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FL-Sen: Boyd and McCollum Are Out

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jan 28, 2009 at 5:36 PM EST


Rep. Allen Boyd announced today that he won't be running for the open Senate seat in Florida in 2010. While Boyd (fairly conservative even by Blue Dog standards) might have been a decent prospect in the general, he may not have been enthused about his prospects for making it out of the primary, where two more liberal Miami-area politicians, Rep. Kendrick Meek and State Sen. Dan Gelber, are already jockeying for position. As a bonus, this means not having to defend an open seat in the Republican-leaning FL-02 in the Panhandle.

On the Republican side of the ledger, Attorney General (and Clinton impeachment manager and two-time Senate loser) Bill McCollum also bowed out today. While he was the front-runner in the GOP field according to last week's Quinnipiac poll, that may have been based more on name recognition as a frequent statewide candidate (and certainly not on likeability).

Politico reports that it's still full speed ahead for two other GOPers: former State House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Connie Mack IV, although neither one has formally announced anything. On the Dem side, one other name cropped up yesterday, that hadn't been mentioned before: Tampa mayor Pam Iorio publicly expressed her interest in the race. She could make things interesting, as the I-4 Corridor becomes more of a locus of Democratic strength in Florida while Meek and Gelber divide the Miami-area vote.

Crisitunity :: FL-Sen: Boyd and McCollum Are Out
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Iorio
Sounds good on paper. Any skeletons?

Sinking feeling
I have a sinking feeling that Connie Mack will be the next Senator from Florida. Ewwwww.

Well, he wouldn't be the first Connie Mack to do so


[ Parent ]
Ugggg...
I was hoping McCollum would run.  He's their worst possible candidate.

Mack
Mack''s the favorite.  And probably the favorite in the general as well.

Don't count out Rubio
He'll have a lot of appeal with the influential south Florida Cuban-American republican voters as well as many younger republicans.  If another one or two well-known white repubs jump into their primary they could split the white vote and hand the nomination to Rubio.

[ Parent ]
Question
Would Rubio (or a generic Cuban Republican) be able to reach out to the more liberal Mexican/Puerto Rican/Dominican/Central & South American vote as well? Is there any precedent for that?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
IMHO, Rubio is overrated
Yeah he is good looking but he is a Diaz-Balart clone/type. Also, he may not have as much access to the cash necessary to win statewide. He is not particularly well known and a recent poll showed him with a net unfavorable rating. Besides, the Cuban-American vote is not that decisive in FL anymore...not even in the GOP primary. If all Rubio has is that, then he's lost already. If Mack gets in (and I can't see why he would pass it up unless he is worried about any embarassing details his divorce record), he's the GOP nominee and I would expect even Rubio to drop out.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Yes
Mel Martinez was pretty successful with all Hispanics in 2004

[ Parent ]
That was 2004
when Bush got 43% among Hispanics. that was before the immigration revealed, I hope clearly, to Hispanics, that in the House of the GOP, they are OPP.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Iorio is our best bet
for this seat.  I'd personally prefer Kathy Castor, but Iorio is the best choice here.

Kathy Castor vs Connie Mack IV?
I know we've beat the dynasty issue to death here at SSP, but I still find that gross.  Sorry.

BTW, are we calling them the Dynasty Wars yet?  

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
Looks like Boyd read my mind
He is unnecessarily too conservative for his district and for the Democratic primary. Even if he faced one liberal, he would not have had a chance. Also the details about his son's arrest would have been additional embarassment.

On the other hand, McCollum was surprising. I thought he really wanted to go to Washington but maybe he got word from the establishment that they would be going with Mack if he enters the race and he'd face the same result like last time when he lost to Martinez because of lack of establishment support. Oh well....

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


Iorio is good
I'm surprised she's considering running since she seemed more like a local-oriented person. She gets a lot of positive coverage in central Florida, so I think she would be a good candidate. Tampa is a very swing area as well and she definitely will go well with South Florida, so if she could win Tampa/St Petersburg in the general, she could offset any advantages from a Republican candidate in other areas.  

Female Democratic challengers
to open seats or incumbent GOP seats don't have a great record of winning the general. I tried to explain this with a theory of mine I laid out in an earlier post.

But there is a first time for everything no? I mean, we elected a black guy named Barack Hussein Obama, nuff said!

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Maybe in the House
But what about Senators Klobuchar, Hagan, Stabenow, Cantwell, McCaskill and Shaheen? Actually can't think of many strong female Senate candidates that haven't won in the last decade. Betty Castor and Inez Tenenbaum maybe?  

[ Parent ]
And the Sec. of State obviously


[ Parent ]
True..I focus on the House so much
I forget we have another chamber.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Well I think you have a point with the House


[ Parent ]
Women a plus in 2006
In 2006, Democratic men won 54.2% of the seats they contested against a Republican opponent; Democratic women did slightly better winning 55.8% of the seats in contested elections (53 of 95).  The same pattern held up with Republicans where the numbers were 50% for women and 46% for men.  Otoh, women lost a number of high profile races.  Two of the three big upset winners for Democrats in 2006 were women, Carol Shea-Porter and Nancy Boyda.

I didn't calculate the figures for 2008.  However I sure would not categorically state that women were bad candidates based on the data.  Florida has already elected a woman to the Senate, Republican Paula Hawkins.

One other thing, none of the 11 votes that defected on the stimulus bill came from a woman.    


[ Parent ]
Same deal with the fair pay bills
Even a number of republican women voted for the fair pay bills.

[ Parent ]
pam iorio
I think that based purely on a geographical basis, she is our best bet. if she could rack up a convincing victory in hillsborough (tampa) and neighboring pinellas (st. petersburg) and maybe even pasco, she would be a strong contender...

She would inevitably do well in the southeast, racking up 60-70% wins. It stands to see how she would do in the southwest, panhandle, and north in general.

Obama won florida for a few reasons:
1) he racked up a much larger victory in miami-dade
2) he dominated the I-4 corridor (mostly orlando)
3) he shrunk GOP margins in the southwest (Sarasota i.e.), Jacksonville (to a virtual tie!), and to a lesser extent in pensacola (panhandle)

I think pam iorio would be a great candidate


Her resume is pretty impressive, too
Popular two-term mayor, 3-term Hillsborough Co. elections supervisor, and two-term County Supervisor, all before the age of 50!

She's also done much on behalf of the environment as mayor, too.


[ Parent ]
Happy, but sad
Cant say how happy I am that McCollum decided not to run. Even though I was rooting for him in the 2004 primary, his track record is way too spotty.

BUT

I am not happy with Mack and his cheatting on his wife stuff. Cant say I would be a big cheerleader for him if hes nominated.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.


Mack was macking on Bono while married?
Is that what led to his divorce? If so, that is really shady..the bastard.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
The "family values" crowd in the GOP don't care
There are loads of examples of this among GOP'ers.  Their voters only care how they vote, not whether they practice what they preach.  If you think Mack's affairs are sordid check out Rep. Dan Burton of Indiana.  And that ass clown keeps getting re-elected.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

In September 1998, Burton admitted to fathering a son, born in 1983, with a former state employee.  After the admission, one report claimed, "During part of the 1970s and '80s, Dan Burton was known as the biggest skirt-chaser in the Indiana legislature ... Privately, some of his fellow Republicans expressed embarrassment. Lobbyists whispered about the stories of Burton's escapades. Statehouse reporters joked about him. Yet no one ever wrote about, or probably thought about writing anything. To the people who sent him first to the legislature and then to Congress, Burton was Mr. Conservative, the devout husband and father who espoused family values."

In August 2006, Burton remarried to Dr. Samia Tawil in Park City, Utah. She was the internist who cared for Burton's wife, Barbara, during her battle with cancer. Tawil and her first husband had divorced in 2005.



[ Parent ]
Classic IOIYAR
Kinda reminds me of when Dreir was outed and the LA newspapers decided that this was the proper time to show restraint and respect his personal life. What do you suppose would have happened if it were a Dem in a semi-marginal district who was having a same-sex relationship (or screw the gay part, just a relationship) with his ridiculously overpaid chief of staff?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
More info
Per a bit of googling I found stuff about Mack's divorce that's veering on the distasteful...not sure how well this will go over with the family values crowd in the FL GOP primary if Mack runs. But Mack cheated on his wife with Bono, soon after coming to Congress, and left his wife and kids broke to fend for themselves in a 1 bdrm appt in South Florida..oochiwally oochibangbang...this guy is a piece of work. How the hell was he re-elected?

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Well, now I know who I'm rooting for.
Go Mack! How many people can say that they cheated on their wife with a sitting Congresswoman?

[ Parent ]
Tax rebate
I know, its pretty sick. Im glad I dont live in either's district. I would be embarrsed. I will settle for having an occational throne in the side of his fellow Democrats district lol.

But this matter of their affair doesnt seem like it was ever really a big story. Maybe Im wrong as I live on the other side of the nation. I guess if theres no major glitsey lawsuit, or man on man action, its not that big of a deal with the media types.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.


[ Parent ]
The dude's a Mack-daddy playboy
and his current spouse is not a lay-low type either. Not that either trade is illegal but what's that saying about folks who live in glass houses...expect to hear some stuff in the GOP primary. It will be amusing watching the ever so righteous GOP faithful put their "values" behind their votes.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Off topic but I had to bring it up
This afternoon I was surfing the radio dial when I heard a right-wing commentator quote a Rasmussen poll.  We mentioned that Rasmussen polls said a majority of Americans always favor tax cuts over government spending.  So when I got home I checked Rasmussen's website.  The front page had this headline.

  "Most Say Tax Cuts Always Better Than Increased Spending."  

Then I clicked on the link and it went to this poll:

Survey of 1,000 Adults
January 26-27, 2009

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement... it's always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money?

Agree
53%

Disagree
24%

Not sure
22%

And then I remembered why we should take anything Rasmussen polls for a grain of salt.  This is the sorriest kind of push polling.  



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