Texas

Have they released the population growth by district numbers that you talked about in your previous piece?  I would be curious to see the Hispanic vs. Black growth in some of the inner city Houston and Dallas districts.  Will it help us in any way if we win control of the Texas state House this year, or would we also need to win the Governor or Senate to have an impact on redistricting.  If by some miracle we win one or both of those, is it possible that we could make all 4 new districts (or 3/4) Democrat leaning, and if so, where could they be located.  And is there sufficient population growth to put another left leaning district in Travis County?

16, Male, MI-01

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by: Menhen @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 13:51:29 PM CDT

MY expectations

All Republican: Screwed, nothing more than we have now.

State House D, Rest R: Incumbent Protection, maybe 1 new seat out of 4. Doggett gets all of Travis, Chet Edwards is given something in Fort Worth, Lampson is given all of Galveston, Ciro get something more in San Antonio.

State House and Gov. D, Senate R, All the above + 2 of the 4 new US House Seats.

All 3 branches (Yeah right, not getting the State Senate, nothing good coming up in 2010) - Fundamental redrawing of east Texas, Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston

25, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 14:13:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Is it possible

to shore up enough Democratic votes in TX-17th to even make it a marginally D leaning district?  Martin Frost's former district comes to mind (inner city Dallas & FW, rural area south of Dallas county), except stretching down to Waco.  I doubt Lampson will still be in Congress by 2012, so that may not work.  Rodriguez won't lose his seat unless the Repubs nominate a latino, which they showed this year that they are very unwilling to do.  I hope that the Rs are forced to give us one or 2 districts in the urban areas because of minority majority laws, that would limit our losses.

16, Male, MI-01

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by: Menhen @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 14:25:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

YOu are correct in 17

Check out the maps for State Senate district 10 and House district 96, these are both extremely competitive seats going into this fall and both are held by republicans. I expect we will win both through hard work. Winning these races though will have locked Democrats in control of everything south of I-30 in Tarrant County. Chet Edwards would be among friends if he is moved into those areas (and stretched down to Waco. PVI (I am estimating) would drop from R+18 to R+7-9

Lampson may be gone, but Galveston will still be a blue area (and getting bluer). Eventually the GOP will have to recreate something like Lampson's old TX-9 which will include Galveston, Jefferson, and Chambers counties. This would be something about R+2 max, which means moderately Democratic at the local office level. The bits of Harris Lampson has right now are improving as well, question is how fast.

25, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 14:42:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Control the House and pass it to the courts

The minimum goal of the Texas Democrats is to gain control of the lower house of the Lege in time for the redistricting. In the likely event that the Lege can't work out a fair plan, it goes to the five-member panel including the Speaker, i.e., the representative of the majority in the lower house. When that panel deadlocks, not if but when, the matter goes to the courts.

The point of all the foreplay -- knowing that the matter will be decided by the courts -- is that the courts actually usually try to avoid appearing "activist" and like to tweak existing plans when remedying their legal problems. So a plan to emerge from the state House and another plan to emerge from the state Senate could be among the plans in front of the judges when they take up the matter.

Now I will guarantee that the matter will go to court. It did in the 90's and after 2000 and again after the mid-decade DeLaymandering of '03. Chief among the litigants will be Hispanic civil rights groups. They are always ready and willing to go to court, and over the years they've become pretty good at it. It was the Hispanic plaintiffs who won the Supreme Court review and order to redraw the Bonilla district, nevermind the cases brought by the Democrats and the black civil rights groups.

As it happened, when the judges redrew the Bonilla district, they redrew some of its neighbors, so they all made more sense. Some of the most stringy fajita strips were shortened and thickened. Lloyd Doggett, an Anglo who survived the ethnic-cleansing redistricting effort, gained a fairly compact district almost wholly within the Austin Metro area. So the hope is always that a court ordered plan will be more fair to blacks, Democrats, Hispanics, and everybody than anything that could possibly emerge from the state Capitol.

But even back in the fight in '03, and after Bonilla's district was ordered redrawn in '04, the Hispanic groups complained that they had been cheated out of still another seat rightfully theirs by the numbers.

So the Hispanics will go into the redistricting ring claiming they are owed one, PLUS all four new ones from demographic growth. Five more Hispanic seats? It could happen. That would make 11 seats out of 34, and one third seems reasonable given the numbers. I think the courts would buy that.

In that case, much furniture will be moved and few Anglo districts will much resemble their current outlines. South Texas-San Antonio should gain a seat, Houston one or two, Dallas another. Ron Paul better be ready to retire in four years; incumbent protection is always the rule but he'll be the exception. And the districts based in the deep red High Plains, already stretching from the New Mexico border to the D-FW Metroplex, will stretch even more as Texas' portion of the Plains continues to hollow out like western Nebraska or eastern Colorado.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 22:21:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Numbers by district for 2007 haven't been

released yet, but you know, numbers by district for 2006 are available, so give me a few minutes and I'll update the story to include some of those numbers. Those are helpful because, for instance, there are five or six different districts in Harris County, so that can help us drill down a little further.

What would happen if Democrats controlled the House in 2010 would be that the two chambers wouldn't agree on a redistricting plan and the Legislative Redistricting Board would take over. There are five members on this board: the Lt. Governor, the Speaker, the Attorney General, the Comptroller, and the Land Commissioner. Now currently the GOP holds all of these offices, but I think they also had at least a majority of these offices in 2000 (when the legislative chambers were split) and the Democrats still wound up with a pretty favorable map in 2002. (Which was the reason for the DeLay-mander in 2004 once the Republicans took over the state House.)

As for Travis County, no, there isn't enough growth there for whole a new district there. What you might see, though, is the 10th (which currently is a tapeworm running from Austin's east suburbs to Houston's west suburbs) might get split into two, and a 10th that takes in Austin suburbs and rural areas to the east of it may be more favorable to us than currently configured.

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by: Crisitunity @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 14:27:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think that's wrong

The redistricting board is not relevant for Congressional districting. If it were, I can assure you that the Republicans would have quickly drawn their own congressional map in 2001.

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by: andgarden @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 21:45:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here's

the list of how it's done in each state (the list is out-of-date in Arizona and Ohio, but I think the rest is right). In Texas the legislature gets the first crack at it; the LRB is backup. See Woody's comment upthread; apparently in 20001 the Texas board deadlocked too and the courts made the final decision.

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 11:26:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It baffles me that the LRB deadlocked in '01

I would have expected the Republicans to have a majority, even with Dem control of the House. Certainly the Reps got the State House and Senate maps they wanted.

My guess is that the site you're linking to is simply wrong and that the actual deadlock was in a legislative conference committee, which would likely have been evenly divided.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 13:48:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ya, Bonilla's old district comes to mind

The republicans overstretched themselves in 2004 and were forced by the court to redraw a few districts in south TX to create another heavily Hispanic district.  Of course the district affected the most was Bonilla's which was made far more democratic allowing Rodriguez to defeat him in 2006.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 14:14:15 PM CDT

Added incentive for helping Lampson survive

his district, which includes the areas recieving most of the growth in Fort Bend county, as well as the northern portions of Brazoria and Galveston, as well as a southern portion of Harris, is a demographic timebomb that shows that he's recieving a lot of hispanic, asian and even black voters, making this district by 2010 a presidential toss-up (although there's no presidential contest here). I also think that with the growth in the Houston area, that we can have 2 districts encompassing Southwest Houston (Fort Bend, Harris) and a Gulf Coast district encompassing Jefferson, Galveston and the Space complex (similar to Lampson's old district) that could both be held by dems.

Sheila Jackson Lee also needs to watch out, her district is no longer majority/plurality black, and she'll need to make major inroads towards the Asian community and also the whites if she doesn't want to lose a la Al Greene.

But this is really an important incentive to regain the Texas House, and at least one (if not 2 or 3) of the statewide offices to give us atleast a fair seat at the table for the redistricting process.

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by: KainIIIC @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 14:36:11 PM CDT

haha

I love this stuff. My father moved to Montgomerey County just North of Houston from Los Angeles a few years back. And although I'm sure he wouldn't say it, or maybe he would, I'm sure it was to get away from,' all the god damned liberals and illegal immigrants.' haha Kinda warms my heart, especially since I don't have to live there.

Irony is fun.

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by: Venslor @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 16:39:36 PM CDT

Is Texas already an all-minority state?

With the massive growth in all groups except whites I'd imagine Texas will soon be an all-minority state, all races making up less than 50% of the population that is.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 17:09:53 PM CDT

Yes

As of 2007 non-Hispanic whites make up 47.9% of the population. Looks like they fell under the 50% mark in 2003.

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by: Crisitunity @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 17:46:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hispanic Growth

The Hispanic growth is not relevant in Texas for two reasons: the Hispanics are either not here legally or they are not voting.  Simply look at Hispanic majority districts represented by fellow Hispanics and you will notice that turnout is very low (Linda Sanchez, Joe Baca, etc.).  Sheila Jackson Lee, Diane Watson, Laura Richardson, and Maxine Waters all represent Hispanic majority districts.  Had Hispanics been eligible to vote, I could assure you that they would not be represented by an African-American.

Republicans in Texas are very creative and they will find a way of diluting the Hispanic population, without creating another safe Democratic seat.  The one thing the GOP in Texas should fear is what soon will be reality: those here illegally will eventually get a pathway to citizenship.  As a result the GOP will get knocked out of office one by one.  Racism eventually catches up with the GOP.  It's simply a matter of time.

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by: antoni @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 17:47:58 PM CDT

That's the problem

While Texas is growing at a massive rate due to Hispanics, low turnout and high numbers of Hispanics being inelibible to vote will just give most of that new electoral power to whites who vote in far higher numbers.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 18:16:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's relevant

in terms of creating new minority-majority House districts, where the 'one person one vote' requirement doesn't consider whether the residents of those districts are voters or even citizens. And while the Texas GOP is clever, certainly, they still aren't outside the requirements of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

You're right that it'll take quite a while (decades, maybe) before this pays benefits at a state-wide level, though.

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by: Crisitunity @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 18:47:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Actually

We are probably one liberal Supreme Court justice's passing away from the Voting Rights Act being null and void.  Come on Justice Stevens, hang in there for 5 more months!

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 18:54:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Tejanos, too

Much of the Hispanic population growth is from immigrants, legal and otherwise, yes. But we had Spanish-speaking settlements here before we had English-speaking towns. The birth rate remains high among this largely Catholic native-born population of Tejanos, slowing perhaps, but still higher than among the Anglos. And contrary to the racist rantings on hate radio they are assimilating, witness Lt Col Rick Noriega, whose family has been in Houston for four or five generations, or amusingly, the recent Mayor of San Antonio, named Garcia IIRC, who couldn't speak Spanish himself.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 22:23:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My grandmother

She's from Weslaco, a town in south Texas.  Was born in the US, she's 85 years old and hardly speaks a word of english.  She's first generation Mexican-American.  She doesn't vote.  But also she's one of many of that type down there.  Many of my family members on my mother's side of the family fall very much into that category of non-voters.  It's hard to say that anything will ever change that either.  It's a type of "who cares, I gotta pay my bills either way" mentality that I'll never fully understand.  I actually had a 35 year old cousin of mine tell me he thought Bush was a Democrat.

As for my dad's side it's 5th/6th generation hispanics (some ancestors have been here since it was Mexico) who are nothing but a bunch of politicians.  But they're also very much on the fence about voting Obama.  Very big Clinton backers.  While there's many reasons that hispanics won't be flocking to the polls to vote for Obama, this is one that irks me the most.  But this sect of hispanic voters are guaranteed votes for Noriega.

But time heals all as my father confessed to me.  After the primaries he told me he was voting for McCain ("War Hero!  War Hero!").  He later conceeded to the notion of "I'll probably wind up voting for Obama but let me grumpy till then."

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by: itistherabbit @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 04:34:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

"Let me be grumpy till then"

Hey, that's great advice from your father. There's lots of folks who should lighten up on the Hillary supporters and let them grieve and heal from their disappointment. By November they will all be with us. Probably by September.

On your mother's side, I'm afraid THAT part of the Mexican heritage is perfectly understandable, given the deplorable history of "democracy" south of the border. Maybe it's too old to expect change from an 85-year-old non-voter, but you never know. Try telling her that voting is what Americans do, and she should do it at least once before she moves on. And try it as an absentee or early voter, when she will not be upset by lines of people behind and around her. Have you tried organizing the other abuelitas to register her and then escort her to the polling place? I understand that in many border households it's the "little grandmothers" who propel the family's GOTV effort.  

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by: WoodyNYC @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 09:42:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

SUSA FL-Pres Poll - McCain by 6

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Take it for a grain of salt considering the internals of this poll are complete BS.  This poll is composed of 43% republicans, 38% democrats, 17% independents.  Anyone who knows anything about FL can tell you there is no way in hell republicans have a 5% edge in voters.  It's 50/50 R/D or better for us.

McCain - 50
Obama - 44

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 18:31:15 PM CDT

Will be interesting to see how this impacts Republican redistricting strategy

Remember that the Republican strategy in re-drawing the Texas map was not to eliminate Latino or African American districts, but to eliminate white Democratic districts -- a cynical, racist attempt to make the GOP the white party, and the Democrats the black and brown party in Texas.  Look at who they went after -- Charlie Stenholm (successfully), Nick Lampson (successfully for a time), Chet Edwards (unsuccessfully), Max Sandlin (successfully, but he got to marry Stephanie Herseth, so he's doing OK!) -- and I may be missing one or two others.  They had gone so far in this direction they had to tinker with South Texas enough to be able to beat Bonilla.  As these demographics change, this party is going to have a hell of a recent history to back away from.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:02:48 PM CDT

Chris Bell was the other

Congressman Chris Bell was drawn into a majority Hispanic district in 2004 and got destroyed something like 65-35% in the Dem primary.  Bell did run for Governor in 2006 and only lost by about 9 points.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:11:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thanks, I knew there were more, and also ...

Martin Frost, who was drawn out of his Democratic urban/suburban Dallas district (the district Eddie Bernice Johnson represents was made overwhelmingly black and Democratic), and he put up a great fight, but lost to Pete Sessions.  There's a perfect example of a district that, with only a little bit of not-even-that-creative tinkering could be made Democratic leaning without endangering any other district.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:15:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Also remember Jim Turner

who decided to just retire than to run in a district that he's never seen before (his district was spliced into like 4 or 5 different ones)

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by: KainIIIC @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 20:32:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

They went after Lloyd Doggett

But he was another Anglo who survived the ethnic-cleansing gerrymander, to the credit of the Hispanic constituents of his newly reshaped district that stretched from his Austin base to the Rio Grande River in the Lower Valley. Fortunately, when Bonilla's illegal district was redrawn by a panel of judges, his district also got a nip and tuck, and he again represents a compact district almost entirely within the Austin Metropolitan Area. Another reason the reichtwing hates "activist" judges -- they try to be fair!

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 22:27:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And Ralph Hall.

Who flipped to the GOP rather than retire (there was no way to win as a Dem in his new district).

In total, they went for Martin Frost, Lloyd Doggett, Charlie Stenholm, Nick Lampson, Jim Turner, Ralph Hall, Chet Edwards, and Chris Bell.  Every single white Democrat.  Eight of em.  Only two held on, Doggett and Chet, and Doggett had to run in a Hispanic majority district and call in every chit he had ever earned to do it.  Only Chet Edwards survived in a district drawn to be Republican.  Well, and Ralph Hall, who survived by becoming a Republican.

I wonder if there has been any redistricting ever that has wiped out five incumbents from one party.  The Reconstruction Era saw some of that I'm sure.  The Depression could have too, but most of the Congressmen lost at the same time as the legislatures flipped, right?  Or was the 1931 redistricting involved at all?  

Anyway, most states aren't big enough to hold that many seats, although in the era before the West was born the big Eastern states had a few dozen seats apiece.

Anyway, I was a 21 year old in Austin during all of this and I was obviously traumatized.

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by: texas dem @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 17:53:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Correction

He was drawn into a district with a large black and Hispanic population, and was defeated by Al Green, a black candidate.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:16:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Great news for Skelly

Those numbers are really going to make this a race if he can capitalize on them.

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by: Populista @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:16:44 PM CDT

Anyone know what district or districts...

All of those Katrina evacuees fled to?  I think there were tens of thousands of mostly black people who relocated to the Houston area after the flood.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:20:09 PM CDT

My guess

Districts 22 (Lampson) and 2 (Poe, and Lampson's former district)

25, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 19:49:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

How the hell

did Ted Poe not get a Democrat running against him this cycle?  They probably wouldn't have won but still, what the fuck?  Poe is one of the most batshit crazy members of the Texas delegation and represents a district that's a third minority.  He won with 66% in '06 but was opposed by an absolute nobody.  The district is only R+12 (which sounds a bit nuts "only").  

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by: itistherabbit @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 04:42:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Very true

The demographics aren't there yet to defeat Poe, but I wish we had a strong candidate running in that district.  I've seen Poe ranting against illegals on TV quite a few times.  I'm not sure how that guy can survive in that district once the demographics start catching up with him.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:12:52 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

PVI

Take the PVI of Texas house seats with a grain of salt.  Bush being from the state really brings up the Presidential numbers for Republicans here.  I'd say TX-2 is about R+8, and getting more Democratic, especially Jefferson County.  Same with TX-7, I'd say it's really R+9-10, and trending strongly Democratic (Bush did 9 points worse here in 04 than 00)

16, Male, MI-01

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by: Menhen @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 12:44:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Asian growth in TX-22

The very high Asian growth in the 22nd is in.  I know part of the space industry is located there with many high income related jobs.  Could that be part of the reason for the large Asian growth in that district?  

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 20:46:40 PM CDT

Asians like H-town

Houston was for some decades a racially balanced city roughly one third white, one third black, one third Hispanic. After the Vietnam war, many refugees were resettled in Texas, including many up and down the coast in fishing towns. Uh, where there already were plenty of fishermen, thanks anyway. Others were settled in the growing city of Houston, and that community became a magnet for other refugees (including many of Chinese ancestry) as they relocated on their own from where they had been relocated by the govt and the social agencies. Of course, this is the classic immigrant story well known in New York and other cities back East: Once an immigrant community finds a home, it attracts others.

Houston also has a big population whose origins lie in the Indian subcontinent; the Sharpstown area looks like a new New Delhi, with sari shops and curry spots and furniture importers etc. (The former Robert E. Lee High School is now the Lee High School, with representatives from some 50  nations among its student body.) But none of these Asian groups are ghettoized, they are assimilated in every industry and line of work, including politics.

I'd bet the Asian immigrants  in Houston have had an easier time adapting than say, the Hmong in the Twin Cities. The nation's fourth largest city is notorious for being hot and humid half the year or more, but I bet it isn't any worse than the climate in Bangladesh or Vietnam.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 21:41:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Asians + the voting populace

This is a question I have had since I first volunteered for Lampson in 2006. I was calling lists and there were several Vietnamese names to call. In South Houston, Asians (specifically Vietnamese) are an extremely fast growing populace. IF we are serious about taking Texas, we need to increase our margins in the urban areas which in Houston requires significant outreach to the Asian community.

So, my question is this, we know African Americans are usually 90% Dem, Hispanics lean Dem and are moving further into our corner, but what about asians? What are their voting patterns and what issues are important to them?

25, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 21:58:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

quite mixed

http://www.asian-nation.org/20...

it states that the National Election Pool showed that Asian-Americans voted for Kerry 56-44, while LA-Times showed that Kerry won them 64-36.

Anecdoteally (from personal experience), Koreans tend to be the most conservative of the group while Vietnamese tend to be the most liberal, with the Taiwanese being pretty moderately split. Overall, American-Asians tend to be much more moderate than White. I've got no direct evidence for South Asians and Pacific Islanders, but I also imagine that they lean decidedly towards Democrats.

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by: KainIIIC @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 22:52:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

talk out my ass

Where a minority is highly concentrated into a "chinatown" for instance, it tends to deal with the outside world as a bloc.  So the really complex internal politics mostly stop "at the water's edge", and that community can go strongly to one party or another, depending on who's offering a better deal.

Where the minority is more dispersed into a community, matters are a little more complicated, because a lot of times the community doesn't have the required density in any one area to really swing an election, and as such isn't strong enough to engage in dealmaking.  I'm gonna guess out my ass that mobilizing such communities to be political is somewhat more difficult, because their interests do not necessarily overlap with the concerns of majority-community voters, and because they're not concentrated enough to force matters of interest to them onto the campaign menu.  

So, generalizing about Asian voters is not going to be easy, because the circumstances in which you find them are very heterogenous.

In Houston though, sure, Asian voters are mostly Democrats.  I'm again going to guess that the Chinese are more reachable for the GOP, whereas the religious politics of the Texas GOP have put the South Asians completely out of reach for a generation.

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by: texas dem @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 18:13:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That can be true among other races too

Where the minority is more dispersed into a community, matters are a little more complicated, because a lot of times the community doesn't have the required density in any one area to really swing an election, and as such isn't strong enough to engage in dealmaking.

In states where the populations of a minority are very small and widely dispersed, such as blacks in the midwest, studies have shown that they vote less homogenous.  For example, blacks in NE or ID may only vote 50-60% Democratic as opposed to 90+% Democratic in big cities and in large urban states.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 19:01:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

TX Hispanics were split in 2004 Presidential race

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

Kerry 50%
Bush 49%

Though I'm sure the split will be far bigger in 2008 without a republican Texan running.

Unfortunately Asians only made up 1% of 2004 TX voters and don't register in the exit poll.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 18:56:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Part of the Space Industry?

All of the Houston Space Community is in the Harris County portion of TX-22.

My family (my dad works for United Space Alliance) lives in North Galveston County, still TX-22.

25, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 21:54:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Your dad works for USA?

That's funny.  One of my best friends from high school just had a job interview with them last week.  I heard they're great to work for.  One of my uncles (the black sheep Republican in the family), who used to work for Lockheed Martin was going to work there when it was starting up in the mid-90's but then he had a heart attack and retired.

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by: itistherabbit @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 04:59:53 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

My "part" I meant the Texas part of the space industry

There is a big chunk of the overall U.S. space industry in my neck of the woods as well, Cape Canaveral.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:09:53 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Would you mind crossposting this?

... to http://www.burntorangereport.com ? This is an excellent piece and I've love to have it in front of our Texas audience.  

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by: KTinTX @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 21:06:28 PM CDT

Sure

I'll do that tomorrow. I don't have a lot of first-hand knowledge about Texas, so, yeah, it'll be good to get feedback from people on the ground.

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by: Crisitunity @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 23:37:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good diary

First, this is a really good diary.  Thank you.

Second, polling is generally based on "likely voters".  The enormous bulk of the growth in the population will be considered "unlikely voters".  Polling firms are really struggling with information like what you have.  It's not like they are unaware, but they don't know how to process it.

Third, in many state (not Texas), there is a voter registration/GOTV effort unlike anything we have seen at this scale in our nation's history. I believe that it means that polling Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico and Missouri are underestimating Obama's real strength.

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by: smoker1 @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 22:02:45 PM CDT

it would help

if you gave the incumbent Representatives of the districts, just to make things very easy to interpret. TX-07 is Culberson's district, right?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 22:53:32 PM CDT

Absolutely

I'll take the lazy man's approach instead of building another column: 2 (Poe), 7 (Culberson), 8 (Brady), 9 (Al Green), 10 (McCaul), 14 (Paul), 18 (Jackson Lee), 22 (Lampson), 29 (Gene Green). 3 (Sam Johnson), 4 (Hall), 5 (Hensarling), 6 (Barton), 12 (Granger), 24 (Marchand), 26 (Burgess), 30 (E.B. Johnson), 32 (Sessions).

The 2 that are Likely R are Culberson (7) and McCaul (10); the rest are uncompetitive (there was a surprising poll in the 32nd, but the money's not there this cycle).

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by: Crisitunity @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 23:43:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

CD-32

Sad there's no money there.  Roberson isn't too bad of a candidate.  Not ideal, but still not bad.

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by: itistherabbit @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 05:03:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

thanks, don't want sound like

the guy too lazy to look the districts up, but it really helps. Thanks.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 14:27:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

wow, demographic changes

are really moving in our direction. It's just like California in early 1990s after a similarily popular former Republican Governor had previously dominated it Presidentially. The McCain/Bush Sr. similarities are also striking. But, with that kind of growth I don't see how they can maintain wins. Look at TX-22. That makes me bullish on Lampson's chances, I mean 100,000 growth in black and hispanic populations? If minority turnout is high enough, hewins, plain and simple.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 22:57:32 PM CDT

Beautiful Diary

Great breakdown.  But it's still a wait and see to what comes of these numbers.  Very much so a "...".  Noriega will be a test run, but hopefully we'll know for sure by 2010 (Governor's race, probable senate special election).

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by: itistherabbit @ Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 05:08:10 AM CDT

Any plans for a 2008 Update?

Now that the 2008 population estimates have been released, I think it'd be helpful to see if trends have been slowed by the recession or have continued to plod stoically onwards.

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by: BigTentProgressive @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 12:35:02 PM CDT