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SSP Daily Digest: 4/7

by: Crisitunity

Tue Apr 07, 2009 at 5:03 PM EDT


MN-Sen: After the court-ordered opening of the 351 previously rejected absentee ballots, Al Franken's lead just grew to 312 votes (up from 225 votes after the hand recount). Although the Minnesota Supreme Court still has to rule on some miscellaneous issues (the possibility of some double-counts), these questions affect fewer than 300 ballots, meaning that it is now mathematically impossible for Norm Coleman to prevail.

RI-Gov: After backing off and saying he wouldn't decide anything until May, it seems like Lincoln Chafee has turned around again and has officially formed his exploratory committee. He will be "putting together a plan that will lay the groundwork for an Independent campaign for governor in 2010."

PA-Sen: Arlen Specter has come out firing against Pat Toomey's likely primary challenge... and he's already shooting blanks. He had to pull down and revise his attack ad for a factual error. He had accused Toomey of having traded credit default swaps while a Wall Street trader in the 80s (turns out CDSs hadn't been invented yet at that point). Trying a new tack on today's Morning Joe, Specter said that Toomey is too conservative to win statewide, accusing him of being "to the right of Rick Santorum."

AR-Sen: Looks like Wal-Mart may have sent Blanche Lincoln a cheap Chinese-made horse head for her bed. Lincoln, who supported the Employee Free Choice Act last time it came up, has announced she won't be supporting it this time around, at least "in its current form." Even if Franken gets seated and Specter flip-flops again, this probably defers EFCA until after 2010 (unless it passes in a gutted form).

NV-Sen: John Ensign is making his first speaking appearance in Iowa later this spring. Signs of a presidential run? Possible, considering the paltry lot the GOP has on tap so far. This is of SSP interest primarily because Ensign is up for re-election in 2012 and would leave behind an open seat in this newly blue seat in order to run.

IL-Sen: Big first-quarter haul for Treasurer (and Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias, the only announced candidate for IL-Sen so far. He pulled in $1.1 million, none of which was from corporate PACs.

FL-Sen: When asked for his assessment of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's job performance, Democratic Senate candidate Kendrick Meek dodged the question, telling the St. Petersburg Times that "I haven't yet reviewed his work". Sharp answer! (J)

FL-Gov: Hey, pallie - you better watch it! Charles Bronson says he's going to run for governor of Florida if Charles Crist runs for the Senate. And you thought Charles Bronson was dead! Wrong again, pallie! (D)

FL-02: State senator Al Lawson, who's primarying Allen Boyd from the left, seems like he won't be pulling punches in going after Boyd. Lawson (who's said a few Blue Doggish things of his own in the past) says "From my perspective, a Blue Dog is just a closet Republican," and is "committed to being a true Democrat."

LA-Legislature: There were three special elections in Louisiana legislative races over the weekend (a Democratic senate seat in Opelousas, a Democratic house seat in New Orleans, and a GOP house seat in Baton Rouge suburbs). Despite the GOP contesting all three seats, Democrats held the line in their two open seats (including one to replace Don Cravins, who's moved to Washington). The candidates in both runoffs will be Democrats, meaning Dems will hold their 4-seat edge in the senate and 1-seat edge in the house.  

IL-05: It's special election day in the dark, dark blue 5th. Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley faces off against GOP activist (and Minutewoman) Rosanna Pulido and a Green party candidate. In a big surprise, SSP will not be liveblogging the results.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/7
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Hasn't been mentioned yet
But Ted Stevens conviction has been thrown out, as it was expected to, due to prosecutorial misconduct.  

That was mentioned in the 4/3 daily digest


16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
Judge Now Going After Prosecutors
The judge has initiated criminal contempt proceedings against the original prosecutorial team.  http://legaltimes.typepad.com/...

Never piss off a federal judge.


[ Parent ]
They should be prosecuted
Anyone who not only screws up an open and shut case, but resorts to illegal conduct to do it should themselves be prosecuted.

[ Parent ]
RI-Gov
I sort of felt that the self-imposed May deadline was still there for Linc. Lotta dudes create exploratory committees that go nowhere (though I'd bank on Linc running).

FL-02
I am not comfortable going after incumbents in swing districts absent exceptional circumstances.  FL-02 has an SPVI of R+5.5.  http://www.swingstateproject.c...  It's to the right of NY-20, which is basically a 50-50 district for us in an open seat race and a united party.  This strategy hurt Republicans and I hope the party does not go down the same road.

Lawson would lose
He'd lose in a general election to any halfway credible republican candidate.  And even if he did somehow win the primary and general in 2010 he'd get rolled in 2012 when redistricting takes effect.

[ Parent ]
And how exactly do you know that
With such certainty?

[ Parent ]
Because he's an AA
And his district is located in the little dixie part of Florida to put it bluntly.  I'm very familiar with the district.  Far too many white Dems would vote against him, trust me.

[ Parent ]
Coastal communities
Arent the coastal communities in that district socially moderate? I know Ft. Walton Beach and Destin is right by Boyd's (maybe some of it is even slightly in it) and ive been there a couple times and it definitely doesnt strike me as a hardcore conservative area. But maybe im wrong. And I know theres a whole lot more to Boyd's district than the coast.  

[ Parent ]
Ft. Walton and Destin are in FL-1
Panama City is in Boyd's district and is really hardcore conservative. The Democratic base is in Tallahassee and the minority counties around it, but the rest of the district is wingnut territory and it's really the only part of Florida treading AWAY from the Democrats.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Interesting to hear about Panama City
My aunt lived in Panama City Beach for a number of years before moving back to the Houston area a few years ago. I always thought thatd be an overall moderate, although fiscally conservative area. But ive never been to Panama City or Panama City Beach myself and i havent been to Destin or Ft. Walton Beach in probably 15 years.

[ Parent ]
Panama Beach?
LEt me put it this, Escambria County, Pensacola, was 59-40 McCain. Bay county, Panama City, was 70-29 McCain. It almost completely cancels out Tallahasse which is a Democratic bastion.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Not really.
It's not called the "Redneck Riviera" for nothing.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Maybe
Alot of northern liberal retirees will start to move there over the next 10-20 years and itll become alot more moderate. Im sure the home prices there are significantly better than SE FL. Its a beautiful area but i could never live there. too many hurricanes. And thats coming from someone who lives in a coastal area in Harris County and experienced Hurricane Ike. But overall theres so many more hurricanes there. Powerful ones, anyway.  

[ Parent ]
How do you know that?
There's little to no evidence of that happening.  Nearly all of the retirees to the Florida Panhandle for decades now have been conservatives from the midwest and other parts of the southeast.  I see no reason to think that trend will reverse.

But ya, hurricanes can hit anywhere in Florida.  I'm along the coast in Volusia County , and this is among the least hit parts of the state.  Yet in 2005 I was hit by THREE hurricanes in a span of one month.  


[ Parent ]
I see no evidence either
And I didnt mean to imply that it would happen or probably happen. I was just saying maybe it will. Im hoping it will.  

[ Parent ]
I really don't care if it happens
The Florida Panhandle is bleeding population.  It's population growth is dwarfed by Central and South Florida.  By 2012 the district lines for FL-01 will stretch even further and that part of Florida will barely have 2 CD's.

[ Parent ]
I'd usually agree with you except
a) Boyd is among the very, very worst of the Blue Dogs and vocally undermines the Democratic Party. With our large majority, I think the advantages to getting of Boyd outweigh the risks.

b) Any decent Republican weighing a challenge would have to get into the race long before the primary (which is late in Florida - September). So even if Lawson had a 50% chance of winning (he doesn't), a GOPer would still have an even chance of facing Boyd, which would mean a highly likely Republican loss in the general, even for a good candidate. That's a pretty serious deterrent, if you ask me.


[ Parent ]
I don't think it would take a very credible Republican
to beat Lawson.  Not only is Boyd conservative, but he's entrenched.  And even if Lawson did get elected in 2010, he will certainly lose in '12 because of gerrymandering and a credible Republican candidate.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
It wouldn't
A lackluster 2nd or even 3rd tier candidate would beat Lawson in 2010.  And he'd be a guaranteed loss in 2012 even if he did win.

It's Boyd or a republican in FL-02, there is no other option.


[ Parent ]
right
and Boyd's not that old, so he could still be holding the seat after 2012 redistricting and beyond.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
Ya
If Boyd wins next year the 2012 redistricting should only make his seat marginally more republican.  Certainly not enough to oust him.  Florida repubs have given up on trying to defeat Boyd.  They just have to hope he loses the primary in 2010 or retires soon.  Thankfully both are unlikely.

Boyd is a headache but the only alternative is a repub that votes with us 2% of the time.


[ Parent ]
Louisiana
looks like the Dems actually have a 23-16 majority in the state senate.

btw, it is supremely satisfying to see that Ensign is looking to bail.  A failed presidential run is an easy way to gracefully depart the scene.


they've had one for sometime
means nothing with how conservative some of the Dems are.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Ensign
would look like Winston Churchill compared to the lame Republicans currently making noise about running.  We'd likely pick up a seat, which would be great, but it could also be great for Obama if a rational mainstream conservative is attacked in the primaries by the more wingnutty candidates.

Vermont
Also wanted to say Im very happy that Vermont now has same sex marriage, as the legislature overrode Douglas's veto. I use to only be pro-gay marriage if it was the voters who approved of it in a referendum but im now for it whether its the courts who rule in favor of it or the legislature.

Whoops
Ive noticed the diary now. Wasnt in the main page and i keep forgetting theres diaries that arent on the main one.

[ Parent ]
Teaser from Politicalwire:
Bunning loses to any Democrat.

PPP tests him against Mongiardo and Conway, as well as potential candidates Chandler and Luallen, and finds Bunning goes down to all of them.  Moreover, the incumbent senator has a 28% approval rating.

Actual results to be released tomorrow apparently.  Again, I'm worried he is imploding too fast.  If he weakens any further, he invites primary challengers.  Starting to remind me of Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski back in 2005.  I thought we had that one in the bag, and then well...things changed.


and I'm looking forward to seeing how "lousy"
Bunning's fund-raising has really been.
When do those numbers come out?

[ Parent ]
I'm like skaje
I fear Bunning's poll numbers and fund raising are collapsing at too fast a rate.  He's likely to withdraw or face a top tier challenger unless he pulls out of this tailspin.

[ Parent ]
He needs Sarah Palin to campaign for him.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
GA: GOV
As I posted yesterday, Dubose Porter (D-Dublin) the GA House Minority leader announced he will be running for Governor in 2010.

Very folksy guy who has served since 1983 from a tough rural GA district in middle Georgia.  


Ehh
Sounds like a decent guy.  But I still hope voters coalesce around Baker.  So far we have multiple white candidates running and Baker is the only black candidate.  If that's how things end up Baker should win.  

[ Parent ]
I think Porter is black too
but Baker is the best Dem.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I don't think so
If he's black he's officially the whitest black guy I've ever seen.  Even more and Rep. Butterfield.

http://www.legis.state.ga.us/l...


[ Parent ]
Dubose is definately not black
But I have heard he went to a rap concert in Denver to help promote Georgia's "rap industry" FWIW.  

[ Parent ]
Definitely*********
My bad

[ Parent ]
The most important thing
Is that in the GOP state lege race in LA, the candidate backed by Bobby Jindal got crushed:

http://www.nola.com/news/index...


Haha.
Pwned.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Chafee
Oops, I didn't notice the story in this thread when I commented in the thread below.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

MN-Sen or NY-20 first?
Taking bets predictions here.  Which race will be resolved first?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

NY-20
Norm is taking it all the way to SCOTUS.

[ Parent ]
They won't take up the case


[ Parent ]

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