Pat Quinn (D-inc): 29
Lisa Madigan (D): 45
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±4.8%)
So, er, yeah - I think I was a bit too dismissive of the possibility of Lisa Madigan getting into the governor's race yesterday. With an almost ridiculous 74-13 approval rating, she has a lot of doors open before her - including not just the statehouse but also the Senate race (which James will cover in another post).
Quinn is hardly doing poorly - he gets a 56-14 job approval rating. There's a little bit of apples-to-oranges here, though - PPP tested Madigan's favorability but Quinn's job approvals. The former question can often yield better numbers. For instance, Obama has a 63-27 favorability rating, but a 61-32 nationwide job approval average.
What I don't doubt is that Madigan has an edge in the head-to-head. But with Quinn doing well, this contest bears little resemblance to the other notable race where a Dem incumbent might get a serious primary challenge, NY-Gov. There are plenty of undecideds and Madigan hasn't even declared her candidacy yet. Still, it would be foolish to discount the possibility of her getting in. Therefore, SSP is adding this seat to our Races to Watch category.
