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GA-Gov: Barnes Leads Democratic Contenders, GOP Field Wide Open

by: James L.

Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 1:41 AM EDT


This one is already starting to gather a few speckles of dust, but it's still worth a look. Strategic Vision (4/17-19, likely voters) tests the temperature in the Democratic and Republican gubernatorial hot tubs.

First, the Democratic mix, which includes fence-sitting ex-Gov. Roy Barnes:

Roy Barnes: 56
Thurbert Baker: 29
David Poythress: 4
DuBose Porter: 2
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±3%)

And of course, team frothy wingnut:

John Oxendine: 33
Karen Handel: 14
Jack Kingston: 11
Lynn Westmoreland: 7
Sam Olens: 4
Mark Burkhalter: 2
Ray McBerry: 2
Austin Scott: 2
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±3%)

That's a hell of a lot of players to leave without a scorecard, so let's give you hand:

Barnes: Ex-Governor
Baker: Attorney General
Poythress: Ex-Labor Commissioner and Secretary of State
Porter: House Minority Leader

Oxendine: Insurance Commissioner
Handel: Secretary of State
Kingston: US Representative
Westmoreland: US Representative (not running)
Olens: Cobb County Commission Chairman
Burkhalter: House Speaker pro tem
McBerry: Some Dude
Scott: State Representative

Barnes, who was defeated in 2002 as an incumbent, is reportedly still on the fence about a 2010 comeback attempt -- but if Strategic Vision has a grip on reality here, the nomination could be his for the taking, even against current AG Thurbert Baker. In a three-way race without Barnes, Baker leads Poythress and Porter by a 41-8-5 split (with a whopping 46% undecided), indicating that even Baker is unknown to a lot of Democratic voters.

The GOP field tested here is much bigger, and, without Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in the mix, a lot more wide open. This one could be a good horse race to watch.

James L. :: GA-Gov: Barnes Leads Democratic Contenders, GOP Field Wide Open
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Glad to see
that the statewide position of "Some Dude" can still win you 2% in a Georgia GOP primary :P

I'll need to lobby my state legislators to lobby the federal government
to create a position of "Some Dude" so I can run for it.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
You're certainly qualified for the office!


[ Parent ]
Why thank you!


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Quoi
In a three-way race without Barnes, Baker leads Poythress and Barnes...


22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


Oops
That is to say, Poythress and Porter.

[ Parent ]
Go Oxendine (snark)
Oxendine would be a joy to run against as a Democrat in Georgia and would probably be the easiest to defeat of the bunch.

Expect some kind of decision by Barnes to come in the coming months from what I hear. The party insiders seem to say he's leaning pretty heavily towards getting into the race.  


he'd beat oxedine


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Some interesting notes
Not only is Westermoreland out, but State Senator Eric Johnson is in and U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal is rumored to be joining, both on the Republican side.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

I'm stunned by the Dem numbers, would have guessed...
...Baker and Barnes would be reversed.

Baker is the only Democratic statewide elected officeholder, he's a popular Attorney General with a "law-and-order" profile that appeals outside the Democratic base, and he's a black guy who can monopolize black support and turn up black turnout without alienating whites.

Barnes, in contrast, was a one-term Governor who lost reelection earlier this same decade for the same office he now considers seeking.  And it was the same year Baker won reelection, making Baker a better general election vote-getter with the exact same voters!

I know Baker would have a tougher time next November running for Governor than he had in his reelection runs, but I have to think he's our best bet.  Attorney General is a high-profile and politically charged job, and for non-liberal white Southerners it can't be much easier to stomach a black man as A.G. than as Governor.  That so many accept him as A.G. suggests Baker has well-neutralized the race issue with white Georgians.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


In Defense of Barnes
People usually pay a lot more attention to the gubenatorial race than they do down ballot races, and Baker wasn't running against Perdue.

I don't find this surprising. Most people couldn't name their state's AG. Governor is a different matter - and Barnes was governor only 6 years ago. Sure he lost in 2002 (a terrible year for Democrats in the South), but I don't think Baker is obviously a stronger candidate for 2010.


[ Parent ]
I asked my uncle and aunt
They've both lived in GA all their lives.  My uncle knew his last name was Baker but thought he was white.  My aunt had never heard of Baker at all.  I'll bet a lot of people in GA keep re-electing him because they think he's a white guy.  Too bad in a high profile Governor's race they'll realize he's black.

[ Parent ]
Olens for AG
Sam Olens is running for Attorney General, not Governor.  However, with his lack of a statewide profile and his very low standing in this poll, it would have been an uphill climb for him to win the GOP gubernatorial nomination.  Going from Cobb County Commission Chairman to running for Attorney General strikes me as surprising.  I think district attorneys, state legislators, and sometimes statewide officials (Roland Burris went from Comptroller to AG) usually have the most credible profiles to run for the AG post.


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