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PA-Sen: Obama, Menendez Throw Their Support Behind Specter

by: DavidNYC

Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 5:43 PM EDT


Barack Obama has got Arlen Specter's back:

When asked if Obama would like to see a more reliable Democrat challenge Specter for the 2010 nomination, [White House press secretary Robert] Gibbs referenced the president's morning comments: "He has the president's full support. He's thrilled that he's switched parties and is a Democrat."

"If the president is asked to raise money for Sen. Specter, he'll be happy to do it. If the president is asked to campaign for Sen. Specter, we'll be happy to do it." Gibbs said that includes the primary as well as the general election.

And it looks like we're all reading from the same hymnal at Our Lady of the Blue Donkey Church: Bob Menendez has also come down for Specter. From a DSCC press release (via email):

We welcome Senator Arlen Specter to the Democratic Party. The more the merrier. I just spoke with the Senator on the phone, told him that I look forward to supporting him and making sure this seat stays Democratic in November of 2010.

Joe Torsella may say he's staying in, and Joe Sestak may claim he's keeping his options open, but the path to the Democratic nomination for anyone other than Arlen Specter just got a whole lot narrower. Sure, the DSCC likes to say it doesn't "endorse" candidates, but they just didn't endorse Specter the same way they didn't endorse Jeff Merkley.

Anyhow, that's small potatoes alongside what Gibbs said. I can't really imagine a serious Democrat interested in going up against the President's own machine. Then again, stranger things have happened - they certainly did today.

In light of all this this, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on PA-Sen from Lean Republican to Likely Democrat.
DavidNYC :: PA-Sen: Obama, Menendez Throw Their Support Behind Specter
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PA-Sen: Obama, Menendez Throw Their Support Behind Specter | 66 comments
Everyone point and laugh
http://cookpolitical.com/ratin...

PENNSYLVANIA | Senate: Lean Republican to Lean Democrat (4/28/09)

Reid Will Keep Backing Specter - Even If He Keeps Opposing EFCA
http://theplumline.whorunsgov....

Harry Reid's office confirms to me that he will keep backing Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, even if Specter keeps up his opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act.
Only a month ago, Reid suggested to reporters that Specter's opposition to EFCA was a dealbreaker in terms of a party switch.
Specter also confirmed today that he will continue to oppose Dawn Johnsen, who is prized by many liberal Demcrats, for the crucial post of Office of Legal Counsel chief, where she would have a major role in determining what Bush-era legal practices get reversed.

No EFCA. No Johnsen. The outstanding question for Dems remains, What in practice will they get out of this deal?


So what exactly are we getting out this?
You think he's going to filibuster WITH republicans against EFCA?
Hell no he won't.  He'll vote for cloture and against the bill.  And that's all we need him for on that particular bill.
[ Parent ]
from same linked story:
Today Specter stated unequivocally that not only does he still oppose EFCA, he'll also vote against bringing it to the floor for a debate.

[ Parent ]
Give him time
He's going to have to make a push for labor endorsements and EFCA will be a dealbreaker.  He'll cave.  Not that it will matter.  We still don't have the votes.
[ Parent ]
Right
Specter will realize pretty soon that he has as much to fear from a Democratic primary as from a Republican primary, especially if he's voting against EFCA in a union state like Pennsylvania.  I think the only reason he had flip-flopped on EFCA previously is because of the primary challenge from Toomey.  Now that the electorate that would be deciding between him and Toomey is much saner, he'll see the writing on the wall and vote for it.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
This version maybe
Apply cosmetic changes and time, and he'll come around.

He DID vote for it last Congress, after all.

[ Parent ]
He voted for this bill last time
He's just being a dick on this one, and with presidential support, he has no reason to stop being a dick.
[ Parent ]
Interestingly
I've been hearing locally that some unions in NYC are pulling their support of EFCA...I can't get a clear answer as to why. There's nothing different from when they supported it in 2007.

Even some of the unions don't want EFCA to pass...I don't really get it.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Was this before or after Lincoln came out against?
If they view it as dead in the water, maybe they're trying to build some distance to come back with a less contentious bill. I don't believe that's a viable option - Republicans will fight any union-building bill and Ben Nelson and the Arkansas guys will happily join in at the least opportunity - but it makes a degree of sense.

Alternatively, are they engaged in unionisation drives right now? Are they trying not to frighten the companies they're unionising overmuch?

[ Parent ]
He'll find an excuse to vote for it
Specter was unprincipled enough to come out against EFCA after 4 years of supporting it to appeal to wingnuts in the primary.  He was unprincipled enough to switch parties after several weeks of saying that he wants to fight for the soul of the Repub party.  He's unprincipled enough to find some way to support EFCA (if it has enough other votes to come to the floor) to get back on labor's good side.
[ Parent ]
Dems will give him some nebulous compromise
And he will be able to say it was tweeked enough to get his vote on cloture.

The guy is the prototype politician, the only reason he went against years and years of union backing and votes was that he thought it might give him a chance against Toomey.

He'll end up being a good vote for unions and on health care (but will continue to be a massive pain in the ass on judges and spending issues).

[ Parent ]
Way to keep the caucus in line, Harry.
Bravo. A natural LBJ.
[ Parent ]
Bleech
All we got is the opportunity to NOT get a better Senator from Pennsylvania.

Hopefully he'll get primaried after he blocks cloture on a couple of things.

He probably won't do that
I can see Specter doing the same kind of stuff he did while he was a Repub, talk big against his party, and then cowardly vote for its legislation.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
THis is probably just Specter being Specter. As the saying goes, now he's our SOB.
[ Parent ]
Good points I suppose
Now that I think of it, there are two clearly good things here...

1) He will serve only one more term

2) Toomey will be crushed, 2-1, 60-40 at least.  That would do a lot to further blue and moderate even the Alabama parts of Pennyslvania.

If he behaves like the dick he has always been, someone could still appear in four or five months to primary him and still have time.

[ Parent ]
Specter will be a dick
the question is what kind of dick will he be.

1. Voting like a Repub OR

2. Talking like a Repub and then cowardly voting for cloture and legislation.

By bet is that it will be #2, the same way he was as a Repub.

[ Parent ]
He'll be like Ben Nelson in reverse
Lieberman is perhaps the best analogy. Like it or not.
[ Parent ]
That's going to be hard to overcome
If the primary is going to be successful, it'll need it to be clearly stressed that a rejection of Arlen Specter is a rejection of Arlen Specter, not a rejection of conservative Democrats.

Obama supporting him means that any battle will have to be a lot bloodier and that the odds of success will go down significantly. My only hope is that he shows his usual reluctance to put his head above the parapet and skirts around Pennsylvania as much as possible.

"I am a loyal Democrat."
I honestly think all this public independent thinker/no guaranteed 60th vote stuff from Specter is just bluster. He must have told Dem leaders in private he would vote with them on almost everything. They sure seem to tripping over themselves to announce their strong support of his re-election. He needs to put on a show lest he look like a complete opportunist.

He'll probably remain conservative on some things like gun rights and crime but that's about it. I think he's going to take a sharp turn to the left on economics.

My feeling also
Obama wouldn't be coming out for him so strongly otherwise. Remember, this is the guy who didn't mak clear his support for Scott Murphy until the polls moved in his favor. Look at Jeffords and how much he shifted after his jump.
[ Parent ]
Specter is not conservative on gun rights
nor is he that conservative on crime, he's cosponsoring Webb's criminal justice reform initiative.
[ Parent ]
Good for him re: Webb's bill. n/t

[ Parent ]
On EFCA
since Lincoln got a clear message from Wall-Mart, it's not going to come up for a vote in the 111th Congress anyway; by the 112th, Specter has enough distance (and another election) between him and his actions now, and his vote very likely wouldn't matter anyway, if current trends toward Democratic senators pan out.
It might pass in a modified form
but I'm pretty confident that Specter would vote for an EFCA compromise anyway.
[ Parent ]
I hate to be ghoulish
but even if Specter turns out to be a strong Democrat who votes with us regularly, he is 80 and had cancer.

This means that the Governor's race in PA is very very important.

It's not ghoulish
That exact same thought crossed my mind earlier in the day.  As long as many states have this ridiculous process of Governors naming Senate replacements we always have to consider such things.
[ Parent ]
Biden Had Fourteen Conversations With Specter This Year
http://theplumline.whorunsgov....
A White House aide confirms to me that Joe Biden had a total of six in-person meetings and at least eight phone calls with Specter since the stimulus package passed early this year.
...  the specific number of conversations illustrates much more White House involvement than was first evident.

That stimulus passed in February, so those 14 conversations where in just the past two months.
Maybe Specter switched just to keep from having to talk to Biden all the time... ;-)

(BTW, sounds like Rahm Emanuel at work there)

LOL, "Senator Snowe, Biden is on the phone again."
"Good god, not again, okay okay, I'll become a Democrat, just tell him to stop calling me."
[ Parent ]
if anything
there is plenty of news to be happy about here.

1.  The Club for Growth is going to spend plenty of money in an effort the make Toomey win and Specter is going to crush him.  I't'll be a good election to illustrate just how far out of the mainstream the Republican party is.  

2.  We would have had to spend millions of dollars to defeat Specter.  That money can now go to defeating other, more rightwing senators, like burr.  

3.  A message like this from Specter is a goldmine for us mediawise, messagewise,and powerwise.  

The media is all over this and its all about how this is all about the Republicans moving to the far right.  

The message of how bi-partisan the Democrats are that they welcome a Republican like Specter into the party and how big tent they are because of it.  This will appeal to independents in a big way, even some of the slightly right of center moderates.  

Powerwise, assuming he will not sustain a Republican filibuster on somethings, he'll be a big vote going forward.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

Also
Specter being on the ballot against Toomey should help Democrats up and down the ballot.  I'm sure Specter will also endorse whomever wins the Democratic primary for Governor of PA next year, which should carry weight with independent voters.
[ Parent ]
Well he better
As I mentioned earlier, I don't have confidence that Specter will serve out his term, and we need a Dem Gov to appoint his replacement.

Also we need a Dem Gov for redistricting (or at least to keep the state House.)

[ Parent ]
1 and 2 are irrelevant
we would have crushed Toomey with a Democrat in the general election anyway, and Toomey knocking off Specter in the primary would have made the Repubs look like wingnuts anyway.

In the long run we get a Blue Dog instead of a real Democrat.

This is only worth it, if Specter switching allows some of Obama's agenda (health care, energy, climate change) to pass this year, while without this switch they wouldn't pass.

[ Parent ]
the long run is only a few years


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
These are crucial years
2009-2014=1933-1938.  

We need to push every liberal initiative that we can during these years, because we won't get another chance for many many more years.

[ Parent ]
Have to agree
We've now picked up 15 Senate seats and 54 House seats since 2006.  In 2010 we are virtually guaranteed at minimum 63-64 seats with more possible.  We may never get an opportunity like this again.  Things like serious healthcare reform need to be done in the next few years or else we may have to wait a very long time.
[ Parent ]
Things that must be done legislatively
1.health care reform
2.new clean energy policy
3.climate change
4.education reform
5.election reform/campaign finance reform/lobbyist reform
6. financial regulation
7. labor reform (EFCA)
8. Social Security reform
9. a new high speed rail network
10. immigration reform
11. large increase in taxes on the wealthy, corporate interests and estates and general tax reform
12. a total reform of our defense
13. a new crackdown on corporate abuses
14. criminal justice reform (Webb bill)
15. curbing the War on Drugs
[ Parent ]
Health care is THE defining issue of the day for me
And it's deeply personal.  My mother had cancer and nearly died a few years ago due to lack of health care coverage.  She's been fighting the system for over 3 years just to get medicare/disability.  I've basically been partially supporting her the whole time.

Single payer universal healthcare is critical not just to the health of the nation, but to the financial future of the nation.  Corporate healthcare has been wreaking havok on the nation for decades and it has to end eventually.  The only question is when.

[ Parent ]
We won't get single payer
but we likely will get a public option thanks to Congress including health care in the reconciliation bill.

Although, it may not come to that now.  I don't think any Democrat will vote against cloture on health care, now that reconciliation is certain if they do.  Although I expect Ben Nelson and a few other Dems to vote against the actual bill (I think Specter will likely vote for cloture and the bill itself.)

[ Parent ]
Which is fine for now
The public option as part of a healthcare overhaul is fine for now.  I don't expect single payer as ppart of this year's healthcare overhaul.
[ Parent ]
What I think will happen
Very few people actually like their private health insurance plans anyway.  A public option will basically crowd out the private plans and solve part of the problem for us.
[ Parent ]
That's what the insurers think too
Hence the pressure behind the scenes not to include a public plan. This is also why a lot of single-payer advocates are still arguing for that - they don't want to pre-emptively cave.

The worst case scenario, however, is that a public plan just makes it in to the bill, but to appease the likes of Ben Nelson it has to be badly underfunded, doing massive harm to the cause of public healthcare.

[ Parent ]
As long as it's well funded from the start we should be ok
Try as they might republicans have never been able to do all that much damage to the major entitlement programs in the country.  Once people get used to entitlement programs it's practically impossible for politicians to do away with them.  Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and good examples.
[ Parent ]
Excuse me, but you don't know that
Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado was a moderate Democrat in Colorado and then he switched over and became a fairly right-wing Republican. Jim Jeffords was a moderate Republican in Vermont and then started caucusing with the Democrats, he moved pretty far to the left (I think he would probably be considered number 3 or 4 in the Senate as far as liberalness goes). Party switches tend to result in movement more towards the median of the party (or even further depending on the state).

Hell, Lieberman actually became more conservative when he won re-election as a member of the Connecticut for Lieberman party than he was when he got elected as a Democrat, this is all verifiable btw.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Nate Silver at 538
attempted to quantify just what you're saying today:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I just read that
It's quite interesting, and especially the last part of what Silver said:

There are both aggravating and mitigating circumstances that may affect Specter's positioning. On the one hand, he seems to have made the switch more or less unabashedly for electoral reasons, even alluding to the polling in his statement today. This suggests that he'll be no more and no less Democratic than he can get away with. On the other hand, the parties are now more polarized than they once were, and so crossing the aisle may mean more than it once did. Prior to this party-switch, Specter's DW-NOMINATE scores had gradually been moving away from the center as it had become harder to stake out a position as a moderate Republican.


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Presser tomorow
with Eddy Rendell, O, Biden, Specter, maybe Casey, maybe Reid as well all to declare their undying love for Arlen Specter.

I don't like this at all. We're getting someone who ushered more then half of the current arch-conservative members of the court, who signed the letter saying that Franken shouldn't be seated with the rest of the Republicans, who opposed Obama's budget, opposes Dawn Johnsen, opposes EFCA cloture, opposes cap and trade, opposes use of reconciliation and at best will be a Ben Nelson/Bayh type of Democrat.

And this is in a state that Obama won by double digits.

Is this the best we can do?  

We can do better, but...
it would risk doing far worse.  Toomey might be able to get 38 to 40% in a three way race, and that would be seriously sucky.

And he's 80.  It's grim to say, but it's less likely than not that he would serve out a full next term.

[ Parent ]
All the more reason to frighten him now
If he decides to serve until November 2010 then retire, that's ideal.
[ Parent ]
Did anyone else
think of that West Wing epsiode where Tom Skerrit played the Idaho Democratic Senator who switched parties and the White House was trying to say it was because he was going to lose as a Democrat?  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
i expect him to tack left in the next couple of years
but i don't expect him to renounce everything he's argued for the past year in his first day as a democrat.
Same here.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
And here
It will be worth it just to get a half decent health care bill. I think it was telling that was what they focused on at the presser this morning.
[ Parent ]
Presser = press conference?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Aye

[ Parent ]
Rick Sanchez Hits Nail On Head

At 3:10, Rick says:

"Wh-What the hell does that mean? Party of Freedom?"

Priceless.

"Democrat" used as adjective
Ha-ha.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
.....
DeMint "Pat Toomey is one of the most mainstream politicians I know."

Seriously Jim?  Maybe mainstream for Oklahoma.  Certainly not for Pennsylvania.

[ Parent ]
Not even Oklahoma
Toomey's more mainstream on Mars.
[ Parent ]
"Toomey is from Mars..."
"...Specter is from Venus"??

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
If Specter is from Venus
Then the attractiveness of the women of Venus just fell drastically.
[ Parent ]
No one said he was necessarily a representative example
of someone from Venus.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
That was a joke, dude.

[ Parent ]
I need to append :P more often
onto my statements that are meant as snark.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
And this is why you had Linda Ketner
pulling 47% of the vote in an R+10 district.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
PA-Sen: Obama, Menendez Throw Their Support Behind Specter | 66 comments

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