough seat to hold to Congress for an even tougher seat to hold in the Senate is letting ambition cloud his judgement.

But whatev, thanks for the seat!  

Peter Fitzgerald
Scandal. Basically she went to Nigeria despite it being under sanctions. I think there were also some financial irregularities.
[ Parent ]
I remember when IL was a tossup/lean R state...
it wasn't that long ago.  If the economy goes badly, Kirk could win it.  There is no telling at this point what could happen in the D primary.  It would be wise NOT to count that chicken yet.  

Mosely-Braum was way out of her league in the U.S. Senate.      

[ Parent ]
Madigan for President?
I know we dont discuss presidential politics here but she better run for president at some point.  With that kind of polling and approval ratings, we need to get it through women politicians' heads that they dont need the resume and stature of Hillary to run for President and Madigan is certainly someone I'm looking to running.

Running for Gov and having her dad's position being tied around her neck wouldnt help in a presidential run unless she balances it all out.  But I'd rather her run for Gov and have Giannoulias run for Senate.  He does worst against Kirk than Madigan but come on, this is Illinois, we know how those undecideds will most likely lean.

That Madigan wants to be president someday
Is one of the worst kept secrets in politics.
If she actually manages to be the first governor in Illinois is like, ever, who doesn't get caught in a major scandal, well that would be presidential in and of itself.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
She's also rather good-looking, I'd say
Better than either Hillary or Palin.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
She's cute
In sort of a "book worm librarian" way.  I still think Palin looks better.  Ya, I know she's a nut, but no denying it.
[ Parent ]
Palin's features look strangely exaggerated
like she's trying too hard.  Or maybe it's my being influenced by who she is, because that usually strongly influences whether I find someone attractive.

And yeah, Lisa Madigan is the glasses-wearing cute.  Though, from my experience watching that sort of look on Alex Cabot on L&O, it can be played for power too.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
The thing about IL,
is that Obama is going to endorse any Democrat not named Burris for the November election.

Republicans have about zero chance of winning this Senate seat.

We'll see
I have a feeling he's work behind the scenes to push Burris out, but publicly I doubt Obama would get involved because Burris is technically the incumbent.
[ Parent ]
That's not my point
Burris will not make it to November. Obama will support whoever does.
[ Parent ]
Endorsements
Endorsements are overrated, IMO. As are the campaigning they do for them. Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama, during the 08 MA Dem primary, is a great example. It got Obama nowhere. Im sure it swayed a few votes but obviously not many. And besides one or two campaign stops Obama I dont think will do much actual on the ground campaigning for the eventual Dem nominee. And probably not in the critical last couple of days. And so he'll mostly just do what Ted Kennedy did - cut TV camapaign ads.
[ Parent ]
A Kennedy endorsement didn't matter
against Hillary Clinton. Nobody running for this seat is remotely like Hillary Clinton.
[ Parent ]
I think it did matter
Obama did lose Massachusetts by 15%, but he may have lost it by 25-30 if not for Kennedys' endorsement.  Same with New York (where Clinton got 36% of the black vote) and New Jersey, Obama kept those states relatively close rather than complete blowouts.  
I think Kennedy was responsible for as many as 50 delegates on Super Tuesday for Obama, and without them, Clinton is President today.
[ Parent ]
The endorsement by another Kennedy,
First Lady Maria Shriver, probably helped Obama pull within 10% of Clinton when she was expected to blow him out of the water in California.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Not Great Numbers
The thought that once the campaign really starts the Dems will come home is a good one- and the IL GOP is in the middle of quite the circular firing squad, so some of those Republicans might NOT come home- but Schakowsky and Giannoulias both have personal issues that would make for good attack ads. Once the campaign really starts, the moderates could stack those issues on top of Blago-palooza and move to Kirk.

OTOH, these numbers probably auger well for Madigan getting in the governor's race. Brady's the likely Republican nominee (he's on the conservative wing of the party that was ignored last time, and it's his "turn"), so if she's posterizing him, she's got little reason not to pull the trigger.

Kirk does well for an Illinois Republican
But can we say ceiling? Against anybody not named Burris, he gets in the region of 35%. He won't win against Madigan, becuase she's known and liked (even amongst conservatives).

Against Giannoulias and Schakowsky, he loses moderates by seven and twelve points respectively. By my back of the envelope calculations, Schakowsky would lose by only a few points even if she takes only 2/3 of Democratic undecideds, 1/3 of Republican undecideds and 1/3 of independent undecideds (and that would take a pretty terrible campaign). By the same metric, Giannoulias would be at or around the 50% mark.

Kirk might make us spend some money, but a decent campaign (especially one involving Obama) will not let him get above 45%.

I agree
And with omarka below. More money but likely another House seat so not too bad a trade.
[ Parent ]
Maybe not that much more money...
Giannoulias would be able to tap his banking buddies AND the Chicago money men. The DSCC may not need to get involved too much.
[ Parent ]
Relatively speaking
Obviously a similar situation in Delaware.
[ Parent ]
If the Dem nominee
Gets 7-12% of the moderate (i.e. swing) vote then thats essentially a blowout in a heavily Dem state like IL. Unless for some reason he/she just really underperforms amongst Dems whilst the GOP nominee does great with the GOP base. And I cant see Kirk losing in a blowout unless its against Madigan or Durbin.
[ Parent ]
Regarding the Alexi/Jan-Kirk matchups...
... remember how, say, Wicker was originally polling behind Musgrove?  And then won by like 10%.

Not gonna happen.  Obama won't allow his own seat to be taken.

Ya, it's early
With polling this early my guess is any one of the Democratic candidates (except Burris) has nowhere but up to go inthe polls.  An average Dem candidate like Jan probably beats Kirk with around 53-57% of the vote in an neutral year.  And so far 2010 appears to be a neutral year at worst for Democrats nationwide.
[ Parent ]
Well I guess everyone wins in the end.
Burris gets to be Senator for a bit, we get a scandal-free nominee, and Blago goes to jail.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Kirk Competitive in Senate Race, But Madigan Would Steamroll | 32 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox