Very nice

I was expecting a 10-14 point deficit in that race.  Being down only 8 with the incumbent at only 48% sounds good to me.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 00:04:12 AM UTC

I lived in TX-07 back in the day

The thing is, almost all these Texas district PVIs are way skewed at this point because of two elections involving Bush. They are Bush PVIs really, not partisan PVIs.

TX-07 especially is not as Republican as that PVI states, nowhere near that Republican really. The population inside loop 610 in Houston is probably more conservative than most urban centers, but is still quite liberal socially (although TX-07 also does contain many of the richest, toniest zip codes in Houston). The outer suburbs and exurbs of Houston are certainly not liberal, but the suburbs and exurbs all over the country are rapidly changing as people have had enough of Bush/Rove/DeLayism, and I'd bet TX-07 is not different.

Still uphill, still Texas. But changing fast. Skelly can pull this off.  

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by: Ron @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 00:06:52 AM UTC

Wow

Again, if true, very nice. Skelly has run a fantastic campaign and has a very good shot to win this one.

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by: Populista @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 00:10:21 AM UTC

This is a silk stocking district

In the northeast, it would be a great fit for a Democrat. In Texas, it's not so clear.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 00:14:39 AM UTC

Madia (MN-03) raises nearly a $1 Mill for 3Q

http://www.mncampaignreport.co...

A source has told MN Campaign Report that, at 2 p.m. today, the Madia campaign will announce that they have raised $997,632 for the quarter. This is a massive number. Madia has now raised over $2 million for his Congressional campaign.

That's a lot of damn money!  No wonder the RNCC is ready to concede that race.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 00:16:25 AM UTC

Wow!

Ashwin Madia rocks.

I believe it.

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by: Populista @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 00:46:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NRCC, NRSC, RNC

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:41:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

it could be closer:

Many Hispanics, but also Asians and Blacks have moved into the district since 2000, while this poll severely undersampled Asians and oversampled Whites. It's possible that Blacks may represent a higher-than-normal turnout, and we'll have to see about the Hispanics. If Skelly can win over the Independents, while gaining the rest of his Democratic base, he may be the victor on election day.

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by: KainIIIC @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 03:20:07 AM UTC

This is awesome

Michael Skelly is one of my favorite candidates this cycle.  I am hardly an idealist, but he is exactly the type of guy we need in Government today: a smart businessman who has actually built and accomplished things.  John Culberson is a typical right-wing DeLay clone: he has no ideas, zero legislative accomplishments, and plenty of wingnut rhetoric.  

I remember one of the very last polls of the WY-AL race in 2006 had Gary Trauner down seven points, so I know Skelly can make up this difference with undecideds breaking heavily against the incumbent.  Given the district and Culberson's weaknesses, this race absolutely can be won.  Heck, with Obama on track to perhaps get to 45% here, Skelly might be sitting pretty.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 04:31:03 AM UTC

I thought Kos said not to expect much?

What a tease!

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 13:24:14 PM UTC