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New Swing State PVIs for All Congressional Districts

by: sicembears

Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 1:27 PM EDT


I previously posted new Cook PVIs for all congressional districts.  As many noted, the numbers seem screwy.  This is a function of the formula Cook uses to calculate PVI.

Currently, Cook uses this formula for calculating PVI:

Cook PVI = ((Gore's 2000 two-party vote share in congressional district - Kerry's 2004 two-party vote share nationally) + (Kerry's 2004 two-party vote share in congressional district - Kerry's 2004 two-party vote share nationally))/2.  Positive numbers are Democratic PVIs and negative numbers are Republican PVIs.

The entire problem with the Cook PVI is that it compares 2000 state results with 2004 national results.  The USA as a whole should have a PVI of 0.0.  But, by comparing 2000 state results with 2004 national results (apples to oranges) it screws things up and, in fact, the USA as a whole had a PVI of R+0.8 for 2005-2008.  Using this same formula to calculate new PVIs after 2008 elections results in the USA as a whole having a PVI of D+2.5.  This is totally screwy and defeats the purpose of the Cook PVI which is to show how much a congressional district is more democratic or republican than the nation as a whole.

The formula fix to correct this problem is simple:

PVI = (Kerry's 2004 two-party vote share in particular congressional district - Kerry's 2004 two-party vote share nationally) + (Obama's 2008 two-party vote share in congressional district - Obama's 2008 two-party vote share nationally)/2.  Positive numbers are Democratic PVIs and negative numbers are Republican PVIs.  Using this formula to calculate PVI, results in the USA as a whole having a PVI of 0.  So, the numbers for each congressional district truly show how much more Democratic or Republican leaning the district is versus the nation as a whole, unlike the current Cook PVI numbers.

Past discussion of the Cook PVI, problems with it, and how to fix it are here, here, and here.

Using this formula and based on Swing State's Compilation of presidential results for all 435 Congressional Districts, I have calculated "Swing State" PVIs for each congressional district, for both before the 2008 Presidential Election and afterwards:

State     CD     Member     Party           Old SPVI           New SPVI           Change            
AK AL Young (R) R+ 14.9 R+ 13.1 D+ 1.8
AL 1 Bonner (R) R+ 12.4 R+ 14.0 R+ 1.6
AL 2 Bright (D) R+ 13.8 R+ 16.5 R+ 2.7
AL 3 Rogers (R) R+ 5.1 R+ 8.8 R+ 3.7
AL 4 Aderholt (R) R+ 16.5 R+ 25.5 R+ 9.0
AL 5 Griffith (D) R+ 7.4 R+ 12.3 R+ 5.0
AL 6 Bachus (R) R+ 25.9 R+ 28.6 R+ 2.7
AL 7 Davis (D) D+ 16.1 D+ 17.5 D+ 1.3
AR 1 Berry (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 7.9 R+ 7.6
AR 2 Snyder (D) R+ 0.5 R+ 4.5 R+ 4.0
AR 3 Boozman (R) R+ 12.1 R+ 15.5 R+ 3.4
AR 4 Ross (D) R+ 0.0 R+ 6.9 R+ 6.9
AZ 1 Kirkpatrick (D) R+ 2.8 R+ 5.8 R+ 3.0
AZ 2 Franks (R) R+ 9.4 R+ 12.8 R+ 3.4
AZ 3 Shadegg (R) R+ 6.9 R+ 9.3 R+ 2.4
AZ 4 Pastor (D) D+ 13.6 D+ 13.1 R+ 0.5
AZ 5 Mitchell (D) R+ 4.6 R+ 4.8 R+ 0.1
AZ 6 Flake (R) R+ 13.0 R+ 14.4 R+ 1.4
AZ 7 Grijalva (D) D+ 9.2 D+ 6.1 R+ 3.1
AZ 8 Giffords (D) R+ 2.3 R+ 4.5 R+ 2.2
CA 1 Thompson (D) D+ 9.7 D+ 13.1 D+ 3.4
CA 2 Herger (R) R+ 13.3 R+ 10.6 D+ 2.7
CA 3 Lungren (R) R+ 7.5 R+ 5.5 D+ 1.9
CA 4 McClintock (R) R+ 11.7 R+ 9.9 D+ 1.8
CA 5 Matsui (D) D+ 12.9 D+ 15.3 D+ 2.4
CA 6 Woolsey (D) D+ 19.9 D+ 23.3 D+ 3.4
CA 7 Miller (D) D+ 18.3 D+ 19.2 D+ 0.9
CA 8 Pelosi (D) D+ 35.3 D+ 35.5 D+ 0.3
CA 9 Lee (D) D+ 36.9 D+ 37.1 D+ 0.3
CA 10 Tauscher (D) D+ 8.9 D+ 11.7 D+ 2.8
CA 11 McNerney (D) R+ 3.8 R+ 1.2 D+ 2.6
CA 12 Speier (D) D+ 21.7 D+ 22.9 D+ 1.2
CA 13 Stark (D) D+ 20.9 D+ 22.4 D+ 1.5
CA 14 Eshoo (D) D+ 17.5 D+ 20.7 D+ 3.2
CA 15 Honda (D) D+ 13.6 D+ 15.3 D+ 1.7
CA 16 Lofgren (D) D+ 15.3 D+ 16.0 D+ 0.7
CA 17 Farr (D) D+ 16.1 D+ 18.8 D+ 2.8
CA 18 Cardoza (D) D+ 2.6 D+ 3.6 D+ 1.1
CA 19 Radanovich (R) R+ 10.2 R+ 8.6 D+ 1.7
CA 20 Costa (D) D+ 4.0 D+ 4.8 D+ 0.8
CA 21 Nunes (R) R+ 13.5 R+ 12.6 D+ 0.8
CA 22 McCarthy (R) R+ 16.8 R+ 16.2 D+ 0.7
CA 23 Capps (D) D+ 8.8 D+ 11.9 D+ 3.1
CA 24 Gallegly (R) R+ 5.6 R+ 3.7 D+ 1.9
CA 25 McKeon (R) R+ 7.9 R+ 5.5 D+ 2.4
CA 26 Dreier (R) R+ 4.6 R+ 3.0 D+ 1.6
CA 27 Sherman (D) D+ 11.8 D+ 12.6 D+ 0.7
CA 28 Berman (D) D+ 24.0 D+ 23.4 R+ 0.6
CA 29 Schiff (D) D+ 11.8 D+ 14.6 D+ 2.8
CA 30 Waxman (D) D+ 19.2 D+ 17.8 R+ 1.4
CA 31 Becerra (D) D+ 29.5 D+ 28.5 R+ 1.0
CA 32 (D) D+ 16.0 D+ 14.8 R+ 1.2
CA 33 Watson (D) D+ 35.2 D+ 34.6 R+ 0.6
CA 34 Roybal-Allard (D) D+ 22.1 D+ 21.9 R+ 0.2
CA 35 Waters (D) D+ 31.8 D+ 31.5 R+ 0.3
CA 36 Harman (D) D+ 10.0 D+ 11.2 D+ 1.3
CA 37 Richardson (D) D+ 26.6 D+ 26.6 R+ 0.1
CA 38 Napolitano (D) D+ 19.0 D+ 17.8 R+ 1.2
CA 39 Sanchez (D) D+ 11.9 D+ 12.3 D+ 0.3
CA 40 Royce (R) R+ 8.7 R+ 7.5 D+ 1.1
CA 41 Lewis (R) R+ 9.7 R+ 10.1 R+ 0.4
CA 42 Miller (R) R+ 10.9 R+ 9.6 D+ 1.4
CA 43 Baca (D) D+ 12.4 D+ 12.8 D+ 0.3
CA 44 Calvert (R) R+ 6.6 R+ 5.8 D+ 0.9
CA 45 Bono (R) R+ 3.8 R+ 3.2 D+ 0.6
CA 46 Rohrabacher (R) R+ 6.6 R+ 5.5 D+ 1.1
CA 47 Sanchez (D) D+ 3.8 D+ 4.1 D+ 0.3
CA 48 Campbell (R) R+ 8.7 R+ 5.8 D+ 2.9
CA 49 Issa (R) R+ 11.4 R+ 10.1 D+ 1.4
CA 50 Bilbray (R) R+ 5.1 R+ 3.0 D+ 2.1
CA 51 Filner (D) D+ 6.3 D+ 7.4 D+ 1.0
CA 52 Hunter (R) R+ 9.7 R+ 9.1 D+ 0.6
CA 53 Davis (D) D+ 11.5 D+ 14.3 D+ 2.8
CO 1 DeGette (D) D+ 17.3 D+ 20.9 D+ 3.6
CO 2 Udall (D) D+ 7.2 D+ 10.7 D+ 3.6
CO 3 Salazar (D) R+ 6.3 R+ 4.8 D+ 1.6
CO 4 Markey (D) R+ 9.1 R+ 5.8 D+ 3.4
CO 5 Lamborn (R) R+ 16.4 R+ 14.4 D+ 2.0
CO 6 Coffman (R) R+ 10.7 R+ 8.3 D+ 2.5
CO 7 Perlmutter (D) D+ 1.5 D+ 4.3 D+ 2.8
CT 1 Larson (D) D+ 13.4 D+ 12.4 R+ 1.0
CT 2 Courtney (D) D+ 6.8 D+ 6.1 R+ 0.6
CT 3 DeLauro (D) D+ 11.0 D+ 9.2 R+ 1.8
CT 4 Himes (D) D+ 4.6 D+ 5.3 D+ 0.7
CT 5 Murphy (D) D+ 2.9 D+ 2.4 R+ 0.5
DE AL Castle (R) D+ 5.6 D+ 6.9 D+ 1.3
FL 1 Miller (R) R+ 20.0 R+ 21.1 R+ 1.0
FL 2 Boyd (D) R+ 3.0 R+ 5.5 R+ 2.5
FL 3 Brown (D) D+ 15.5 D+ 18.1 D+ 2.7
FL 4 Crenshaw (R) R+ 17.0 R+ 16.5 D+ 0.5
FL 5 Brown-Waite (R) R+ 5.8 R+ 8.8 R+ 3.0
FL 6 Stearns (R) R+ 9.0 R+ 10.0 R+ 1.0
FL 7 Mica (R) R+ 5.0 R+ 6.5 R+ 1.5
FL 8 Grayson (D) R+ 4.0 R+ 2.2 D+ 1.8
FL 9 Bilirakis (R) R+ 5.0 R+ 6.0 R+ 1.0
FL 10 Young (R) D+ 0.5 R+ 0.7 R+ 1.2
FL 11 Castor (D) D+ 10.3 D+ 11.4 D+ 1.1
FL 12 Putnam (R) R+ 6.0 R+ 5.5 D+ 0.5
FL 13 Buchanan (R) R+ 4.7 R+ 5.5 R+ 0.7
FL 14 Mack (R) R+ 11.0 R+ 11.0 D+ 0.0
FL 15 Posey (R) R+ 5.0 R+ 5.5 R+ 0.5
FL 16 Rooney (R) R+ 3.0 R+ 4.5 R+ 1.5
FL 17 Meek (D) D+ 34.5 D+ 34.2 R+ 0.3
FL 18 Ros-Lehtinen (R) R+ 5.0 R+ 2.7 D+ 2.3
FL 19 Wexler (D) D+ 20.0 D+ 14.6 R+ 5.4
FL 20 Wasserman-Schultz (D) D+ 17.0 D+ 12.6 R+ 4.4
FL 21 Diaz-Balart (R) R+ 7.0 R+ 5.2 D+ 1.8
FL 22 Klein (D) D+ 2.5 D+ 0.8 R+ 1.7
FL 23 Hastings (D) D+ 28.5 D+ 28.3 R+ 0.2
FL 24 Kosmas (D) R+ 3.5 R+ 4.2 R+ 0.7
FL 25 Diaz-Balart (R) R+ 5.0 R+ 4.5 D+ 0.5
GA 1 Kingston (R) R+ 13.5 R+ 16.0 R+ 2.5
GA 2 Bishop (D) D+ 1.5 D+ 0.8 R+ 0.7
GA 3 Westmoreland (R) R+ 18.4 R+ 18.9 R+ 0.5
GA 4 Johnson (D) D+ 21.3 D+ 24.1 D+ 2.8
GA 5 Lewis (D) D+ 24.0 D+ 25.7 D+ 1.7
GA 6 Price (R) R+ 18.9 R+ 17.9 D+ 1.0
GA 7 Linder (R) R+ 19.0 R+ 16.5 D+ 2.5
GA 8 Marshall (D) R+ 9.0 R+ 10.0 R+ 1.0
GA 9 Deal (R) R+ 23.5 R+ 27.6 R+ 4.1
GA 10 Broun (R) R+ 13.5 R+ 14.5 R+ 1.0
GA 11 Gingrey (R) R+ 17.7 R+ 20.1 R+ 2.4
GA 12 Barrow (D) D+ 1.2 D+ 0.8 R+ 0.4
GA 13 Scott (D) D+ 9.0 D+ 14.6 D+ 5.7
HI 1 Abercrombie (D) D+ 6.2 D+ 11.0 D+ 4.8
HI 2 Hirono (D) D+ 8.9 D+ 14.0 D+ 5.1
IA 1 Braley (D) D+ 4.1 D+ 4.8 D+ 0.8
IA 2 Loebsack (D) D+ 5.9 D+ 7.2 D+ 1.3
IA 3 Boswell (D) D+ 0.7 D+ 1.3 D+ 0.6
IA 4 Latham (R) R+ 0.5 D+ 0.1 D+ 0.6
IA 5 King (R) R+ 9.2 R+ 9.1 D+ 0.1
ID 1 Minnick (D) R+ 19.8 R+ 17.7 D+ 2.1
ID 2 Simpson (R) R+ 19.6 R+ 17.5 D+ 2.1
IL 1 Rush (D) D+ 34.0 D+ 33.8 R+ 0.2
IL 2 Jackson (D) D+ 34.0 D+ 35.8 D+ 1.8
IL 3 Lipinski (D) D+ 9.6 D+ 10.6 D+ 1.0
IL 4 Gutierrez (D) D+ 29.9 D+ 31.6 D+ 1.8
IL 5 (D) D+ 17.0 D+ 19.1 D+ 2.2
IL 6 Roskam (R) R+ 3.3 D+ 0.6 D+ 3.9
IL 7 Davis (D) D+ 33.9 D+ 34.3 D+ 0.4
IL 8 Bean (D) R+ 6.1 R+ 0.9 D+ 5.1
IL 9 Schakowsky (D) D+ 18.7 D+ 19.5 D+ 0.8
IL 10 Kirk (R) D+ 3.0 D+ 6.1 D+ 3.1
IL 11 Halvorson (D) R+ 1.8 R+ 0.9 D+ 0.8
IL 12 Costello (D) D+ 4.3 D+ 2.3 R+ 2.0
IL 13 Biggert (R) R+ 5.4 R+ 1.4 D+ 3.9
IL 14 Foster (D) R+ 5.1 R+ 1.2 D+ 3.9
IL 15 Johnson (R) R+ 6.8 R+ 6.2 D+ 0.6
IL 16 Manzullo (R) R+ 5.1 R+ 2.0 D+ 3.2
IL 17 Hare (D) D+ 3.8 D+ 3.1 R+ 0.7
IL 18 Schock (R) R+ 6.1 R+ 5.7 D+ 0.3
IL 19 Shimkus (R) R+ 8.9 R+ 9.3 R+ 0.4
IN 1 Visclosky (D) D+ 6.8 D+ 7.9 D+ 1.0
IN 2 Donnelly (D) R+ 4.8 R+ 2.2 D+ 2.6
IN 3 Souder (R) R+ 17.2 R+ 13.8 D+ 3.3
IN 4 Buyer (R) R+ 18.0 R+ 14.4 D+ 3.7
IN 5 Burton (R) R+ 20.2 R+ 16.9 D+ 3.3
IN 6 Pence (R) R+ 11.6 R+ 10.3 D+ 1.3
IN 7 Carson (D) D+ 7.8 D+ 13.6 D+ 5.9
IN 8 Ellsworth (D) R+ 9.3 R+ 8.2 D+ 1.1
IN 9 Hill (D) R+ 7.9 R+ 6.3 D+ 1.6
KS 1 Moran (R) R+ 21.1 R+ 22.8 R+ 1.7
KS 2 Jenkins (R) R+ 8.0 R+ 9.4 R+ 1.3
KS 3 Moore (D) R+ 5.2 R+ 3.2 D+ 1.9
KS 4 Tiahrt (R) R+ 12.9 R+ 13.5 R+ 0.6
KY 1 Whitfield (R) R+ 10.9 R+ 14.4 R+ 3.4
KY 2 Guthrie (R) R+ 13.7 R+ 14.9 R+ 1.2
KY 3 Yarmuth (D) D+ 1.5 D+ 2.6 D+ 1.1
KY 4 Davis (R) R+ 12.5 R+ 13.6 R+ 1.2
KY 5 Rogers (R) R+ 8.8 R+ 15.9 R+ 7.1
KY 6 Chandler (D) R+ 7.4 R+ 8.6 R+ 1.2
LA 1 Scalise (R) R+ 19.6 R+ 23.9 R+ 4.4
LA 2 Cao (R) D+ 27.1 D+ 24.0 R+ 3.1
LA 3 Melancon (D) R+ 5.6 R+ 11.6 R+ 6.0
LA 4 Fleming (R) R+ 7.4 R+ 10.8 R+ 3.4
LA 5 Alexander (R) R+ 10.2 R+ 13.8 R+ 3.6
LA 6 Cassidy (R) R+ 7.4 R+ 10.1 R+ 2.7
LA 7 Boustany (R) R+ 8.2 R+ 13.7 R+ 5.5
MA 1 Olver (D) D+ 14.1 D+ 13.6 R+ 0.5
MA 2 Neal (D) D+ 11.5 D+ 8.7 R+ 2.8
MA 3 McGovern (D) D+ 11.7 D+ 8.7 R+ 3.0
MA 4 Frank (D) D+ 18.2 D+ 14.3 R+ 4.0
MA 5 Tsongas (D) D+ 10.2 D+ 8.0 R+ 2.3
MA 6 Tierney (D) D+ 10.4 D+ 7.4 R+ 3.1
MA 7 Markey (D) D+ 18.2 D+ 15.3 R+ 3.0
MA 8 Capuano (D) D+ 32.3 D+ 32.1 R+ 0.2
MA 9 Lynch (D) D+ 14.6 D+ 10.9 R+ 3.7
MA 10 Delahunt (D) D+ 7.8 D+ 4.8 R+ 3.0
MD 1 Kratovil (D) R+ 10.5 R+ 12.4 R+ 1.9
MD 2 Ruppersberger (D) D+ 6.8 D+ 6.7 R+ 0.2
MD 3 Sarbanes (D) D+ 6.4 D+ 6.2 R+ 0.3
MD 4 Edwards (D) D+ 29.2 D+ 31.1 D+ 1.9
MD 5 Hoyer (D) D+ 8.4 D+ 10.7 D+ 2.4
MD 6 Bartlett (R) R+ 13.8 R+ 13.6 D+ 0.1
MD 7 Cummings (D) D+ 24.6 D+ 25.5 D+ 0.9
MD 8 Van Hollen (D) D+ 19.4 D+ 21.0 D+ 1.6
ME 1 Pingree (D) D+ 5.4 D+ 7.7 D+ 2.2
ME 2 Michaud (D) D+ 2.8 D+ 3.4 D+ 0.5
MI 1 Stupak (D) R+ 3.1 R+ 2.5 D+ 0.6
MI 2 Hoekstra (R) R+ 10.2 R+ 7.3 D+ 2.9
MI 3 Ehlers (R) R+ 9.9 R+ 6.0 D+ 3.9
MI 4 Camp (R) R+ 4.8 R+ 3.5 D+ 1.4
MI 5 Kildee (D) D+ 11.1 D+ 10.6 R+ 0.5
MI 6 Upton (R) R+ 3.1 R+ 0.7 D+ 2.4
MI 7 Schauer (D) R+ 3.1 R+ 2.0 D+ 1.1
MI 8 Rogers (R) R+ 2.8 R+ 1.7 D+ 1.1
MI 9 Peters (D) R+ 1.0 D+ 1.6 D+ 2.6
MI 10 Miller (R) R+ 5.1 R+ 5.2 R+ 0.2
MI 11 McCotter (R) R+ 2.0 R+ 0.4 D+ 1.6
MI 12 Levin (D) D+ 12.1 D+ 12.4 D+ 0.3
MI 13 Kilpatrick (D) D+ 31.4 D+ 31.8 D+ 0.4
MI 14 Conyers (D) D+ 32.9 D+ 33.3 D+ 0.4
MI 15 Dingell (D) D+ 12.1 D+ 13.1 D+ 1.0
MN 1 Walz (D) R+ 1.6 R+ 1.2 D+ 0.4
MN 2 Kline (R) R+ 3.6 R+ 4.0 R+ 0.4
MN 3 Paulsen (R) R+ 1.3 R+ 0.4 D+ 0.9
MN 4 McCollum (D) D+ 12.1 D+ 12.7 D+ 0.6
MN 5 Ellison (D) D+ 20.6 D+ 22.4 D+ 1.8
MN 6 Bachmann (R) R+ 6.0 R+ 7.0 R+ 1.1
MN 7 Peterson (D) R+ 6.3 R+ 5.1 D+ 1.2
MN 8 Oberstar (D) D+ 3.6 D+ 2.6 R+ 1.0
MO 1 Clay (D) D+ 24.7 D+ 26.7 D+ 2.0
MO 2 Akin (R) R+ 9.6 R+ 9.0 D+ 0.6
MO 3 Carnahan (D) D+ 6.8 D+ 7.6 D+ 0.8
MO 4 Skelton (D) R+ 11.4 R+ 14.4 R+ 2.9
MO 5 Cleaver (D) D+ 11.2 D+ 10.9 R+ 0.3
MO 6 Graves (R) R+ 5.6 R+ 7.3 R+ 1.7
MO 7 Blunt (R) R+ 15.0 R+ 17.2 R+ 2.2
MO 8 Emerson (R) R+ 11.6 R+ 14.9 R+ 3.2
MO 9 Luetkemeyer (R) R+ 7.4 R+ 8.5 R+ 1.1
MS 1 Childers (D) R+ 10.6 R+ 13.5 R+ 2.9
MS 2 Thompson (D) D+ 9.4 D+ 11.6 D+ 2.2
MS 3 Harper (R) R+ 14.7 R+ 15.0 R+ 0.4
MS 4 Taylor (D) R+ 17.0 R+ 19.6 R+ 2.5
MT AL Rehberg (R) R+ 11.5 R+ 6.8 D+ 4.6
NC 1 Butterfield (D) D+ 8.1 D+ 8.9 D+ 0.8
NC 2 Etheridge (D) R+ 3.3 R+ 2.0 D+ 1.3
NC 3 Jones (R) R+ 15.8 R+ 16.0 R+ 0.2
NC 4 Price (D) D+ 5.0 D+ 8.4 D+ 3.3
NC 5 Foxx (R) R+ 16.2 R+ 15.4 D+ 0.8
NC 6 Coble (R) R+ 18.2 R+ 17.9 D+ 0.3
NC 7 McIntyre (D) R+ 3.5 R+ 5.5 R+ 2.0
NC 8 Kissell (D) R+ 3.8 R+ 2.0 D+ 1.8
NC 9 Myrick (R) R+ 13.1 R+ 10.5 D+ 2.6
NC 10 McHenry (R) R+ 15.8 R+ 16.5 R+ 0.7
NC 11 Shuler (D) R+ 7.6 R+ 6.0 D+ 1.6
NC 12 Watt (D) D+ 10.8 D+ 15.6 D+ 4.9
NC 13 Miller (D) D+ 1.5 D+ 4.8 D+ 3.3
ND AL Pomeroy (D) R+ 13.8 R+ 10.1 D+ 3.7
NE 1 Fortenberry (R) R+ 12.4 R+ 10.6 D+ 1.8
NE 2 Terry (R) R+ 9.8 R+ 6.6 D+ 3.2
NE 3 Smith (R) R+ 24.4 R+ 23.9 D+ 0.4
NH 1 Shea-Porter (D) R+ 1.1 R+ 0.5 D+ 0.6
NH 2 Hodes (D) D+ 2.0 D+ 3.3 D+ 1.3
NJ 1 Andrews (D) D+ 13.5 D+ 12.1 R+ 1.4
NJ 2 Lobiondo (R) D+ 3.1 D+ 0.8 R+ 2.3
NJ 3 Adler (D) D+ 2.8 R+ 0.5 R+ 3.3
NJ 4 Smith (R) R+ 1.5 R+ 5.5 R+ 4.0
NJ 5 Garrett (R) R+ 4.8 R+ 7.0 R+ 2.2
NJ 6 Pallone (D) D+ 10.8 D+ 7.6 R+ 3.2
NJ 7 Lance (R) R+ 1.3 R+ 2.0 R+ 0.7
NJ 8 Pascrell (D) D+ 10.9 D+ 10.1 R+ 0.8
NJ 9 Rothman (D) D+ 12.5 D+ 9.1 R+ 3.4
NJ 10 Payne (D) D+ 33.4 D+ 33.3 R+ 0.1
NJ 11 Frelinghuysen (R) R+ 6.3 R+ 7.5 R+ 1.1
NJ 12 Holt (D) D+ 6.7 D+ 5.1 R+ 1.6
NJ 13 Sires (D) D+ 22.1 D+ 21.2 R+ 0.9
NM 1 Heinrich (D) D+ 1.5 D+ 4.5 D+ 3.0
NM 2 Teague (D) R+ 6.6 R+ 5.8 D+ 0.9
NM 3 Lujan (D) D+ 5.1 D+ 6.9 D+ 1.7
NV 1 Berkley (D) D+ 8.1 D+ 10.2 D+ 2.1
NV 2 Heller (R) R+ 8.9 R+ 5.3 D+ 3.6
NV 3 Titus (D) D+ 0.5 D+ 1.6 D+ 1.1
NY 1 Bishop (D) D+ 2.6 R+ 0.2 R+ 2.8
NY 2 Israel (D) D+ 7.2 D+ 4.1 R+ 3.1
NY 3 King (R) D+ 1.3 R+ 3.7 R+ 5.1
NY 4 McCarthy (D) D+ 8.7 D+ 5.9 R+ 2.8
NY 5 Ackerman (D) D+ 16.8 D+ 12.4 R+ 4.4
NY 6 Meeks (D) D+ 37.3 D+ 35.7 R+ 1.6
NY 7 Crowley (D) D+ 26.9 D+ 26.1 R+ 0.9
NY 8 Nadler (D) D+ 27.1 D+ 22.1 R+ 4.9
NY 9 Weiner (D) D+ 13.0 D+ 4.6 R+ 8.5
NY 10 Towns (D) D+ 39.8 D+ 37.7 R+ 2.0
NY 11 Clarke (D) D+ 39.0 D+ 37.7 R+ 1.3
NY 12 Velazquez (D) D+ 32.7 D+ 32.6 R+ 0.1
NY 13 McMahon (D) D+ 0.1 R+ 4.2 R+ 4.3
NY 14 Maloney (D) D+ 25.5 D+ 25.5 D+ 0.1
NY 15 Rangel (D) D+ 42.2 D+ 41.2 R+ 1.0
NY 16 Serrano (D) D+ 42.9 D+ 41.2 R+ 1.6
NY 17 Engel (D) D+ 19.9 D+ 18.3 R+ 1.6
NY 18 Lowey (D) D+ 9.4 D+ 8.8 R+ 0.6
NY 19 Hall (D) R+ 2.3 R+ 2.7 R+ 0.4
NY 20 (D) R+ 3.4 R+ 2.5 D+ 0.9
NY 21 Tonko (D) D+ 8.0 D+ 6.4 R+ 1.6
NY 22 Hinchey (D) D+ 5.2 D+ 6.2 D+ 1.0
NY 23 McHugh (R) R+ 1.1 R+ 1.0 D+ 0.1
NY 24 Arcuri (D) R+ 1.3 R+ 2.0 R+ 0.7
NY 25 Maffei (D) D+ 2.6 D+ 2.6 D+ 0.0
NY 26 Lee (R) R+ 4.4 R+ 5.8 R+ 1.4
NY 27 Higgins (D) D+ 5.7 D+ 3.4 R+ 2.3
NY 28 Slaughter (D) D+ 13.9 D+ 15.4 D+ 1.6
NY 29 Massa (D) R+ 5.7 R+ 5.5 D+ 0.1
OH 1 Driehaus (D) R+ 1.3 D+ 1.1 D+ 2.4
OH 2 Schmidt (R) R+ 14.0 R+ 13.0 D+ 1.0
OH 3 Turner (R) R+ 3.3 R+ 4.2 R+ 0.9
OH 4 Jordan (R) R+ 14.3 R+ 14.7 R+ 0.4
OH 5 Latta (R) R+ 10.7 R+ 8.8 D+ 2.0
OH 6 Wilson (D) R+ 0.5 R+ 2.2 R+ 1.7
OH 7 Austria (R) R+ 6.6 R+ 7.0 R+ 0.4
OH 8 Boehner (R) R+ 13.3 R+ 14.2 R+ 0.9
OH 9 Kaptur (D) D+ 8.1 D+ 9.4 D+ 1.3
OH 10 Kucinich (D) D+ 7.7 D+ 8.2 D+ 0.5
OH 11 Fudge (D) D+ 32.1 D+ 32.6 D+ 0.5
OH 12 Tiberi (R) R+ 1.5 D+ 0.0 D+ 1.6
OH 13 Sutton (D) D+ 5.8 D+ 5.6 R+ 0.2
OH 14 LaTourette (R) R+ 3.1 R+ 2.7 D+ 0.4
OH 15 Kilroy (D) R+ 1.6 D+ 1.1 D+ 2.6
OH 16 Boccieri (D) R+ 4.4 R+ 3.7 D+ 0.7
OH 17 Ryan (D) D+ 13.6 D+ 11.9 R+ 1.7
OH 18 Space (D) R+ 6.7 R+ 6.5 D+ 0.1
OK 1 Sullivan (R) R+ 13.3 R+ 15.7 R+ 2.4
OK 2 Boren (D) R+ 5.3 R+ 13.7 R+ 8.4
OK 3 Lucas (R) R+ 18.3 R+ 23.7 R+ 5.4
OK 4 Cole (R) R+ 13.8 R+ 17.7 R+ 3.9
OK 5 Fallin (R) R+ 12.5 R+ 12.7 R+ 0.2
OR 1 Wu (D) D+ 4.9 D+ 8.0 D+ 3.1
OR 2 Walden (R) R+ 11.9 R+ 9.9 D+ 2.0
OR 3 Blumenauer (D) D+ 16.8 D+ 18.9 D+ 2.1
OR 4 Defazio (D) R+ 0.9 D+ 1.6 D+ 2.5
OR 5 Schrader (D) R+ 0.0 D+ 1.4 D+ 1.4
PA 1 Brady (D) D+ 35.3 D+ 35.2 R+ 0.1
PA 2 Fattah (D) D+ 38.4 D+ 37.7 R+ 0.6
PA 3 Dahlkemper (D) R+ 2.0 R+ 2.7 R+ 0.7
PA 4 Altmire (D) R+ 3.3 R+ 6.3 R+ 3.0
PA 5 Thompson (R) R+ 10.4 R+ 9.5 D+ 0.9
PA 6 Gerlach (R) D+ 1.5 D+ 4.1 D+ 2.6
PA 7 Sestak (D) D+ 3.0 D+ 3.6 D+ 0.6
PA 8 Murphy (D) D+ 2.5 D+ 1.8 R+ 0.7
PA 9 Shuster (R) R+ 15.7 R+ 16.9 R+ 1.2
PA 10 Carney (D) R+ 8.4 R+ 8.5 R+ 0.1
PA 11 Kanjorski (D) D+ 4.8 D+ 4.1 R+ 0.8
PA 12 Murtha (D) D+ 3.8 R+ 1.0 R+ 4.7
PA 13 Schwartz (D) D+ 7.3 D+ 6.6 R+ 0.8
PA 14 Doyle (D) D+ 21.1 D+ 19.0 R+ 2.1
PA 15 Dent (R) D+ 0.7 D+ 2.1 D+ 1.3
PA 16 Pitts (R) R+ 12.0 R+ 7.8 D+ 4.2
PA 17 Holden (D) R+ 7.4 R+ 6.0 D+ 1.4
PA 18 Murphy (R) R+ 2.8 R+ 6.0 R+ 3.2
PA 19 Platts (R) R+ 13.0 R+ 11.5 D+ 1.5
RI 1 Kennedy (D) D+ 15.6 D+ 13.6 R+ 2.1
RI 2 Langevin (D) D+ 11.8 D+ 9.0 R+ 2.8
SC 1 Brown (R) R+ 10.4 R+ 10.5 R+ 0.1
SC 2 Wilson (R) R+ 9.7 R+ 8.8 D+ 0.9
SC 3 Barrett (R) R+ 14.7 R+ 16.5 R+ 1.9
SC 4 Inglis (R) R+ 15.3 R+ 14.7 D+ 0.7
SC 5 Spratt (D) R+ 6.4 R+ 6.8 R+ 0.4
SC 6 Clyburn (D) D+ 10.6 D+ 11.6 D+ 1.0
SD AL Herseth (D) R+ 10.7 R+ 8.9 D+ 1.9
TN 1 Roe (R) R+ 14.7 R+ 20.9 R+ 6.3
TN 2 Duncan (R) R+ 11.9 R+ 16.2 R+ 4.3
TN 3 Wamp (R) R+ 9.4 R+ 13.3 R+ 3.9
TN 4 Davis (D) R+ 4.1 R+ 13.2 R+ 9.1
TN 5 Cooper (D) D+ 5.3 D+ 3.1 R+ 2.2
TN 6 Gordon (D) R+ 4.5 R+ 12.5 R+ 8.0
TN 7 Blackburn (R) R+ 12.6 R+ 17.4 R+ 4.7
TN 8 Tanner (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 6.0 R+ 5.7
TN 9 Cohen (D) D+ 17.3 D+ 22.7 D+ 5.4
TX 1 Gohmert (R) R+ 17.7 R+ 20.2 R+ 2.5
TX 2 Poe (R) R+ 12.5 R+ 12.7 R+ 0.2
TX 3 Johnson (R) R+ 18.0 R+ 13.5 D+ 4.5
TX 4 Hall (R) R+ 17.5 R+ 21.1 R+ 3.6
TX 5 Hensarling (R) R+ 16.0 R+ 16.5 R+ 0.5
TX 6 Barton (R) R+ 15.5 R+ 14.2 D+ 1.3
TX 7 Culberson (R) R+ 16.0 R+ 12.5 D+ 3.5
TX 8 Brady (R) R+ 20.0 R+ 24.2 R+ 4.2
TX 9 Green (D) D+ 20.0 D+ 22.3 D+ 2.3
TX 10 McCaul (R) R+ 13.7 R+ 10.0 D+ 3.7
TX 11 Conaway (R) R+ 26.0 R+ 28.2 R+ 2.2
TX 12 Granger (R) R+ 15.0 R+ 16.5 R+ 1.5
TX 13 Thornberry (R) R+ 25.5 R+ 28.7 R+ 3.2
TX 14 Paul (R) R+ 15.0 R+ 18.1 R+ 3.0
TX 15 Hinojosa (D) D+ 2.0 D+ 3.3 D+ 1.3
TX 16 Reyes (D) D+ 8.2 D+ 10.0 D+ 1.8
TX 17 Edwards (D) R+ 18.5 R+ 20.1 R+ 1.5
TX 18 Jackson-Lee (D) D+ 22.5 D+ 23.7 D+ 1.2
TX 19 Neugebauer (R) R+ 25.5 R+ 26.1 R+ 0.6
TX 20 Gonzalez (D) D+ 7.0 D+ 8.1 D+ 1.1
TX 21 Smith (R) R+ 17.0 R+ 13.5 D+ 3.5
TX 22 Olson (R) R+ 15.0 R+ 12.5 D+ 2.5
TX 23 Rodriguez (D) R+ 4.7 R+ 4.0 D+ 0.8
TX 24 Marchant (R) R+ 16.0 R+ 11.5 D+ 4.5
TX 25 Doggett (D) D+ 1.0 D+ 5.6 D+ 4.6
TX 26 Burgess (R) R+ 13.0 R+ 13.0 R+ 0.0
TX 27 Ortiz (D) R+ 2.0 R+ 2.0 D+ 0.1
TX 28 Cuellar (D) R+ 1.5 R+ 0.2 D+ 1.3
TX 29 Green (D) D+ 7.0 D+ 7.8 D+ 0.8
TX 30 Johnson (D) D+ 25.0 D+ 27.3 D+ 2.3
TX 31 Carter (R) R+ 17.2 R+ 13.7 D+ 3.5
TX 32 Sessions (R) R+ 11.5 R+ 8.0 D+ 3.5
UT 1 Bishop (R) R+ 22.5 R+ 21.5 D+ 1.1
UT 2 Matheson (D) R+ 17.7 R+ 14.9 D+ 2.8
UT 3 Chaffetz (R) R+ 27.1 R+ 25.8 D+ 1.3
VA 1 Wittman (R) R+ 9.7 R+ 7.3 D+ 2.4
VA 2 Nye (D) R+ 6.6 R+ 4.7 D+ 1.9
VA 3 Scott (D) D+ 17.5 D+ 20.1 D+ 2.6
VA 4 Forbes (R) R+ 5.6 R+ 4.5 D+ 1.1
VA 5 Perriello (D) R+ 6.4 R+ 5.3 D+ 1.2
VA 6 Goodlatte (R) R+ 12.3 R+ 11.8 D+ 0.4
VA 7 Cantor (R) R+ 11.4 R+ 8.8 D+ 2.6
VA 8 Moran (D) D+ 12.8 D+ 16.0 D+ 3.1
VA 9 Boucher (D) R+ 8.2 R+ 11.3 R+ 3.2
VA 10 Wolf (R) R+ 6.2 R+ 2.2 D+ 3.9
VA 11 Connolly (D) R+ 1.6 D+ 2.3 D+ 3.9
VT AL Welch (D) D+ 8.3 D+ 13.2 D+ 4.9
WA 1 Inslee (D) D+ 7.0 D+ 9.0 D+ 2.0
WA 2 Larsen (D) D+ 2.0 D+ 3.4 D+ 1.3
WA 3 Baird (D) R+ 0.6 R+ 0.2 D+ 0.4
WA 4 Hastings (R) R+ 13.9 R+ 13.0 D+ 1.0
WA 5 McMorris (R) R+ 7.8 R+ 6.8 D+ 0.9
WA 6 Dicks (D) D+ 4.9 D+ 4.9 D+ 0.0
WA 7 McDermott (D) D+ 29.5 D+ 31.5 D+ 2.0
WA 8 Reichert (R) D+ 1.8 D+ 3.3 D+ 1.6
WA 9 Smith (D) D+ 4.9 D+ 5.3 D+ 0.5
WI 1 Ryan (R) R+ 3.1 R+ 2.5 D+ 0.6
WI 2 Baldwin (D) D+ 12.7 D+ 14.9 D+ 2.3
WI 3 Kind (D) D+ 2.0 D+ 3.8 D+ 1.8
WI 4 Moore (D) D+ 19.9 D+ 21.7 D+ 1.8
WI 5 Sensenbrenner (R) R+ 13.3 R+ 12.3 D+ 1.0
WI 6 Petri (R) R+ 5.7 R+ 4.2 D+ 1.4
WI 7 Obey (D) D+ 1.0 D+ 2.3 D+ 1.3
WI 8 Kagen (D) R+ 4.7 R+ 1.7 D+ 2.9
WV 1 Mollohan (D) R+ 6.3 R+ 9.0 R+ 2.7
WV 2 Capito (R) R+ 5.9 R+ 7.8 R+ 1.9
WV 3 Rahall (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 6.6 R+ 6.3
WY AL Lummis (R) R+ 20.3 R+ 19.6 D+ 0.7

sicembears :: New Swing State PVIs for All Congressional Districts
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Yup
I like these numbers a lot more.  Just from intuitiveness and looking at my own state, the numbers make a lot more sense than Cook's.

MN-6 as a R+9.5  No way, that is why Bachmann almost got beat in 08, she doesn't represent a district that is as wing-nut crazy as she is.  SPVI R+7 makes a lot more sense.

Same with MN-3, which now got more Democratic instead of Republican, which is mzkes sense since the district has gotten more Democratic than Republican.

Yup, I really hope Cook reads this, his system is just simply flawed.


They do "feel" better
The numbers definitely feel more correct.  That's because the 2000 and 2004 elections were so close that the flaw in the old Cook PVI formula didn't make much difference.  So, the numbers we're all used to were pretty accurate for measuring how Republican or Democratic a particular district was compared to the nation as a whole, which is what this formula does as well.  With Obama winning by so much in 2008, however, the flaw in the Cook formula really leads to funny looking numbers that don't translate well to what we're used to.  I bet Cook changes his formula when he comes out with the new numbers and uses this formula or some other like it.

[ Parent ]
Can we get these lists saved somewhere?
In like the quick links section or such?

Also, can someone calculate the 2008-only and 2004-only PVIs (like, without averaging two years)?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


*Recommend Diary*
That's a lot of work, and it looks good.  I tip my hat to you, sicembears.  

Thank, but
Real credit goes to David, Crisitunity, James, and everyone who worked to compile the election results in all 435 congressional districts.  THAT was a lot of original work.  Once I could copy and paste their work, the rest was not too difficult.

[ Parent ]
Top 20 Republican Leaning Districts
State     CD     Member                     Party           Old SPVI         New SPVI           Change    
TX 13 Thornberry (R) R+ 25.5 R+ 28.7 R+ 3.2
AL 6 Bachus (R) R+ 25.9 R+ 28.6 R+ 2.7
TX 11 Conaway (R) R+ 26.0 R+ 28.2 R+ 2.2
GA 9 Deal (R) R+ 23.5 R+ 27.6 R+ 4.1
TX 19 Neugebauer (R) R+ 25.5 R+ 26.1 R+ 0.6
UT 3 Chaffetz (R) R+ 27.1 R+ 25.8 D+ 1.3
AL 4 Aderholt (R) R+ 16.5 R+ 25.5 R+ 9.0
TX 8 Brady (R) R+ 20.0 R+ 24.2 R+ 4.2
LA 1 Scalise (R) R+ 19.6 R+ 23.9 R+ 4.4
NE 3 Smith (R) R+ 24.4 R+ 23.9 D+ 0.4
OK 3 Lucas (R) R+ 18.3 R+ 23.7 R+ 5.4
KS 1 Moran (R) R+ 21.1 R+ 22.8 R+ 1.7
UT 2 Matheson (D) R+ 22.5 R+ 21.5 D+ 1.1
TX 4 Hall (R) R+ 17.5 R+ 21.1 R+ 3.6
FL 1 Miller (R) R+ 20.0 R+ 21.1 R+ 1.0
TN 1 Roe (R) R+ 14.7 R+ 20.9 R+ 6.3
TX 1 Gohmert (R) R+ 17.7 R+ 20.2 R+ 2.5
TX 17 Edwards (D) R+ 18.5 R+ 20.1 R+ 1.5
GA 11 Gingrey (R) R+ 17.7 R+ 20.1 R+ 2.4
WY AL Lummis (R) R+ 20.3 R+ 19.6 D+ 0.7


You may want to make a list of the top twenty movements
in both directions.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Top 20 Democratic Leaning Districts
State     CD     Member                     Party           Old SPVI         New SPVI           Change    
NY 16 Serrano (D) D+ 42.9 D+ 41.2 R+ 1.6
NY 15 Rangel (D) D+ 42.2 D+ 41.2 R+ 1.0
PA 2 Fattah (D) D+ 38.4 D+ 37.7 R+ 0.6
NY 10 Towns (D) D+ 39.8 D+ 37.7 R+ 2.0
NY 11 Clarke (D) D+ 39.0 D+ 37.7 R+ 1.3
CA 9 Lee (D) D+ 36.9 D+ 37.1 D+ 0.3
IL 2 Jackson (D) D+ 34.0 D+ 35.8 D+ 1.8
NY 6 Meeks (D) D+ 37.3 D+ 35.7 R+ 1.6
CA 8 Pelosi (D) D+ 35.3 D+ 35.5 D+ 0.3
PA 1 Brady (D) D+ 35.3 D+ 35.2 R+ 0.1
CA 33 Watson (D) D+ 35.2 D+ 34.6 R+ 0.6
IL 7 Davis (D) D+ 33.9 D+ 34.3 D+ 0.4
FL 17 Meek (D) D+ 34.5 D+ 34.2 R+ 0.3
IL 1 Rush (D) D+ 34.0 D+ 33.8 R+ 0.2
MI 14 Conyers (D) D+ 32.9 D+ 33.3 D+ 0.4
NJ 10 Payne (D) D+ 33.4 D+ 33.3 R+ 0.1
NY 12 Velazquez (D) D+ 32.7 D+ 32.6 R+ 0.1
OH 11 Fudge (D) D+ 32.1 D+ 32.6 D+ 0.5
MA 8 Capuano (D) D+ 32.3 D+ 32.1 R+ 0.2
MI 13 Kilpatrick (D) D+ 31.4 D+ 31.8 D+ 0.4


We've got their 13th and 18th most
and they've got our...whatth?  Cao isn't even on here.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
LA-02
I think everyone expected the PVI for that district to become a bit less Democratic, even with Obama on the ballot.  It happens with tens of thousands of AA voters disappear from a district.

[ Parent ]
Some of the more interesting results
 AK   AL   Young   (R)   R+ 14.9   R+ 13.1   D+ 1.8
AL   2   Bright   (D)   R+ 13.8   R+ 16.5   R+ 2.7
AL   5   Griffith   (D)   R+ 7.4   R+ 12.3   R+ 5.0
DE   AL   Castle   (R)   D+ 5.6   D+ 6.9   D+ 1.3
GA   8   Marshall   (D)   R+ 9.0   R+ 10.0   R+ 1.0
ID   1   Minnick   (D)   R+ 19.8   R+ 17.7   D+ 2.1
IL   6   Roskam   (R)   R+ 3.3   D+ 0.6   D+ 3.9
IL   10   Kirk   (R)   D+ 3.0   D+ 6.1   D+ 3.1
IL   13   Biggert   (R)   R+ 5.4   R+ 1.4   D+ 3.9
IL   14   Foster   (D)   R+ 5.1   R+ 1.2   D+ 3.9
IL   18   Schock   (R)   R+ 6.1   R+ 5.7   D+ 0.3
LA   2   Cao   (R)   D+ 27.1   D+ 24.0   R+ 3.1
MD   1   Kratovil   (D)   R+ 10.5   R+ 12.4   R+ 1.9
MI   11   McCotter   (R)   R+ 2.0   R+ 0.4   D+ 1.6
MS   1   Childers   (D)   R+ 10.6   R+ 13.5   R+ 2.9
MS   4   Taylor   (D)   R+ 17.0   R+ 19.6   R+ 2.5
MT   AL   Rehberg   (R)   R+ 11.5   R+ 6.8   D+ 4.6
ND   AL   Pomeroy   (D)   R+ 13.8   R+ 10.1   D+ 3.7
OK   2   Boren   (D)   R+ 5.3   R+ 13.7   R+ 8.4
PA   6   Gerlach   (R)   D+ 1.5   D+ 4.1   D+ 2.6
PA   12   Murtha   (D)   D+ 3.8   R+ 1.0   R+ 4.7
SC   1   Brown   (R)   R+ 10.4   R+ 10.5   R+ 0.1
SD   AL   Herseth   (D)   R+ 10.7   R+ 8.9   D+ 1.9
TN   6   Gordon   (D)   R+ 4.5   R+ 12.5   R+ 8.0
TN   8   Tanner   (D)   R+ 0.3   R+ 6.0   R+ 5.7
TX   17   Edwards   (D)   R+ 18.5   R+ 20.1   R+ 1.5
TX   22   Olson   (R)   R+ 15.0   R+ 12.5   D+ 2.5
TX   23   Rodriguez   (D)   R+ 4.7   R+ 4.0   D+ 0.8
UT   2   Matheson   (D)   R+ 22.5   R+ 21.5   D+ 1.1
VA   2   Nye   (D)   R+ 6.6   R+ 4.7   D+ 1.9
VA   5   Perriello   (D)   R+ 6.4   R+ 5.3   D+ 1.2
VA   10   Wolf   (R)   R+ 6.2   R+ 2.2   D+ 3.9
WA   8   Reichert   (R)   D+ 1.8   D+ 3.3   D+ 1.6
WI   8   Kagen   (D)   R+ 4.7   R+ 1.7   D+ 2.9
WY   AL   Lummis   (R)   R+ 20.3   R+ 19.6   D+ 0.7

Cao (LA-02) still wins the worst PVI prize (D+24.0), but Matheson (UT-02) is our new champion (R+21.5), followed by Edwards (TX-17) (R+20.1), Taylor (MS-04) (R+19.6), Minnick (ID-01) (R+17.7), and Bright (AL-02) (R+16.5).  If Trauner (WY-AL) had won, we'd be holding a second R+19.6 district, but alas, he didn't.

Boren (OK-02) is next (R+13.7), as OK-02 swung hard right (R+8.4 movement).  Childers (MS-01) is at R+13.5, and Senator Begich (AK-Sen(AL)) is at R+13.1.  Gordon is next at R+12.5; TN-06 swung hard right (R+8.0 movement) as well (along with TN-08 (R+5.7 movement)).  Kratovil is at R+12.4, Griffith is at R+12.3, and Pomeroy (R+10.1) and Marshall (R+10.0).

TX-22 headed our way a tiny bit (D+2.5 movement), but that wasn't enough to save Lampson; he would have tied with Gordon at R+12.5.

Had Ketner won SC-01, she'd be right above Pomeroy (R+10.5).

In brighter news, though, McCotter's district is basically falling out from beneath him (R+2.0 to R+0.4).  Roskam finally gets a D+ (S)PVI to contend with (R+3.3 to D+0.6), Kirk went from D+3.0 to D+6.1 and now third after Castle (DE-AL, D+6.9) and Cao (D+24.0).  Fourth is Gerlach (PA-06) at D+4.1, and fifth is Reichert at D+3.3.  It's rather obvious who's better at this game. :)

The Dakotas became a bit less Republican, and Montana became significantly less Republican.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


Crap! How did I miss
Melancon (LA-05, R+11.6) clocking in between Griffith and Pomeroy, and Davis (TN-04, R+13.2) clocking in between Childers and Begich?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Top 20 Republican Shifting Districts
State     CD     Member                     Party             Old SPVI           New SPVI           Change    
TN 4 Davis (D) R+ 4.1 R+ 13.2 R+ 9.1
AL 4 Aderholt (R) R+ 16.5 R+ 25.5 R+ 9.0
NY 9 Weiner (D) D+ 13.0 D+ 4.6 R+ 8.5
OK 2 Boren (D) R+ 5.3 R+ 13.7 R+ 8.4
TN 6 Gordon (D) R+ 4.5 R+ 12.5 R+ 8.0
AR 1 Berry (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 7.9 R+ 7.6
KY 5 Rogers (R) R+ 8.8 R+ 15.9 R+ 7.1
AR 4 Ross (D) R+ 0.0 R+ 6.9 R+ 6.9
WV 3 Rahall (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 6.6 R+ 6.3
TN 1 Roe (R) R+ 14.7 R+ 20.9 R+ 6.3
LA 3 Melancon (D) R+ 5.6 R+ 11.6 R+ 6.0
TN 8 Tanner (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 6.0 R+ 5.7
LA 7 Boustany (R) R+ 8.2 R+ 13.7 R+ 5.5
FL 19 Wexler (D) D+ 20.0 D+ 14.6 R+ 5.4
OK 3 Lucas (R) R+ 18.3 R+ 23.7 R+ 5.4
NY 3 King (R) D+ 1.3 R+ 3.7 R+ 5.1
AL 5 Griffith (D) R+ 7.4 R+ 12.3 R+ 5.0
NY 8 Nadler (D) D+ 27.1 D+ 22.1 R+ 4.9
PA 12 Murtha (D) D+ 3.8 R+ 1.0 R+ 4.7
TN 7 Blackburn (R) R+ 12.6 R+ 17.4 R+ 4.7


TN-04
That seat is easily likely R when Davis leaves.  Thought it was going to be in 2010 for Governor, but he backed out.

[ Parent ]
Dixiecrat-ish Districts PVI Changes
there should be a paper written about the bottom falling out in some of these districts and the likely redneck factor... now can some Yankee explain some of those NY seats?

[ Parent ]
You don't have to be a Yankee to explain the NY districts
To take a cue from Rudy: "9-11"

[ Parent ]
Maybe a Lieberman Factor As Well
The election that dropped off the formula was 2000 when Lieberman was the VP candidate.  Even though Obama did well with Jewish voters, they may not have turned out as well in 2008 or supported Democrats as much as they did in 2000.  Note that Wexler's Florida district is also on the list.

[ Parent ]
Not to mention...
Bush 2000 was a uniquely bad candidate for the New York area. Not only did Republican numbers rebound with 9/11, but they were unnaturally low to begin with.  

[ Parent ]
McCain was the ideal candidate
Tough on foreign policy due to 9/11 yet still seen as somewhat moderate.

Maybe given em 4 years?


[ Parent ]
All the TN numbers are wacky
Gore's home state advantage in 2000 artificially inflated the PVI in those districts. (Yes, he lost TN, but not by the whopping margins Kerry and Obama lost it by.)  

[ Parent ]
Let's start working on AR and WV first
then KY, TX, MS, AL, GA, NE, and SC,
then TN, OK, and KS.

Of course, we can also work on ID and WY simultaneously, and UT after those.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Of those mentioned
AR, WV, TX, MS and GA would seem to show the most promise.  Texas and Mississippi are just plain due to demographics.

[ Parent ]
Top 20 Democratic Shifting Districts
State     CD     Member                     Party             Old SPVI           New SPVI           Change    
IN 7 Carson (D) D+ 7.8 D+ 13.6 D+ 5.9
GA 13 Scott (D) D+ 9.0 D+ 14.6 D+ 5.7
TN 9 Cohen (D) D+ 17.3 D+ 22.7 D+ 5.4
IL 8 Bean (D) R+ 6.1 R+ 0.9 D+ 5.1
HI 2 Hirono (D) D+ 8.9 D+ 14.0 D+ 5.1
VT AL Welch (D) D+ 8.3 D+ 13.2 D+ 4.9
NC 12 Watt (D) D+ 10.8 D+ 15.6 D+ 4.9
HI 1 Abercrombie (D) D+ 6.2 D+ 11.0 D+ 4.8
MT AL Rehberg (R) R+ 11.5 R+ 6.8 D+ 4.6
TX 25 Doggett (D) D+ 1.0 D+ 5.6 D+ 4.6
TX 24 Marchant (R) R+ 16.0 R+ 11.5 D+ 4.5
TX 3 Johnson (R) R+ 18.0 R+ 13.5 D+ 4.5
PA 16 Pitts (R) R+ 12.0 R+ 7.8 D+ 4.2
VA 10 Wolf (R) R+ 6.2 R+ 2.2 D+ 3.9
IL 13 Biggert (R) R+ 5.4 R+ 1.4 D+ 3.9
IL 14 Foster (D) R+ 5.1 R+ 1.2 D+ 3.9
MI 3 Ehlers (R) R+ 9.9 R+ 6.0 D+ 3.9
IL 6 Roskam (R) R+ 3.3 D+ 0.6 D+ 3.9
VA 11 Connolly (D) R+ 1.6 D+ 2.3 D+ 3.9
ND AL Pomeroy (D) R+ 13.8 R+ 10.1 D+ 3.7


Yeah, Montana is a big mover in our direction (yay!)
Also, the ground is disappearing beneath Biggert, while Foster's seat is quickly becoming safe.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Ya
Foster probably has one real election left before he gets a more favorable seat in 2012.  

Biggert probably won't stick around for too much longer, and even if she does her district will probably be weakened in 2012.


[ Parent ]
Time to see how much longer the auras of invincibility last
around these people: Kirk, Roskam, Biggert, McCotter, Calvert, Gerlach, Castle.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
The most vulnerable
But the target list of R+5 or lower includes Gallegly, Dreier, Bono, Bilbray, Lungren, Calvert, Rohrabacher, Young, Putnam, Buchanan, Rooney, Ros-Lehtinen, Diaz-Balart (25th), Latham, Roskam, Biggert, Manzullo, Cao, Camp, Upton, Rogers, McCotter, Paulsen, LoBiondo, Lance, King, Turner, Tiberi, LaTourette, Gerlach, Dent, Forbes, Wolf, Ryan, and Petri.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
He's on the list


30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Democrats in Republican Leaning Districts (73)
<
State     CD     Member                     Party           Old SPVI           New SPVI           Change    
UT 2 Matheson (D) R+ 22.5 R+ 21.5 D+ 1.1
TX 17 Edwards (D) R+ 18.5 R+ 20.1 R+ 1.5
MS 4 Taylor (D) R+ 17.0 R+ 19.6 R+ 2.5
ID 1 Minnick (D) R+ 19.8 R+ 17.7 D+ 2.1
AL 2 Bright (D) R+ 13.8 R+ 16.5 R+ 2.7
MO 4 Skelton (D) R+ 11.4 R+ 14.4 R+ 2.9
OK 2 Boren (D) R+ 5.3 R+ 13.7 R+ 8.4
MS 1 Childers (D) R+ 10.6 R+ 13.5 R+ 2.9
TN 4 Davis (D) R+ 4.1 R+ 13.2 R+ 9.1
TN 6 Gordon (D) R+ 4.5 R+ 12.5 R+ 8.0
MD 1 Kratovil (D) R+ 10.5 R+ 12.4 R+ 1.9
AL 5 Griffith (D) R+ 7.4 R+ 12.3 R+ 5.0
LA 3 Melancon (D) R+ 5.6 R+ 11.6 R+ 6.0
VA 9 Boucher (D) R+ 8.2 R+ 11.3 R+ 3.2
ND AL Pomeroy (D) R+ 13.8 R+ 10.1 D+ 3.7
GA 8 Marshall (D) R+ 9.0 R+ 10.0 R+ 1.0
WV 1 Mollohan (D) R+ 6.3 R+ 9.0 R+ 2.7
SD AL Herseth (D) R+ 10.7 R+ 8.9 D+ 1.9
KY 6 Chandler (D) R+ 7.4 R+ 8.6 R+ 1.2
PA 10 Carney (D) R+ 8.4 R+ 8.5 R+ 0.1
IN 8 Ellsworth (D) R+ 9.3 R+ 8.2 D+ 1.1
AR 1 Berry (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 7.9 R+ 7.6
AR 4 Ross (D) R+ 0.0 R+ 6.9 R+ 6.9
SC 5 Spratt (D) R+ 6.4 R+ 6.8 R+ 0.4
WV 3 Rahall (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 6.6 R+ 6.3
OH 18 Space (D) R+ 6.7 R+ 6.5 D+ 0.1
IN 9 Hill (D) R+ 7.9 R+ 6.3 D+ 1.6
PA 4 Altmire (D) R+ 3.3 R+ 6.3 R+ 3.0
TN 8 Tanner (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 6.0 R+ 5.7
NC 11 Shuler (D) R+ 7.6 R+ 6.0 D+ 1.6
PA 17 Holden (D) R+ 7.4 R+ 6.0 D+ 1.4
AZ 1 Kirkpatrick (D) R+ 2.8 R+ 5.8 R+ 3.0
CO 4 Markey (D) R+ 9.1 R+ 5.8 D+ 3.4
NM 2 Teague (D) R+ 6.6 R+ 5.8 D+ 0.9
NY 29 Massa (D) R+ 5.7 R+ 5.5 D+ 0.1
FL 2 Boyd (D) R+ 3.0 R+ 5.5 R+ 2.5
NC 7 McIntyre (D) R+ 3.5 R+ 5.5 R+ 2.0
VA 5 Perriello (D) R+ 6.4 R+ 5.3 D+ 1.2
MN 7 Peterson (D) R+ 6.3 R+ 5.1 D+ 1.2
CO 3 Salazar (D) R+ 6.3 R+ 4.8 D+ 1.6
AZ 5 Mitchell (D) R+ 4.6 R+ 4.8 R+ 0.1
VA 2 Nye (D) R+ 6.6 R+ 4.7 D+ 1.9
AR 2 Snyder (D) R+ 0.5 R+ 4.5 R+ 4.0
AZ 8 Giffords (D) R+ 2.3 R+ 4.5 R+ 2.2
FL 24 Kosmas (D) R+ 3.5 R+ 4.2 R+ 0.7
NY 13 McMahon (D) D+ 0.1 R+ 4.2 R+ 4.3
TX 23 Rodriguez (D) R+ 4.7 R+ 4.0 D+ 0.8
OH 16 Boccieri (D) R+ 4.4 R+ 3.7 D+ 0.7
KS 3 Moore (D) R+ 5.2 R+ 3.2 D+ 1.9
NY 19 Hall (D) R+ 2.3 R+ 2.7 R+ 0.4
PA 3 Dahlkemper (D) R+ 2.0 R+ 2.7 R+ 0.7
MI 1 Stupak (D) R+ 3.1 R+ 2.5 D+ 0.6
NY 20 (D) R+ 3.4 R+ 2.5 D+ 0.9
OH 6 Wilson (D) R+ 0.5 R+ 2.2 R+ 1.7
IN 2 Donnelly (D) R+ 4.8 R+ 2.2 D+ 2.6
FL 8 Grayson (D) R+ 4.0 R+ 2.2 D+ 1.8
NC 8 Kissell (D) R+ 3.8 R+ 2.0 D+ 1.8
NY 24 Arcuri (D) R+ 1.3 R+ 2.0 R+ 0.7
MI 7 Schauer (D) R+ 3.1 R+ 2.0 D+ 1.1
NC 2 Etheridge (D) R+ 3.3 R+ 2.0 D+ 1.3
TX 27 Ortiz (D) R+ 2.0 R+ 2.0 D+ 0.1
WI 8 Kagen (D) R+ 4.7 R+ 1.7 D+ 2.9
IL 14 Foster (D) R+ 5.1 R+ 1.2 D+ 3.9
CA 11 McNerney (D) R+ 3.8 R+ 1.2 D+ 2.6
MN 1 Walz (D) R+ 1.6 R+ 1.2 D+ 0.4
PA 12 Murtha (D) D+ 3.8 R+ 1.0 R+ 4.7
IL 11 Halvorson (D) R+ 1.8 R+ 0.9 D+ 0.8
IL 8 Bean (D) R+ 6.1 R+ 0.9 D+ 5.1
NH 1 Shea-Porter (D) R+ 1.1 R+ 0.5 D+ 0.6
NJ 3 Adler (D) D+ 2.8 R+ 0.5 R+ 3.3
TX 28 Cuellar (D) R+ 1.5 R+ 0.2 D+ 1.3
NY 1 Bishop (D) D+ 2.6 R+ 0.2 R+ 2.8
WA 3 Baird (D) R+ 0.6 R+ 0.2 D+ 0.4


I didn't know about Boucher!
And I forgot about Skelton.  How could I...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Skelton's seat
Of all the very old Democrats in red seats, his is the most obvious loss once he retires.  Too bad he doesn't have a son to take over once he's gone.  The name Skelton is probably the only Democratic name that can win there.

[ Parent ]
Does he still have time?
Get at it Mr and Mrs Skelton.

In all seriousness, meh, whatever.  And Taylor's, I'm over it.  Gimme Delware-Al and IL-10 and we'll call it even.


[ Parent ]
Republicans in Democratic Leaning Districts (10)
State     CD     Member                     Party           Old SPVI           New SPVI           Change    
LA 2 Cao (R) D+ 27.1 D+ 24.0 R+ 3.1
DE AL Castle (R) D+ 5.6 D+ 6.9 D+ 1.3
IL 10 Kirk (R) D+ 3.0 D+ 6.1 D+ 3.1
PA 6 Gerlach (R) D+ 1.5 D+ 4.1 D+ 2.6
WA 8 Reichert (R) D+ 1.8 D+ 3.3 D+ 1.6
PA 15 Dent (R) D+ 0.7 D+ 2.1 D+ 1.3
NJ 2 Lobiondo (R) D+ 3.1 D+ 0.8 R+ 2.3
IL 6 Roskam (R) R+ 3.3 D+ 0.6 D+ 3.9
IA 4 Latham (R) R+ 0.5 D+ 0.1 D+ 0.6
OH 12 Tiberi (R) R+ 1.5 D+ 0.0 D+ 1.6


How We Do in Different SPVI Categories
SPVI Range               Democrats     Republicans    
D+6-10362
D+0-5427
R+0-53832
R+6-102150
R+11-15945


You forgot R+ 16-20 and R+ 21-25
:D.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
this turned into one kick ass thread
period.  thanks sicembears!

and what a feel good thread too!
fun reading through and looking at the win percentages to compare to and being like, holy shit, we did how well in what district?

[ Parent ]
Matherson and Bishop are switched
Unfortunately that means several of your comment charts are also wrong.


28, Unenrolled, MA-08

Hmm.
Dang.  I should have noticed that.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Puts Matheson at 5th
Between Bright and Skelton.

And I just now realized that there's a Democrat named Bishop and a Republican named Bishop.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Thanks
Thanks for pointing out.  Not sure how I managed to do that, but diary has now been edited to correct the mistake.

[ Parent ]
Question
I calculated some SPVIs for myself and get slightly different numbers. Did you use the rounded up district results from the "Presidential Vote by CD" spreadsheet?. That would explain it because I used numbers including the first decimal digits for both 2004 and 2008. (I took the 2004 results from a spreadsheet in a diary by californianintexas. Unfortunately this spreadsheet is now somehow destroyed)

Yes
I did use the numbers from presidential vote by CD.  So, there likely is a small margin of error due to rounding done there.  What kind of differences are you getting--most same? usually off by 0.1%? biggest difference?

To really be precise, we would need the actual vote totals for each of the districts.  But, not sure where to get them.


[ Parent ]
My numbers
Here are the numbers which I've calculated based on the district results including the first decimal digits  (I took the 2008 results from the SP-Crowdsourcing-Diaries  and the 2004 results from the spreadsheet here.)

LA-02 Cao        D+24.0
DE-AL Castle     D+7.0
IL-10 Kirk       D+6.2  
PA-06 Gerlach    D+3.8
WA-08 Reichert   D+3.2
PA-15 Dent       D+2.0
NJ-02 Lobiondo   D+0.9
IL-06 Roskam     D+0.4
OH-12 Tiberi     D+0.2
IA-04 Latham     D+0.1
MI-11 McCotter   R+0.4
MN-03 Paulsen    R+0.4
MI-06 Upton      R+0.6
FL-10 Young      R+0.8  
NY-23 McHugh     R+1.0
IL-13 Biggert    R+1.4
MI-08 Rogers     R+1.7
NJ-07 Lance      R+1.9
IL-16 Manzullo   R+2.0
WI-01 Ryan       R+2.1
VA-10 Wolf          R+2.3
OH-14 LaTourette    R+2.8
FL-18 Ros-Lehtinen  R+2.9
CA-50 Bilbray       R+3.1
CA-26 Dreier        R+3.2    
CA-45 Bono          R+3.4
MI-04 Camp          R+3.5
NY-03 King          R+3.6
CA-24 Gallegly      R+3.8
MN-02 Kline         R+3.9
VA-04 Forbes        R+4.4
OH-03 Turner        R+4.5
WI-06 Petri         R+4.5
FL-16 Rooney        R+4.6
FL-25 Diaz-Balart   R+4.7
MI-10 Miller        R+5.1
FL-21 Diaz-Balart   R+5.3
Il-18 Schock        R+5.3
NV-02 Heller        R+5.4
CA-03 Lungren       R+5.4
FL-13 Buchanan      R+5.5
CA-46 Rohrabacher   R+5.7
CA-48 Campbell      R+5.7
Fl-15 Posey         R+5.7
NY-26 Lee           R+5.8
FL-12 Putnam        R+5.8
CA-25 McKeon        R+5.8
NJ-04 Smith         R+5.8
CA-44 Calvert       R+5.9
PA-18 Murphy        R+6.2

Unfortunately the spreadsheet in californianintexas diary is now useless because someone sorted it the wrong way. Maybe he can repair it.


[ Parent ]
Just go through the seven diaries
where the results were rolled out; you can get actual vote totals there. (Or scroll down to the state links at the bottom of the pres-by-CD link; those will take you to each of the states' databases.)  

[ Parent ]
Northeast comparison
I looked at the Cook and Swigstate PVIs for all 17 Northeast Republicans in  the House.  That's a convenient size representing 10% of all Republicans and a higher percentage of vulnerable ones.

All 17 had more Republican districts in 2008 according to Cook's formula, something that seems unlikely.  Under the Swingstate version, 9 had more Republican districts and 8 had more Democratic districts.  On the face of it, this seems more likely.

There does seem to be some sorting out going on here.  Using SPVI, DE-At Large, PA-6, PA-15 have all become stronger targets for a Democratic pickup, particularly the first two.  NJ-2 still leans Dem but by a smaller margin.  NY-23 has become slightly more Democratic while NY-3 has moved more Republican.  John McHugh's district (R+1.0) is now the top target in NY (which makes sense, they elected a Democrat to the State Senate).

NJ-5 moves from R+4.8 to R+7.0.  That makes sense.  Garrett had a decent opponent who was well funded but Republicans managed to stop the continuing drop in Garrett's share of the vote and pick up 1 point (from 55% to 56%) when neutral observers in NJ expected Garrett to slip to 52 or 53%.


I thought I understood the concept, but.....
maybe I don't.

First, thanks for the effort you put into this.  After reading all the comments, I decided to test it out with a congressman known to my family. So I looked at NJ-02. In 2004, Kerry took 49% of the vote in the district, while he took 48.3 nationally. In 2008, Obama took 54% of the vote in the district and 52.9% nationally.  So voter percentage in the district increased by 5%, while nationally, the Democratic percentage increased by 4.6%. Both in terms of raw percentage and amount of movement, the district outperformed the national numbers, and yet it is given an R+ rating.  What exactly is that supposed to be telling me?


NJ-02 Has a D+ Rating
You're looking at the wrong column.  The first column is the SPVI for the district before the 2008 presidential election and is based on the 2000 and 2004 elections.  The second column is the current SPVI and is based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.  NJ-02 has a current SPVI of D+0.8.  So, based on the last two presidential elections, it is very slightly more Democratic leaning than the nation as a whole.  The third column is the change in SPVI from before the 2008 Presidential election to after the 2008 Presidential election (IOW, dropping out the 2000 results and substituting in the 2008 results).  Gore did better relative to his national results in NJ-02 than Obama did.  Thus, NJ-02's SPVI trended Republican, which is what the third column tells us.

[ Parent ]
NJ-02
Thanks for the explanation. Maybe I shouldn't be doing this analysis at 3 am.  Maybe....I need a life!

[ Parent ]
I do too!
Unfortunately, I am unemployed, so I have no need to be asleep at 3 a.m.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Join the club.
Unemployed people who are amateur political analysts/strategists at Swing State Project.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
3 AM antics
I belong to that club as well.

How long ago did you move from CA to TX? I did the reverse move long ago and have never looked back. While Texas was good to me, it never was my cup of tea (I was only there for a year and a half).

We should form a group and make ourselves heard. Let's call ourselves League of Swing Staters Organizing for Justififying Our Better Situations (LOSSOFJOBS).  Clearly, I have way too much time on my hands.


[ Parent ]
I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but.....
I did a test comparison at random of my numbers compared to yours (I used NJ-02, IL-06, FL-10, MI-09 and NJ-03) and came out with results similar to yours (some variances of +/- 0.1%), so I thought I now agreed with the overall formula, but...  I then computed the District of Columbia and used the following data:

                      2000     2004    2008                
US Dem % (raw)         48.38    48.26   52.87  
US Dem % (factored)    50.26    48.76   53.86    
DC Dem % (raw)         85.20    89.20   92.46    
DC Dem % (factored)    90.49    90.52   93.40

Using the agreed upon formula, I showed the change from 2004 to 2008 as R+0.3. First off, do you agree with the numbers? If so, is DC becoming a haven of Republicanism right before our very eyes? Clearly, DC votes in numbers that dictators dream of, Obama's numbers are an improvement on Gore's numbers all around,....and yet?

So, I am left with my original question, that is, what do these numbers tell us? In plain English, what does R+0.3 mean in the above example?  

Please understand, I'm not trying to be contrary, but obviously I am having difficulty understanding the meaning of the resulting numbers.

Also, I apologize for the presentation here. It looks fine when I enter, but the preview makes it turn out bizarre, and I have yet to figure out how to fix it.


Addendum
I understand that when using "factored" numbers the difference between Gore's local numbers and his national numbers was greater than Obama's difference.  When using raw numbers, Obama predominates. So this trending R is due solely to the effect of "third party power"?

[ Parent ]

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