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PA-Sen: Torsella's Staying In (For Now)

by: James L.

Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 3:27 PM EDT


Joe Torsella, the only announced Democratic Senate candidate of note in Pennsylvania, says that he's staying in the race despite Specter's party switch:

I decided to run for the United States Senate from Pennsylvania for one simple reason: I believe we need new leadership, new ideas, and new approaches in Washington. It's become obvious that the old ways of doing business might have worked for the special interests, but they haven't worked for the rest of us.

Nothing about today's news regarding Senator Specter changes that, or my intention to run for the Democratic nomination to the Senate in 2010 - an election that is still a full year away.

How long do you give him?

(H/T: Englishlefty)
James L. :: PA-Sen: Torsella's Staying In (For Now)
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PA-Sen: Torsella's Staying In (For Now) | 47 comments
Not long
His wife gave $2300 to Specter even when he was still a Republican in '04.

Honestly, though, I think Specter does need a primary challenger just to keep him honest. I'm not talking Club for Growth level nuttiness, but handing him the Senate seat would be a bit unfortunate (as in, we need to make sure that if we challenge him seriously, that our challenger can actually win).

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

especially since
Torsella was running as Rendell's annointed... and Rendell's promised Specter a free pass...

http://theplumline.whorunsgov....

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

It depends...
...upon exactly how much ungodly whining Ed Rendell does.

If he goes too far and gives himself a coronary, Torsella will stay in. Failing that, I give it two weeks to when the first poll (taking advantage of the post-switch warm fuzzy glow) shows Specter about 15 points ahead of his nearest challenger.

Still, I do think there will be a credible challenger. Not one with a strong profile in the Pennsylvania Democratic Party now, but somebody who could plausibly beat Toomey (although not in a landslide). Who that would be, I don't know, but I'm betting that while Torsella wavers people will be looking for the replacement.

Credible challenger in the Dem primary? Not likely.
Specter reported $6,736K cash in his campaign war chest.
I have no clue how many requests he'll get for refunds. But say a couple of million, which he'll easily replace with new donations from Dem PACs.
So you're talking challenging a highly experienced, ruthless incumbent Senator with $6-7M and up in bank. Good luck with that.
That said, I'm with you in wishing that there were one. I don't really trust the guy one iota.
[ Parent ]
Specter is 79
Keeping that in mind, Torsella should hang in there.

I have read hundreds of comments on the Specter switch.

This 3 word comment is from Chris Cillizza's column

The swine flew.

Being a democrat, I cannot agree with it. But I have to admit that this takes the cake among Republicans.

Winston Churchill started as a conservative, crossed the aisle before WWI and then returned home around 1930. Is there any other prominent politician who has done this?

I meant the comments to Chris Cillizz's column.
Not the column itself.
[ Parent ]
A few months ago I thought that pandemic funding was pork
A lot of people turned out to be wrong.  Ya, it's no excuse, just saying.
[ Parent ]
"Anyone can rat, but it takes a certain ingenuity to re-rat"
W. Churchill.

I don't know about others (except for some very minor Labour politicians who went to the SDP in the 1980s and returned to Labour in the 1990s) but it's worth noting that Specter's in good company - Churchill also switched because he saw the writing on the wall for his party (the Liberals).

[ Parent ]
it's an effective tool for influencing Specter
The GOP got Specter to move Right with a primary challenge.

Since Specter has shown he's susceptible to this kind of pressure, why wouldn't members of the Dem coalition use the same tool to influence him?

That's my thinking
We all know Specter has no real set of values or principles.  And that can be a good thing considering he now has to move well left in order to secure re-election.
[ Parent ]
I dunno
Specter had to deal with idiots like McConnell, Cornyn and Kyl, listen to crazy collegues like Bunning, Inhoffe, Vitter, Coburn, DeMint...list is about 30, and have to appease certain far-right factions of his own state party.  He was in a no-win situation.  My only fault with Specter is that he didn't come and join us sooner.  If you deal with a bunch of crazy whacks on a daily basis, it will get to you.  The nut finally cracked, and he bolted.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
oh come on
it had nothing to do with listening to crazy collegues.
It had everything to do with multiple polls showing him badly losing the Repub primary.
[ Parent ]
Sure
I agree with you that the polls stated that he would lose badly in the Republican primary...I don't deny that.  But that wasn't my exact point.

Look at how the Republican caucus has change over the last 10 years.  Back in 1999, you had not only Specter, Snowe, and Collins, but you also had Jeffords, Chafee, Warner, DeWine, Gorton, Domenici, Hagel, Coverdell, and Roth who were willing to work with Democrats for the good of the country.  There are only a handful of other current GOP senators that I would lump with this group (Lugar, Grassley, and Voinovich).

From a historical perspective, the GOP changed a lot in the last 10 years.  Obsessed with power, and obsessed with neoconservatism.  Compared to 10 years ago, the current Republican Caucus is worthless.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Nowadays
Hatch is considered to be on the left end of their party.
[ Parent ]
Primary the bastard
I bet that's what Limbaugh would say.

Limbaugh spinned it around and said that the conservatives, and not the moderates, were shut out of the GOP.  If that was the case, the GOP would have flipped him the finger a long time ago.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Figures he'd say that
Now we get a likely Specter (D) vs. Toomey (R) contest in 2010, so Limbaugh won't have to wait long to see how a conservative fairs as their nominee.

Wonder if Toomey will even manage the 41% Santorum got in his 2006 Senate race.  My guess is no.

[ Parent ]
I think Toomey will get 35-40%
The conservatives will be pissed with Specter, but a lot will be pissed with how far the GOP has moved to the right.  If anything, Specter will do much better in the general election than he did in 2004, when he won by 11%.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Not sure he'll have a huge margin
If (as seems likely) Specter wins the primary, there's going to be a sizeable Green vote. Not enough to let Toomey win, but at least in the high single digits. A hell of a lot of partisan Dems are not going to be happy to fall in line behind Specter.
[ Parent ]
Don't know how you come up with that idea
As always, the Dems will spend plenty of money to keep a green off the ballot. Usually, they're successful.

In any case, I expect most Dems to get in line behind Specter.  

[ Parent ]
Ya
They were kept off the ballot in the 2006 Senate race despite republicans fighting to get them on it.
[ Parent ]
People will be out collecting signatures
If a viable primary challenge isn't an option, the refuseniks will likely put their effort behind putting a Green on the ballot. I don't know if they'd succeed, but one imagines there'd be enough residual discontent to give them a shot at it.

And whilst most Dems would probably unify behind Specter, I suspect that the 15% or so most liberal Democrats would figure that Toomey would likely lose anyway and that they might as well vote their hearts.

[ Parent ]
That'll depend on polls
If Specter is leading Toomey by 20-30 points, then a Green candidacy is possible, but if it's a closer rac, I just don't see many Pennsylvania Dems risking throwing the seat to Toomey...except for the suicide liberals that already exist and they're not a big number, especially in Pennsylvania.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
It generally doesn't work like that in PA
Even at his apex, Ralph Nader couldn't manage 3% in PA.
[ Parent ]
Someone on OL thought of it
What about a 3rd party progressive campaign in the general? (0.00 / 0)
This situation, a state that supported obama with essentially two republicans slated to run for the seat in the general, is our best shot of a 3rd party progressive winning a Senate seat.  We should think about funneling our money towards a progressive in the general rather than waste the money in a primary that the dlc dems and the dscc will be heavily tilting towards specter.  Let specter make a specter ... and a sphincter ... of himself and then let the reps, and some of the dems, split their vote on either republican and clean up the rest.  It's not that far-fetched of a scenario.  
If we could win a seat in the Senate that could be something that we could at least gain some leverage from.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Someone who doesn't know the state very well
apparently. There's a reason why Specter isn't running as an Indy.  
[ Parent ]
Fair enough
I'm no expert on Pennsylvania ballot law (although I do at least now that it's harsh enough that third party efforts would be stupid there even if they weren't in the rest of the U.S.).

Still, I never think it's a good idea to underestimate the power of bitterness. There may not be many who'd vote against Specter in the general, but it's a non-zero population.

[ Parent ]
I would point to the 2006 example.
Do you know how pissed some Democrats were that Casey was handed the nomination? Casey still swept the SE.
[ Parent ]
Bowers for Senate!
Frankly, I think DavidNYC has more chance in the New York gubernatorial race.
[ Parent ]
That damn lefty Hatch should be Club for Growth's next target...
Orrin, you'd better straighten up and fly right!
[ Parent ]
No, no
They need to focus on swing state Republicans guaranteeing a Democratic pick up.
[ Parent ]
Somehow, this comment amused me greatly.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
He's got Neil Oxman working for him
and Oxman is excellent.

I doubt he'll stay in the race, but I hope he does for a while. Applying pressure from the left on Specter is important.  

I'm kind of sad
I was really looking forward to doing what I did in 2004, that is switch parties, vote and volunteer for Toomey in the Repub primary to get rid of Specter.

End result will be the same
I assume your doing that in 2004 had more to do with getting rid of a repub Senate vote than specifically getting rid of Specter.
[ Parent ]
Well Specter had stayed Repub
we'd have gotten a real Dem rather than a Blue Dog (which is where Specter will be).
[ Parent ]
The terrible headlines for the GOP are worth it
Besides, you just watch him move left slowly and steadily between now, the Dem primary and next November. And, again, does it really matter if he doesn't vote the "right" way on every crucial vote if the caucus is 65 votes strong come January 2011? Seems to me there is plenty room for error there particularly with Snowe and Collins quite often voting for cloture.
[ Parent ]
He will certainly move left
but his eventual destination will be a Blue Dog position (similar to say Mark Warner) rather than a liberal, which is what we would have gotten with the Democrat had Specter stayed Repub and lost to Toomey.

I don't think Specter will oppose us much on cloture.  But he could be instrumental in watering down legislation in 2011 or 2013 (when we have huge majorities in the Senate).

[ Parent ]
Warner has been remarkable
Been really impressed with how reliable his vote has been. Specter will probably start off voting like the southern Dems but will end up in McCaskill, Casey, Conrad, Dorgan, and Carper territory.
[ Parent ]
The only reason why Warner
may be reliable for major votes is that he is still considering running for President in 2016.

I think a part of Warner is kicking himself that he didn't run in 2008.  Warner, and Bayh for that matter, I think concluded that Hillary Clinton was unbeatable in the Democratic Primary.  (And to be quite frank neither Warner and Bayh would have lost to Clinton)

[ Parent ]
Bayh would have done
Bayh had too much conservative baggage not to get beaten about by ever other candidate in the race in the liberal-heavy caucus state of Iowa, and I don't imagine he'd have had much luck in New Hampshire either.

South Carolina would have been about his only early chance, and I think the black vote would have sunk him there.

I'm not sure about Warner, as he had more room to redefine himself, but I suspect Clinton could still have taken him.

[ Parent ]
Read my revision
I meant that neither Bayh nor Warner would have beaten Clinton.  Clinton ran a very good campaign from late February onward.

[ Parent ]
I meant
neither Warner or Bayh would have beaten Clinton.
[ Parent ]
As others have mentioned
Party switchers almost always move fast and hard towards their new party to consolidate support.

Case in point - Former Sen. Campbell of Colorado.

American Conservative Union ratings:
As Democrat
1993 - 12%
1994 - 25%

As Republican
1995 - 59%
1996 - 78%
1997 - 72%

[ Parent ]
More in a similar vein from Nate
[ Parent ]
If Nate is right
And Specter turns out to vote similar to Tim Johnson, Conrad and Casey Jr. I'll be fine with him.  Even as a republican Specter was left of Casey on some social issues.
[ Parent ]
That's assuming, of course
our 2010 Democratic nominee wouldn't BE a Blue Dog-type.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
There aren't many here
that would even think of opposing EFCA for example (although I doubt Specter will end up opposing it if it were to come to a cloture vote).

Almost any serious Dem nominee would be a couple shades to the left of Bob Casey.  Most likely we get a Philly metro Democrat.  Even a overt strong liberal would beat Pat Toomey in PA.

[ Parent ]
PA-Sen: Torsella's Staying In (For Now) | 47 comments

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